Resteal?

[AimHigher 0]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00+$0.20 Tournament, 4000/8000 Blinds 1000 Ante (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comSB (t106971)BB (t43959)UTG (t138068)UTG+1 (t109203)MP1 (t139362)MP2 (t340927)CO (t106479)Hero (Button) (t104199)Hero's M: 5.21Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 102 folds, MP1 raises to t32000, 2 folds, Hero raises to t103199 (All-In)Bubble has long burst. We're at around sort of 120 players left and widdling down. Villain's stats were like 34/28. He seemed pretty aggro preflop but I had also seen him raise/fold to a 3-bet shove just over an orbit ago to someone with a similar stack size to me. There's 50k in the pot to me. What do we think?

[sennin 0]

I think it's a fold. Firstly its a 4x raise giving you no fold equity, if it was 3x id probably shove, if it was 2.5x id definitely shove. Secondly, he's 4xing it and putting in a huge chunk of his stack here, I think he probably has a pretty legitimate hand and AT isnt going to fare very well esp with you getting called 100% of the time.Now if he was raising on the CO or button and we were behind him I think his range would then be wide enough that AT would be good even without fold equity.

[Cappy37 0]

Now if he was raising on the CO or button and we were behind him I think his range would then be wide enough that AT would be good even without fold equity.

Agree 100%.. restealing MP1 without fold equity isn't for the faint of heart.

[HighwayStar 8]

v.close fold.

[AimHigher 0]

I think it's a fold. Firstly its a 4x raise giving you no fold equity, if it was 3x id probably shove, if it was 2.5x id definitely shove. Secondly, he's 4xing it and putting in a huge chunk of his stack here, I think he probably has a pretty legitimate hand and AT isnt going to fare very well esp with you getting called 100% of the time.Now if he was raising on the CO or button and we were behind him I think his range would then be wide enough that AT would be good even without fold equity.

What do you think about if he's in the Hijack? I kinda think that this is the tweener spot.My thought processes were that my hand was probably flipping against his range (He was easily the loosest player at the table in terms of open raising), there was dead money in the pot and I'd just seen him open raise/fold about five hands ago, even though with this stack he shouldn't be.Also what if our hand is AJ?

[sennin 0]

What do you think about if he's in the Hijack? I kinda think that this is the tweener spot.My thought processes were that my hand was probably flipping against his range (He was easily the loosest player at the table in terms of open raising), there was dead money in the pot and I'd just seen him open raise/fold about five hands ago, even though with this stack he shouldn't be.Also what if our hand is AJ?

I probably shove if he's on the hijack too.With AJ its close but if hes as loose as you say then shoving is probably the right play

[Cappy37 0]

What do you think about if he's in the Hijack? I kinda think that this is the tweener spot.My thought processes were that my hand was probably flipping against his range (He was easily the loosest player at the table in terms of open raising), there was dead money in the pot and I'd just seen him open raise/fold about five hands ago, even though with this stack he shouldn't be.Also what if our hand is AJ?

Thanks for the additioinal info.AJ gives us another flip with TT, but doesn't solve a ton of problems.3 key ingredients to ponder:1. ) The fact that villain has just raise/folded within an orbit makes it a bit more likely he's got a hand he'll go to war with.2. ) The big blind is down to 5x Big Blind range. Doesn't mean MP1 isn't trying to pick on the short stack, he's just chosen a spot where the player in the big blind is desperate and much more likely to call, lending credence once again to MP1 having a hand with showdown value.3. ) We don't have any legit fold equity. MP1 has tossed 1/4 of his stack into the pot for his open raise. He may have raised folded an orbit ago, but that was less than 20% of his stack at that time.AT (or even AJ) has some showdown value, but not a lot. Any play we make here hinges upon the likelihood of MP1 laying down PF, The hands we'd want him to call us with are precisely the hands he'd potentially lay down PF. A lot of our flip hands (middle pairs) he might even open shove in this spot, reducing the number of "flip" hands he'd table after calling our shove.The other move we can make is the Stop and Go, where we flat and shove any flop. Unfortunately, we have the button, so Stop and Go isn't an option (we won't act first).I mean, if the table is really loose and blinds are tough to steal, you may want to gamble and try and get into a coinflip, but losing First In Vig with a slightlybetterthanmarginal hand... It's just a very close fold, really.

[HighwayStar 8]

I'm bored so I'll run the math on it with a very loose player.edit - This is effectively a break even shove (about + 4/5ths of an ante)If he's opening even slightly tighter - which he really should be - it's a massively - ev. This was sssuming he's opening22+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,ATo+,KJo+and calling with66+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+,KQoand the remaining players come along with77+,AJs+,AJo+AJ is about a +1.3 BB resteal vs the same ranges - so an insta shove.For the reasons cappy said, I don't think we really have any fold equity at all. I'd guess he's raising tighter and calling lighter than the above ranges.If for example he's raising and calling with22+,A9s+,KQs,ATo+,KQoYou need 47.19% equity vs that range for this to be a + EV resteal - which is about 66+ and AQ+I'd guess the actuality is somewhere between the 2, so 55+ and AJ+ look good for restealing.

[AimHigher 0]

Thanks for the insight guys. I'm a bit reluctant to reveal the result, but he did actually fold. I suspect that if it wasn't for the fact it was a $2.20, he probably wouldn't have. I think generally speaking most people will look at their pot odds and just decide they have to call, so I'm not exactly sure why villain didn't. I think there are a lot of things I should have taken into consideration before deciding whether to shove or not, but I was just fortunate with the outcome.

[Cappy37 0]

Well, it's not an exact science, and you will need to "gamble" in spots. That's also really bad that's he's raise/folding so short in relation to the blinds, but that's why you wanna play $2.20 turbos: people can be really bad. lol.Wow, you really wouldn't expect him to fold anything there.

[AimHigher 0]

Well, it's not an exact science, and you will need to "gamble" in spots. That's also really bad that's he's raise/folding so short in relation to the blinds, but that's why you wanna play $2.20 turbos: people can be really bad. lol.Wow, you really wouldn't expect him to fold anything there.

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't surprised when he folded, lol.

[MovingIn 0]

Whether or not I'd overshove here depends on how often this villain was opening pots. You mentioned he was a bit aggro. Was he open raising 3-4 times an orbit? Was he opening from all positions, rather than the stealing seats? The more often he raised pre and the more variety of positions from which he did so, the wider his range and the more likely I'd overshove into him with AT.