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Average win rate for 1-2 NL at the casino


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#1 sepslugseven

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Posted 02 January 2005 - 09:35 PM

I curious to know if any of you have any idea what the average per hour win rate should be playing 1-2 NL holdem in the casino setting? I just want to know if im getting what i should be or possibly more than i should be.Over the weekend i spent 17 hours at the table and profit after seat rent was 1340 dollars.Let me knowChris

#2 JPWydman

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Posted 05 January 2005 - 06:38 PM

A solid win rate would be about 2.5 BB/100 hands...a great win rate is anything over that. Looks like you did about 78 bucks an hour. Well done. Curious...was your calculator broken? hehe
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#3 Smasharoo

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Posted 06 January 2005 - 12:50 AM

I curious to know if any of you have any idea what the average per hour win rate should be playing 1-2 NL holdem in the casino setting? I just want to know if im getting what i should be or possibly more than i should be.Over the weekend i spent 17 hours at the table and profit after seat rent was 1340 dollars. Luck.You can average way more than 2.5/BB playing NL with good game selection though.

#4 Provotrout

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Posted 22 February 2010 - 04:59 AM

I just started playing again in earnest and here are my stats so far:1-2 & 1-3 NL Casino Games (AC & 1 home game)58 hours$1,072 winnings$18/h win rate$119/session$200 buy-inDuring the course of the games, I've realized that my game has a long way to go in order to maximize profitability. There are a lot of opportunities for the savvy player in live 1-2NL, it's just a matter of developing the skill required to spot them.Anyhow, those are my stats. I play a consistent & disciplined game, throw in occasional bluffs to pay for blinds or take advantage of weak tight players, and bet the moon against the aggressive types. Despite the sample size being small, the win rate has consistently fluctuated between $24/h and $14/h, so I think this sort of performance is reasonably close to accurate long term. Lots of poker to be played, but I figure these are pretty respectable numbers for a 1-2 NL live game.Any comments or input would be appreciated. My goal is to build the bankroll to $6k and make the jump to 2-5 NL.

#5 mtdesmoines

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Posted 22 February 2010 - 05:17 AM

View PostProvotrout, on Monday, February 22nd, 2010, 6:59 AM, said:

I just started playing again in earnest and here are my stats so far:1-2 & 1-3 NL Casino Games (AC & 1 home game)58 hours$1,072 winnings$18/h win rate$119/session$200 buy-inDuring the course of the games, I've realized that my game has a long way to go in order to maximize profitability. There are a lot of opportunities for the savvy player in live 1-2NL, it's just a matter of developing the skill required to spot them.Anyhow, those are my stats. I play a consistent & disciplined game, throw in occasional bluffs to pay for blinds or take advantage of weak tight players, and bet the moon against the aggressive types. Despite the sample size being small, the win rate has consistently fluctuated between $24/h and $14/h, so I think this sort of performance is reasonably close to accurate long term. Lots of poker to be played, but I figure these are pretty respectable numbers for a 1-2 NL live game.Any comments or input would be appreciated. My goal is to build the bankroll to $6k and make the jump to 2-5 NL.
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#6 KingJames

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Posted 22 February 2010 - 07:32 AM

solid first and only post
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#7 Provotrout

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Posted 22 February 2010 - 10:20 AM

View Postmtdesmoines, on Monday, February 22nd, 2010, 8:17 AM, said:

tpmm
Not familiar with the acronym.. Top Pair Mad Man, perhaps? And thanks for the nod, other poster

#8 govikes

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Posted 22 February 2010 - 10:45 AM

View PostProvotrout, on Monday, February 22nd, 2010, 12:20 PM, said:

Not familiar with the acronym.. Top Pair Mad Man, perhaps? And thanks for the nod, other poster
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#9 Provotrout

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Posted 22 February 2010 - 11:40 AM

View Postgovikes, on Monday, February 22nd, 2010, 1:45 PM, said:

Turn Pro Make Millions, yw
haha, I like it. Lets go with play part time and make thousands.. There's a big difference between beating 1-2 in a month and beating 15-30 or higheryear over year.

