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Kq In Pushbot Mode


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#41 SlackerInc

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Posted 24 October 2008 - 07:57 PM

View PostMercury69, on Friday, October 24th, 2008, 12:29 PM, said:

Part of the issue here is that the two left to act have massive stacks and probably aren't thinking about pot odds. If you shove, the pot is about 7200, giving the raiser almost 2 to 1 to call you, which he likley will with almost any A. If any of the big stacks flat calls your shove, it's invitational as the odds will be much, much better for even weaker hands to call. If a big stack isolates, you still have to fade an A (likely) or hit against a PP (even 22 will call you down, I think).
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#42 copernicus

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Posted 25 October 2008 - 07:46 PM

slacker nailed this imo, KQ is a terrible shoving hand after a standard raise. MP has a lot of players, including the big stack, behind him, and he has to be a little gunshy commiting that many chips when hero has come over the top on him so many times. I think hes got a real hand and at best youre flipping from behind, sometimes dominated.
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#43 wakiki

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Posted 25 October 2008 - 11:16 PM

I did a soul read on the villain based on the action in your first post and I think he has AQ, so I say fold it.
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#44 TrueAce13

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Posted 26 October 2008 - 01:20 AM

View Postcopernicus, on Saturday, October 25th, 2008, 8:46 PM, said:

slacker nailed this imo, KQ is a terrible shoving hand after a standard raise. MP has a lot of players, including the big stack, behind him, and he has to be a little gunshy commiting that many chips when hero has come over the top on him so many times. I think hes got a real hand and at best youre flipping from behind, sometimes dominated.
Why does villain have to have a real and this time?
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#45 SGFULTON83

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Posted 26 October 2008 - 05:45 AM

If we wait longer, we are just going to be blinded down more waiting for a "better spot". Then when we double up it will only be back to the amount we had when this hand started.

#46 MovingIn

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Posted 26 October 2008 - 03:01 PM

View Postcopernicus, on Saturday, October 25th, 2008, 8:46 PM, said:

KQ is a terrible shoving hand after a standard raise. MP has a lot of players, including the big stack, behind him, and he has to be a little gunshy commiting that many chips when hero has come over the top on him so many times. I think hes got a real hand and at best youre flipping from behind, sometimes dominated.
MP's also in the hijack with a comfortable stack with small stacks behind him, and many in his situation think he can buy the button from them often enough to justify opening here. He can easily make this move with ATC. If either short stacked blind goes over the top, he can just dump it pre without hurting himself much. Ditto if the bigger stacks in the blinds fire back. So while he did happen to have AQ here, you can't assume he'll only open with those sorts of hands here.If you really think he's nitty and won't open here with a big hand, keep in mind the OP's read:

Quote

Villain had been playing a solid game, though caught him stealing a few times to pick up the blinds and antes.
Ultimately, you also have to ask, with a stack this short... what are you waiting for? How long have you been waiting already? Waiting for Godot is a great way to get blinded off.

#47 SlackerInc

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Posted 26 October 2008 - 08:35 PM

View PostSGFULTON83, on Sunday, October 26th, 2008, 8:45 AM, said:

If we wait longer, we are just going to be blinded down more waiting for a "better spot". Then when we double up it will only be back to the amount we had when this hand started.
Being back to the same amount later in the tourney when we've made it past the bubble and up the money ladder sounds a lot better to me than being knocked right out of the tourney before the bubble. It's not like once you get back up to this amount you have to stop playing!Alan

#48 HighwayStar

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Posted 26 October 2008 - 08:48 PM

I guess it depends on your MTT philosophy and we'll have to agree to disagree.I understand certain arguments for folding but the bubble related ones I completely disagree with.
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#49 SlackerInc

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Posted 26 October 2008 - 08:48 PM

View PostMovingIn, on Sunday, October 26th, 2008, 6:01 PM, said:

If you really think he's nitty and won't open here with a big hand, keep in mind the OP's read:"Villain had been playing a solid game, though caught him stealing a few times to pick up the blinds and antes."Ultimately, you also have to ask, with a stack this short... what are you waiting for? How long have you been waiting already? Waiting for Godot is a great way to get blinded off.
I asked in my very first post in this thread whether he had been stealing blinds and antes from MP or mainly from LP, and whether he had tried to steal when the blinds had him way outchipped. Not sure I ever got the answer to those questions, but they make a big difference.I have said already that I don't just wait around (my Tournament Indicator usually shows me to raise preflop more than anyone at the table). But I'd rather shove 27o on the button when everyone's folded to me, or shove T9s UTG, than shove KQo after a MP raise from a "solid" player. For that matter, I'd shove a lot of hands (including some worse than KQo) in response to a raise from a player who had shown himself to be very LAGgy. It's about multiple factors, only one of which is the cards we hold. I don't see the confluence of factors here as being very favourable.Alan

#50 SlackerInc

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Posted 26 October 2008 - 08:50 PM

View PostHighwayStar, on Sunday, October 26th, 2008, 11:48 PM, said:

I guess it depends on your MTT philosophy and we'll have to agree to disagree.I understand certain arguments for folding but the bubble related ones I completely disagree with.
If you make not even the slightest adjustment in your strategy when you are on the bubble, you should play cash games or winner take all tourneys, because it's logically fallacious to make no adjustment.Alan

#51 HighwayStar

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Posted 26 October 2008 - 08:53 PM

