Aq Vs. Nit. Line Check?

[AimHigher 0]

Villain was 6/6 over a relatively small sample, like 30 hands. He was fairly unaggressive and I hadn't seen him donk bet before.PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comButton ($24.65)SB ($25)BB ($25.55)UTG ($2.25)Hero (MP) ($30.45)Preflop: Hero is MP with A, Q1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, BB calls $0.75Flop: ($2.10) 9, A, 3(2 players)BB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50Turn: ($5.10) 10(2 players)BB checks, Hero checksRiver: ($5.10) 7(2 players)BB bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50Total pot: $12.10 | Rake: $0.55On the turn my thinking was: I can't beat AK, I can't beat AT, A9, 99 or TT. All of those hands are potential candidates for a donk. If he has an ace, it's unlikely he has a worse kicker than a 9 and none of the hands that beat me are folding. We could potentially get value from AJ, but that's about the only hand we can get value from.Thoughts?

[Giggidy 0]

IPITS - i'd be more concerned of 33 than TT tbh, but i think the line is fine

[Citizen Erased 0]

Generally when a nit bets the flop it's because they're too weak to check/raise, and don't want to be check/calling.When he checks the turn, though, I just get the feeling he's gotten stronger, and wants to feign weakness. That said, he could just be weak - a simple bet here would look strong and he'll probably fold anything you definitely do beat. Of course, that's not really what we want (to be folding out worse), so I guess we can check here. If we bet here, though, there's a decent chance he'll check to us on the river, which would indicate his weakness in wanting to get to showdown. If he bets the river after calling the turn, we can probably safely fold under the assumption our hand is no good.Hope that's not convoluted. I'm somewhat hungover at the moment, so bear with me : )As played, I think we have to call the river, but I expect you to lose to AT.

[SGFULTON83 0]

Looks pretty standard, not sure what he's leading with on the river after the c/c on the turn but I think calling is fine.

[trystero 0]

Can't ever fold, nH

[mtdesmoines 2]

Villain was 6/6 over a relatively small sample, like 30 hands. He was fairly unaggressive and I hadn't seen him donk bet before. On the turn my thinking was: I can't beat AK, I can't beat AT, A9, 99 or TT. All of those hands are potential candidates for a donk. If he has an ace, it's unlikely he has a worse kicker than a 9 and none of the hands that beat me are folding. We could potentially get value from AJ, but that's about the only hand we can get value from.Thoughts?

Our first problem is that 30 hands is no sample at all. Second, I think AK, TT, even 99 -- all those hands have to reraise from the BB in 6 max, and I don't know that A9 can call a 4xBB PF raise. I think we're ahead on the flop. AT sooted is one of the hands I worry about, but if the villain is truly a donk bettor, he's betting the turn when he hits. So I don't think this hand is as bleak as it appears on the turn and I might be betting for value. The river is an autocall -- some hands I would not be overly surprised to see: AJ AT sooted, set of 3s, AQ, a "sooted wheel ace" (A2 A3 ETC. diamonds) and assorted crap aces and PPs.

[Sheiky 0]

I think the way you played it far outweighs other ways of playing it.

[simo_8ball 1]

I would usually bet the turn here, but I don't hate your line.

[TrueAce13 18]

I think we have to raise the flop here. I would play it the same the rest of the way though

[Giggidy 0]

I think we have to raise the flop here.

Why?Don't play big pots with single pair hands - you're folding out anything you beat and getting called or raised with betteredit - i had a quick read of your top blog post - i'd post the 66 hand in strat myself as I think that was pretty butchered (not sayin it to be an arse, but i think you need to alter how you think/approach certain lines)

[mtdesmoines 2]

Why?Don't play big pots with single pair hands - you're folding out anything you beat and getting called or raised with betteredit - i had a quick read of your top blog post - i'd post the 66 hand in strat myself as I think that was pretty butchered (not sayin it to be an arse, but i think you need to alter how you think/approach certain lines)

Let's not go all crazy here ... there's a time and place for everything.

[Giggidy 0]

Let's not go all crazy here ... there's a time and place for everything.

I know, but i have no idea what you're trying to say here. You think raising is an ok play?

[AimHigher 0]

I would usually bet the turn here, but I don't hate your line.