#10 Ninja Ace

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Posted 22 February 2010 - 11:47 AM

lmao @ the Jan 2005 bumpament :)Wasn't this before UGIEA?
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#11 Provotrout

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Posted 28 February 2010 - 03:21 PM

View Postmtdesmoines, on Monday, February 22nd, 2010, 8:17 AM, said:

tpmm
just got back from an AC weekend, so here are the updated stats:68 hours$1,830 net profit$26/hr$152/sessioncashed: 9/12 sessionsgames:.05-1.00 NL live cash home game $11/h (4 hrs)1-2NL live casino $27/h (48 hrs)1-3NL live casino $29/h (16 hrs)Bankroll is now sitting at $5,400, but I'm thinking the current earnings rate is worthwhile enough to put off making the jump to 2-5NL until the BR hits $10k (maybe by year's end?). After talking with some 2-5NL players, I don't think its worth the risk to go in w/ less than 20buyins. Lots of variance in the loose 2-5NL games. The hourly earnings potential is a very attractive goal though, so I fully intend to make a run at it. Hopefully the card gods don't interfere!

#12 shynepo3

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Posted 02 March 2010 - 02:54 PM

View PostProvotrout, on Sunday, February 28th, 2010, 6:21 PM, said:

just got back from an AC weekend, so here are the updated stats:68 hours$1,830 net profit$26/hr$152/sessioncashed: 9/12 sessionsgames:.05-1.00 NL live cash home game $11/h (4 hrs)1-2NL live casino $27/h (48 hrs)1-3NL live casino $29/h (16 hrs)Bankroll is now sitting at $5,400, but I'm thinking the current earnings rate is worthwhile enough to put off making the jump to 2-5NL until the BR hits $10k (maybe by year's end?). After talking with some 2-5NL players, I don't think its worth the risk to go in w/ less than 20buyins. Lots of variance in the loose 2-5NL games. The hourly earnings potential is a very attractive goal though, so I fully intend to make a run at it. Hopefully the card gods don't interfere!
Congrats on your stats...very good. I recently started playing live this year, mostly $2-5. Here are my stats (i really wish i could calculate per hand like online players do...i guess i have to sit there one day and mark it down for 1 hr to get an average..)Total hours played: 85.25Total net profit: 5225Total hourly rate: 61.29Games$1/2 - 20 hours played - (-605) - (-30.25/hr)$2/5 - 58.25 hours played - (+5870) - (+100.77/hr)$5/5 - 7 hours played - (-40) - (-5.71/hr)I think I've been running really good...and I know for sure these stats will eventually bottom out. I don't plan on playing higher than $2/5, until I've been winning for a LONG time...over a year at least. $5/5 I'll play occasionally, but the next big step up would be $5/10, and that's insane to me. Do you play online? I'm wondering how your stats are online, and what limits do you play on there...Please let us know how you continue to do...

#13 Merby

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Posted 02 March 2010 - 03:01 PM

I will post my live results when I am home and can look them up. Off the top of my head, my lifetime win rate at 1/2 is ~$15/hr, although that includes the years where I was break-even at best. Currently this year, I think my win rate is ~$60/hr, but I know that is inflated due to short term run-good. A more accurate win rate would be from Jan 2009 - present, although that is the one I don't even vaguely remember right now...As I said, I will post exact numbers when I get home.
QUOTE (Fluffdog87 @ Tuesday, January 27th, 2009, 11:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Dramatic hand gestures on all-ins ftw!


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#14 shynepo3

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Posted 02 March 2010 - 03:05 PM

View PostMerby, on Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010, 6:01 PM, said:

I will post my live results when I am home and can look them up. Off the top of my head, my lifetime win rate at 1/2 is ~$15/hr, although that includes the years where I was break-even at best. Currently this year, I think my win rate is ~$60/hr, but I know that is inflated due to short term run-good. A more accurate win rate would be from Jan 2009 - present, although that is the one I don't even vaguely remember right now...As I said, I will post exact numbers when I get home.
how many hours (live hours, not online) do you think a player needs to play to accurately assess his skill level?