Yea, my adjustment is moving in more than before.
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#52 sennin

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Posted 26 October 2008 - 09:06 PM

View PostHighwayStar, on Sunday, October 26th, 2008, 10:53 PM, said:

Yea, my adjustment is moving in more than before.
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#53 HighwayStar

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Posted 26 October 2008 - 09:18 PM

ok that's not quite trueOn the bubble in 180 mans I get very nitty with a short stack, < 8 BBs, almost playing to min cash since I know they add up.However, when I have the semblance of fold equity I'm shoving my stack in whereever I feel I'm pushing an edge..looking to double up if possible, take down decent % additions to my stack otherwise. I really don't mind taking a race to get to 30-40 BBs.I did some analysis of results and I found in 4.40s I make $7.71 / tournament - over quite a large sample (although it should be higher $ imo)$0.68 of that comes from min cashing - which more often than not (I'd guess 60%+) is where I go into the money very short stacked and get it in behind and lose. The times I go into the money higher, after having say doubled to 25-30 BBs like in this spot or having just had a big stack all through, I'm often pushing towards the top 6 - where I make $6.60 of that $7.70, and if I win a race/run good I push towards to the top 3 where I make $5.45 of it (about 75% of the tournament $)I also get a large number of 19th-30th places. Note this is purely for 180 mans, for MTTs I think you should be shoving a lot more with the short stack since min cashing in MTTs is completely pointless.
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#54 SlackerInc

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Posted 26 October 2008 - 10:18 PM

View PostHighwayStar, on Monday, October 27th, 2008, 12:18 AM, said:

I did some analysis of results and I found in 4.40s I make $7.71 / tournament - over quite a large sample (although it should be higher $ imo)
That's impressive--I assume this is on PokerStars? What's your player ID? I don't have my results precisely tabulated like you do, but judging from SharkScope (I'm SlackerInc1 at PokerStars), I'm making about $4 per 180. I tend though to have a lot of top two finishes (with more wins than second place, I'm fairly sure) and a fair number of 19-30 finishes myself; so I'd guess your better overall results might have more to do with superiour play when the bubble is further away. Can't prove that though.Alan

#55 HighwayStar

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Posted 26 October 2008 - 10:29 PM

May be slightly misunderstood, I make $3.31/ tournament, $7.71 overall.I 15-20 table til I'm deep in a few which is quite a decent amount /session. Usually 30-40 /session at peak timeI think I'm capable of better since my HU conversion is currently 3/18 due to sucking at HU/playing bad. I douobt much more than $5.50 profit/ tournament is doable multitabling though.
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#56 MovingIn

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Posted 27 October 2008 - 06:22 PM

View PostSlackerInc, on Sunday, October 26th, 2008, 9:48 PM, said:

I asked in my very first post in this thread whether he had been stealing blinds and antes from MP or mainly from LP, and whether he had tried to steal when the blinds had him way outchipped. Not sure I ever got the answer to those questions, but they make a big difference.
In this particular instance, his raise is from a prime stealing seat, the hijack. You can't think of the hijack seat as MP. If a villain's going to steal, this would be a seat to do it from, probably even moreso than the CO or Button.If this had been a raise from a true MP seat or even EP, I give it far more credit for representing a strong hand. It appears the gap in our perspectives is that you don't think a raise from the hijack is anything other than a premium hand. So be it.

#57 SlackerInc

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Posted 27 October 2008 - 08:50 PM

View PostHighwayStar, on Monday, October 27th, 2008, 1:29 AM, said:

May be slightly misunderstood, I make $3.31/ tournament, $7.71 overall.
Ah okay, so about the same as my profit.-Alan

#58 SlackerInc

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Posted 27 October 2008 - 09:07 PM

View PostMovingIn, on Monday, October 27th, 2008, 9:22 PM, said:

It appears the gap in our perspectives is that you don't think a raise from the hijack is anything other than a premium hand. So be it.
Nice straw man there. I never said such a thing, and wanted more info about his past behaviour. But I think his range only includes a few hands that we are clearly ahead of, and he's going to call when we shove most of the time. As I said, KQo is not far ahead of a total bluff!

#59 MovingIn

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Posted 28 October 2008 - 05:46 PM

People steal from the hijack seat, Alan. But you seriously don't think an open raise from the hijack seat from a deep stack, late in a tournament against short stacks, is a steal attempt.

#60 SlackerInc

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Posted 29 October 2008 - 04:23 AM

View PostMovingIn, on Tuesday, October 28th, 2008, 8:46 PM, said:

People steal from the hijack seat, Alan. But you seriously don't think an open raise from the hijack seat from a deep stack, late in a tournament against short stacks, is a steal attempt.
Your grammar's a little hard to follow there. Was that supposed to be a question?In any event: the blinds are not "short stacks": just the opposite. The CO and button are short stacks, but it is the blinds he'd actually be stealing from. I guess what I'd say is: if you think most of the time villain here is making a steal with ATC and is very likely going to fold (assuming you get past the big stacks in the blinds), then I suppose it doesn't matter what cards hero holds: he can make the resteal with ATC himself. But if this is at all based on the big bad scary KQo representing hero well if and when he gets called by someone, then I'm just not with you. KQ isn't way ahead of many hands, and in fact it's behind the majority of hands villain might hold IMO. And personally, if I'm villain and hero has a LAGgy image as he stated, if the blinds fold and it comes back around to me, I call 90% of the time.




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