The turn was my main concern as typically I would bet there. I may have given his stats too much weight considering the sample.

[mtdesmoines 2]

Don't play big pots with single pair hands

Let's not go all crazy here ... there's a time and place for everything.

I know, but i have no idea what you're trying to say here. You think raising is an ok play?

I was thinking about the bolded part.

[Giggidy 0]

I was thinking about the bolded part.

I still don't see what yer saying.... raising flop makes it a big pot with a single pair hand, that's what my comment is in relation to

[trystero 0]

He's not talking about this hand; he's talking in general about your claim that you shouldn't play big pots with one pair.

[AimHigher 0]

I still don't see what yer saying.... raising flop makes it a big pot with a single pair hand, that's what my comment is in relation to

Which in the context of this hand against this opponent is fine. But if a megalodonk leads into me in this exact same situation I'd be happy to play a 200 BB pot with him. Especially if he's prone to getting sticky with second pair.

[Giggidy 0]

Which in the context of this hand against this opponent is fine. But if a megalodonk leads into me in this exact same situation I'd be happy to play a 200 BB pot with him. Especially if he's prone to getting sticky with second pair.

Obv it's a general statement, but yes in this situation against what is assumed to be a reg and possibly a nitty one at that i wouldn't be playing a large pot with a single pair hand - I never said it applied to fish/spewtards

[AimHigher 0]

Obv it's a general statement, but yes in this situation against what is assumed to be a reg and possibly a nitty one at that i wouldn't be playing a large pot with a single pair hand - I never said it applied to fish/spewtards

Yeah, agreed. I'm quite happy to flat here, I don't think I'm losing much value and it enables him to keep firing with worse hands. I think the turn is possibly where I missed some value but I wasn't sure.

[mtdesmoines 2]

Our first problem is that 30 hands is no sample at all. Second, I think AK, TT, even 99 -- all those hands have to reraise from the BB in 6 max, and I don't know that A9 can call a 4xBB PF raise. I think we're ahead on the flop. AT sooted is one of the hands I worry about, but if the villain is truly a donk bettor, he's betting the turn when he hits. So I don't think this hand is as bleak as it appears on the turn and I might be betting for value. The river is an autocall -- some hands I would not be overly surprised to see: AJ AT sooted, set of 3s, AQ, a "sooted wheel ace" (A2 A3 ETC. diamonds) and assorted crap aces and PPs.

Yeah, agreed. I'm quite happy to flat here, I don't think I'm losing much value and it enables him to keep firing with worse hands. I think the turn is possibly where I missed some value but I wasn't sure.

FWIW, I agree.

[AimHigher 0]

FWIW, I agree.

Sorry dude, I do read every post but I can't respond to them all. As it turned out, he rivered a set of sevens (which is part of the range you outlined) and I felt really dumb, lol.

[Sheiky 0]

I think checking is probably better because you're only going to value bet one street against this player I think, and while you can't get value of a draw on the river, I think it's more +EV to check the turn to induce a bluff or to induce a call from 88 or something on the river.If you have a good read on the player and know he'll never check the river with a better hand, I would be more inclined to bet the turn and river.

[AimHigher 0]

I think checking is probably better because you're only going to value bet one street against this player I think, and while you can't get value of a draw on the river, I think it's more +EV to check the turn to induce a bluff or to induce a call from 88 or something on the river.If you have a good read on the player and know he'll never check the river with a better hand, I would be more inclined to bet the turn and river.

I think there's hardly going to be any draws in his range. We have the Ad and I don't think he's going to show up with a straight draw very often. His donk really screwed the dynamics of the hand though and made the rest of it difficult for me to play. Once I check behind I'm always calling the river/always betting it when checked to. One thing I'm confused about is how much of his range is actually going to check-call me on the turn vs. call me if I check back the river. He was probably betting to "see where he was at" on the flop so if I bet the turn he is going to fold his sevens and similiar hands a lot.

[CobaltBlue 662]

For balance purposes (since I love raising donkbets with air), I sometimes raise this flop. If we do that and get re-raised, we can safely fold. If we get called, we can check the turn for pot control. If we call the flop and he checks the turn, I like checking the turn back.Also, the sample size is probably too small, though I suppose it is 6 orbits worth.