Calculating Bluff-equity And Breakeven Points

[DinkDonk 1]

I don't know about you, but that makes me want to bluff more.

And call more.

[shpaget 0]

And call more.

That's where it gets fun.If you know he "only" has to fold 1 in 16 times, you are gonna bluff more.If he knows that you only have to bluff 15% of the time for his call to be correct, and if he knows the more outs you have the lower that numbers go, the more likely he is to call.I am an undeniable calling station at showdown for these reasons.If hero and villain are two people who read this thread, villain doesn't fold 6.5% of the time, making the turn bet -ev.But hero would know that, so he wouldn't bet.So, when he bets, he has a strong hand.And villain knows that, so he will fold more than 6.5% of the time.

[DinkDonk 1]

That's where it gets fun.If you know he "only" has to fold 1 in 16 times, you are gonna bluff more.If he knows that you only have to bluff 15% of the time for his call to be correct, and if he knows the more outs you have the lower that numbers go, the more likely he is to call.I am an undeniable calling station at showdown for these reasons.If hero and villain are two people who read this thread, villain doesn't fold 6.5% of the time, making the turn bet -ev.But hero would know that, so he wouldn't bet.So, when he bets, he has a strong hand.And villain knows that, so he will fold more than 6.5% of the time.

Yep. Pretty close to my thoughts. It's something I've talked about before. When playing good players, you have to be very bluffy and very showdown bound. It leads to super high variance wars with small to non-existent edges. Table selection FTW.Anyway, good post and good thought process.

[JubilantLankyLad 1,957]

That's where it gets fun.If you know he "only" has to fold 1 in 16 times, you are gonna bluff more.If he knows that you only have to bluff 15% of the time for his call to be correct, and if he knows the more outs you have the lower that numbers go, the more likely he is to call.I am an undeniable calling station at showdown for these reasons.If hero and villain are two people who read this thread, villain doesn't fold 6.5% of the time, making the turn bet -ev.But hero would know that, so he wouldn't bet.So, when he bets, he has a strong hand.And villain knows that, so he will fold more than 6.5% of the time.

yeah, well, i spent the last few years building up an immunity to iocane powder.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

yeah, well, i spent the last few years building up an immunity to iocane powder.

Well I know something you do not.

[JubilantLankyLad 1,957]

Well I know something you do not.

Anybody want a peanut?

[El Guapo 8]

Anybody want a peanut?

To the pain.

[JubilantLankyLad 1,957]

To the pain.

There's a shortage of perfect breasts in this world; it would be a shame to ruin yours.

[El Guapo 8]

There's a shortage of perfect breasts in this world; it would be a shame to ruin yours.

:blushing:Oh, wait, we're still doing the Princess Bride thing, huh?

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

:blushing:Oh, wait, we're still doing the Princess Bride thing, huh?

You are the brute squad.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

And call more.

It's possible, Pig, I might be bluffing.

[checkymcfold 0]

my half-joking, half-real response:i've capped the turn plenty of times with a hell of a lot less than 18 outs.

[Tactical Bear 3]

my half-joking, half-real response:i've capped the turn plenty of times with a hell of a lot less than 18 outs.

Yeah, I remember once thinking to myself: "Okay, putting a 4th bet in here heads up out of position has to improve my fold-equity if I check/raise bluff the river, right? Yeah. 4-bets."I... was probably incorrect, but it was fun, and I probably just got there anyway.

[David_Nicoson 1]

What's the average pot-size on the turn for the games you are playing? 5.5 big bets would be bigger than normal, right? I'm just a NL donk.

[Dirtydutch 8]

This is a good thread. It was a good thread last time you posted it, Wang. It always surprises me when an OTOG like you or McGee makes an interesting strat post.

[Tactical Bear 3]

This is a good thread. It was a good thread last time you posted it, Wang. It always surprises me when an OTOG like you or McGee makes an interesting strat post.

Yeah, it's weird, but most of the people that post in OT were initially drawn to FCP by the poker-content. I cut my teeth giving bad advice in the LHE forum, and still pop in to do that from time-to-time.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

This is a good thread. It was a good thread last time you posted it, Wang. It always surprises me when an OTOG like you or McGee makes an interesting strat post.

oh, so Sally posts in the LHE challenge thread for a month and has become a hardcore strat slut who's forgotten her OTOG roots, has she? get stuffed, trollop

[Dirtydutch 8]

oh, so Sally posts in the LHE challenge thread for a month and has become a hardcore strat slut who's forgotten her OTOG roots, has she? get stuffed, trollop

In the last week I've uploaded shemale porn, endorsed movies about dragons and posted pretty much nothing strat-related at all. So yes, I'm turning into a real elitist.

[BigDMcGee 3,352]

In the last week I've uploaded shemale porn, endorsed movies about dragons and posted pretty much nothing strat-related at all. So yes, I'm turning into a real elitist.

speaking of, I just watched that Christian Bale movie about dragons on TV, called Reign of Fire..... talk about two great tastes that taste great together!

[antistuff 0]

Yeah, it's weird, but most of the people that post in OT were initially drawn to FCP by the poker-content. I cut my teeth giving bad advice in the LHE forum, and still pop in to do that from time-to-time.

you should pop in here more. and come visit the lhe challenge thread in general.