#15 Merby

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Posted 02 March 2010 - 03:46 PM

View Postshynepo3, on Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010, 3:05 PM, said:

how many hours (live hours, not online) do you think a player needs to play to accurately assess his skill level?
LOTS!!!When playing live, you get to see on average 25 - 30 hands per hour (depending on factors such as automatic shuffle machines, average local dealer speed, etc.) Over the long run, I'd expect the average hand per hour rate to be closer to 25 rather than 30 when playing at your average 1/2 NLHE table. Thanks to poker tracker and HEM, we know it is possible to run (significantly) good or bad for 100,000 hand stretches. This translates into 3300 - 4000 hours of live play. Personally, I have played ~1550 hours of live poker (mainly on weekends) since I started taking detailed statistics back in January, 2006. That would roughly translate to only around 40k or 50k hands.The bottom line is that it is good to keep track of long term win rates, but do not stress if they seem to fluctuate wildly, even after having played once or twice a week for a couple of years: you are actually still dealing with a relatively small sample size. I would not let this stress me, but rather just focus on making good decisions at every opportunity.I would say that anything less than a sample size of 1000 hours of live play (~25k hands) would be too small to say anything significant. If you want to guess a true win rate, you would probably need *at least* 4000 hours (~100,000 hands) of live play. Depending on how frequently you play per week, this will take several years. Here's a rough break-down on how long it takes to get a *bare minimum* 1000 hour sample and a more reasonable 4000 hour sample based on your average amount of poker play per week:If you play one 8 hour session per week: .... 1000 hours = ~2.5 years; ..... 4000 hours = 10 years.If you play two 8 hour sessions per week: ... 1000 hours = ~15 months; ... 4000 hours = 5 years.If you play 40 hours per week: ................... 1000 hours = 6 months; ....... 4000 hours = 2 years.As you can see, even if you are a full time live grinder, who *averages* 40 hours per week, it takes at least two years to get anything close to a reasonable sample size. For the average casual player who plays once or twice per week, it will take several years before a reasonable sample size is obtained to determine something approaching a "true" win rate. This brief analysis also underscores why internet players can become so skilled after a seemingly insignificant amount of time. A lot of online grinders can put in over 1 million hands per year, or in essence, crunch 20 years of full time live play into only 1 year online. That's a lot of hands to learn from. And that does not even factor in all the online training sites, poker forums, poker books, and coaching which is available these days and which weren't available 5 or 10 years ago.
QUOTE (Fluffdog87 @ Tuesday, January 27th, 2009, 11:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Dramatic hand gestures on all-ins ftw!


A day in the life of Checkymcfold:
QUOTE (checkymcfold @ Friday, January 9th, 2009, 12:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
My cats are freaked out, I have a headache, and I'm probably going to put on pants for the first time in three days and find somewhere to go that's not here.


QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Tuesday, July 22nd, 2008, 11:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
[x] Signature-worthy.

#16 Provotrout

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Posted 02 March 2010 - 04:15 PM

View Postshynepo3, on Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010, 5:54 PM, said:

Congrats on your stats...very good. I recently started playing live this year, mostly $2-5. Here are my stats (i really wish i could calculate per hand like online players do...i guess i have to sit there one day and mark it down for 1 hr to get an average..)Total hours played: 85.25Total net profit: 5225Total hourly rate: 61.29Games$1/2 - 20 hours played - (-605) - (-30.25/hr)$2/5 - 58.25 hours played - (+5870) - (+100.77/hr)$5/5 - 7 hours played - (-40) - (-5.71/hr)I think I've been running really good...and I know for sure these stats will eventually bottom out. I don't plan on playing higher than $2/5, until I've been winning for a LONG time...over a year at least. $5/5 I'll play occasionally, but the next big step up would be $5/10, and that's insane to me. Do you play online? I'm wondering how your stats are online, and what limits do you play on there...Please let us know how you continue to do...
Thanks, that's a nice 2-5NL run you're on. Getting above $30 or $40/hr is my goal, and it's pretty obvious that road runs through live 2-5NL. Regarding online, I used to play .25-.50 NLHE and Omaha 8, though I probably played less than 6k hands. This was 3-4 years ago and I decided that snowboarding and golfing on weekends and hanging out with friends were better ways to spend time than playing low stakes poker online. Recently I signed up on Pokerstars, so if going to AC enough to keep progressing becomes difficult, I'll probably resume play online and devote some time to learning the proper strategy.Bottom line is that I really enjoy the environment of a live cash game. There's more information available, free cocktail service (non-alcoholic while playing of course), and it's an effective antidote for the typical 9-5 grind. At this point I'm treating it as an experiment to see how far it goes. Going to AC this weekend for a Friday - Sunday trip, will follow up after.

#17 Merby

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Posted 02 March 2010 - 04:35 PM

I don't think I stressed my main point enough in the previous post, so here it is: (1) It will take FAR too long to get a statistically significant sample size (2) Even with that said, it is impossible to obtain a sample size which will give you a "true" win rate. (3) Instead of stressing over this point, just focus on making the correct decision at every moment while you are playing. (4) Invest as much off time as you can away from the felt to develop yourself as a player. Finally and possibly most importantly: (5) Set realistic goals for your poker playing self: .....(i) Are you a planning on playing as a professional poker player (Full-time oker player with poker as your primary/sole income)? .....(ii) Are you planning on supplementing your income as a part-time poker player (a serious amateur, but who obtains their primary income elsewhere)?.....(iii) Are you playing poker primarily for entertainment purposes?If you're playing solely for entertainment purposes, then set a budget of how much you are willing to "spend" for your entertainment per month. In this case, it is in no way necessary to be a winning player, but it is still important to never risk money which you are not willing to lose. Treat it like an entertainment expense (budget money for poker just like you would to go to the bars or to go rent movies or for an annual ski pass, etc.) Your primary focus should be on having fun while there, but nevertheless, it is a good idea to put some time and effort into improving your game a bit. The better you play, the longer your budgeted poker money will last (on average) and the cheaper it will be to play poker per month.If you are playing professionally or semi-professionally, then you should already know that you are a winning player. You need to have a poker bankroll and STICK within your bankroll. I won't spend too much time on this point because there are a TON of threads in FCP discussing poker bankrolls, requirements for going pro, etc. I will stress however, that if you are a professional poker player, then your bankroll does NOT include your money saved up (short term) to cover living expenses. If your PRIMARY goal from poker is to generate income (whether it is supplementary income or primary income) then you *MUST* treat poker like a job. I'm not saying you can't have fun, but that you have to be responsible while playing poker. Playing drunk, buying into huge tournaments with 10% of your bankroll, playing in pit games, playing because you're bored, etc. are bad habits which you must curb or eliminate.I cannot give much advice to you if you are a professional poker player because you would have more experience than I have. I am only a serious amateur: my primary income is from a non-poker source.
QUOTE (Fluffdog87 @ Tuesday, January 27th, 2009, 11:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Dramatic hand gestures on all-ins ftw!


A day in the life of Checkymcfold:
QUOTE (checkymcfold @ Friday, January 9th, 2009, 12:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
My cats are freaked out, I have a headache, and I'm probably going to put on pants for the first time in three days and find somewhere to go that's not here.


QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Tuesday, July 22nd, 2008, 11:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
[x] Signature-worthy.

#18 Provotrout

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Posted 02 March 2010 - 05:29 PM

Attached File  First_Two_Months.jpg   30.1K   18 downloads

View PostMerby, on Tuesday, March 2nd, 2010, 7:35 PM, said:

I don't think I stressed my main point enough in the previous post, so here it is: (1) It will take FAR too long to get a statistically significant sample size (2) Even with that said, it is impossible to obtain a sample size which will give you a "true" win rate. (3) Instead of stressing over this point, just focus on making the correct decision at every moment while you are playing. (4) Invest as much off time as you can away from the felt to develop yourself as a player. Finally and possibly most importantly: (5) Set realistic goals for your poker playing self: .....(i) Are you a planning on playing as a professional poker player (Full-time oker player with poker as your primary/sole income)? .....(ii) Are you planning on supplementing your income as a part-time poker player (a serious amateur, but who obtains their primary income elsewhere)?.....(iii) Are you playing poker primarily for entertainment purposes?If you're playing solely for entertainment purposes, then set a budget of how much you are willing to "spend" for your entertainment per month. In this case, it is in no way necessary to be a winning player, but it is still important to never risk money which you are not willing to lose. Treat it like an entertainment expense (budget money for poker just like you would to go to the bars or to go rent movies or for an annual ski pass, etc.) Your primary focus should be on having fun while there, but nevertheless, it is a good idea to put some time and effort into improving your game a bit. The better you play, the longer your budgeted poker money will last (on average) and the cheaper it will be to play poker per month.If you are playing professionally or semi-professionally, then you should already know that you are a winning player. You need to have a poker bankroll and STICK within your bankroll. I won't spend too much time on this point because there are a TON of threads in FCP discussing poker bankrolls, requirements for going pro, etc. I will stress however, that if you are a professional poker player, then your bankroll does NOT include your money saved up (short term) to cover living expenses. If your PRIMARY goal from poker is to generate income (whether it is supplementary income or primary income) then you *MUST* treat poker like a job. I'm not saying you can't have fun, but that you have to be responsible while playing poker. Playing drunk, buying into huge tournaments with 10% of your bankroll, playing in pit games, playing because you're bored, etc. are bad habits which you must curb or eliminate.I cannot give much advice to you if you are a professional poker player because you would have more experience than I have. I am only a serious amateur: my primary income is from a non-poker source.
I'm no pro, no doubt about that. Just a long time recreational player (10yrs) that has consistently been identified by peers as the best or second best in the games I've played in (in college: low stakes ring game with 15 regulars, after college: low stakes tournaments with 15 regulars). In previous visits to casinos I've lost small sums playing craps, blackjack, and slots for entertainment value. I didn't play casino poker much before this year because I didn't feel prepared for casino action (ie. variance). It was only after a friend reported how easy they were to beat that I set aside $600 as an experimental BR for $1-2NL. Two months later, that $600 has produced $1,800 in profits and I've set aside another $3,000 cash so that I can be properly bankrolled in the game and not play with scared money. If the $1,800 in gains and $600 buyin evaporate, I'll probably pull the plug and put the $3,000 back to work somewhere else-but I estimate the odds of that happening as quite low. Attached File  First_Two_Months.jpg   30.1K   18 downloadsThe players in 1-2 consistently play without to pot odds, implied odds and logical decision-making. Being the analytical sort, I know these errant decisions will consistently put loose money in pots. From what I've seen and read, being a winning player at low stakes is more an exercise in discipline than skill. Being 28 and just starting to gain traction with a career, I'm interested in finding niches to generate cash flow & solid returns. I'm studying finance right now for a second bachelors and simply don't have a lot of faith in traditional wealth creation strategies (mutual fund dominated 401ks and real estate). Economically, there are significant demographic and fiscal hurdles that will limit the upside of traditional strategies during the decades my generation will rely on most for investment returns. Poker is one of those niches that offers a good upside for those capable, disciplined enough, and willing to put risk capital to work in a sound manner. Current goal: make $5-10K in 2010 playing poker on weekends. Study the game and read strategy/theory material. Move to 2-5NL when the bankroll hits 5 figures and try to increase returns. Stay inside the bankroll. Do this while still maintaining a 3.7gpa in school.

#19 JtothePeeps

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Posted 02 March 2010 - 08:14 PM

Hey guys, first post. I was gonna make a similar topic but...-I turned 21 in Oct. and have been playing off and on online with a little profit but not much. But I've played a lot of hands and have been stalking forums like these for a long time so I decided to go to a casino. One about an hour from my house. (Silverstar in Philadelphia MS, for anyone who has been there.) A friend gives me 100 (I only had 45 to my name :club: poor college student) and I put 20 of my own in and sat down at a 1/3 table. Anyway, started playing at 11:00, left about 1:15 with $522 (402 profit). Went back Fridayy, same buy-in (Only my own money this time...) and walked out with $320 profit. Went back Saturday, $344 profit. Went tonight, and lost $120. So for a total of 9 hours roughly, I've profited $946.-So I have a few questions. I choose to only take the initial $120 buy-in with me. Does anyone else do that? Once I build my bankroll a litle higher I fully intend on taking atleast one more buy-in, but for now I don't feel like it's necessary. Also, when should I move up blinds, assuming my success continues?-PS: TC, I don't mean to hijack your topic.

#20 babylondonks

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Posted 02 March 2010 - 08:58 PM

Merby is really smart




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