73 replies to this topic

[TrueAce13]

Villain had been playing a solid game, though caught him stealing a few times to pick up the blinds and antes.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10+$1 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t30531)
UTG (t25401)
MP (t15464)
CO (t7512)
Hero (Button) (t5157)
SB (t56584)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, K
1 fold, MP raises to t1200, 1 fold,Hero?

Shove/Fold/Flat? Suggestions

[sennin]

Pretty standard shove I think

[HighwayStar]

Give him the Pile!

[SlackerInc]

Pretty standard shove I think

It's a standard shove if everyone folds to the button (or even if someone limps, if you've confirmed they are a HBL rather than someone being tricky from EP with aces). I think though that Sklansky's Gap Principle applies quite well here when someone has already raised; and KQ is a relatively weak hand (dominated by AK and AQ, and a dog against any PP and even Ax). It's not like you can put villain in mortal fear with your stack that is one-third the size of his. And though I don't advocate shutting down completely near the bubble by any means, that is a factor as well. Much better to steal when no one has shown strength.

I wouldn't completely rule out a shove, but I'd need more info. When villain was caught stealing, was it from MP, or more from the CO or button? How aggressive have the SB and BB been in defending their blinds? Most solid players would I think be careful about going on a pure steal from relatively poor position, against the two players that have double and triple their chips! (Unfortunately for villain, he doesn't have other middling stacks to steal from: as Phil Gordon has pointed out, trying to steal from desperate short stacks can be troublesome.)

Is it a turbo? Are the blinds going up soon? If not, I think I'd lean toward waiting for a better spot. I don't like a flat call with an M almost in the Red Zone, especially since hitting the flop might mean you're drawing slim against AK or AQ anyway. And speaking of AK and AQ, what do you do if you flat call, then the flop is AKx or AQx? Hard to fold in that situation, but also hard not to feel like you are very likely to be beat. Just ugly all around.

Alan

[TrueAce13]

It's a standard shove if everyone folds to the button (or even if someone limps, if you've confirmed they are a HBL rather than someone being tricky from EP with aces). I think though that Sklansky's Gap Principle applies quite well here when someone has already raised; and KQ is a relatively weak hand (dominated by AK and AQ, and a dog against any PP and even Ax). It's not like you can put villain in mortal fear with your stack that is one-third the size of his. And though I don't advocate shutting down completely near the bubble by any means, that is a factor as well. Much better to steal when no one has shown strength.

I wouldn't completely rule out a shove, but I'd need more info. When villain was caught stealing, was it from MP, or more from the CO or button? How aggressive have the SB and BB been in defending their blinds? Most solid players would I think be careful about going on a pure steal from relatively poor position, against the two players that have double and triple their chips! (Unfortunately for villain, he doesn't have other middling stacks to steal from: as Phil Gordon has pointed out, trying to steal from desperate short stacks can be troublesome.)

Is it a turbo? Are the blinds going up soon? If not, I think I'd lean toward waiting for a better spot. I don't like a flat call with an M almost in the Red Zone, especially since hitting the flop might mean you're drawing slim against AK or AQ anyway. And speaking of AK and AQ, what do you do if you flat call, then the flop is AKx or AQx? Hard to fold in that situation, but also hard not to feel like you are very likely to be beat. Just ugly all around.

Alan

Alright, I definitely understand where you are coming from. I have shoved on him about 5 times actually in this entire tourny (twice as a steal, others actually having a hand). He has been in MP for 2 of my overshoves after he raised. Its not a turbo and the blinds were going to go up in about 7 minutes. I have shoved many times seeing that my M is almost in the red zone, but have not been called once. I think that is definitely a key thing here because my image is looking like a LAGtard most likely. So, with that, what do we think?

[Gallo]

Villain had been playing a solid game, though caught him stealing a few times to pick up the blinds and antes.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10+$1 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t30531)
UTG (t25401)
MP (t15464)
CO (t7512)
Hero (Button) (t5157)
SB (t56584)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, K
1 fold, MP raises to t1200, 1 fold,Hero?

Shove/Fold/Flat? Suggestions

I'd probably shove here. You're suggesting that he could be stealing with a wide range, meaning that you feel that you're more than likely ahead and if not KQ with only 12BBs is not a bad hand to be reshoving with. So either you'll double up or bubble. These are the chances that you have to take sometimes to win in an MTT.

[MovingIn]

It's a standard shove if everyone folds to the button (or even if someone limps, if you've confirmed they are a HBL rather than someone being tricky from EP with aces). I think though that Sklansky's Gap Principle applies quite well here when someone has already raised; and KQ is a relatively weak hand (dominated by AK and AQ, and a dog against any PP and even Ax). It's not like you can put villain in mortal fear with your stack that is one-third the size of his. And though I don't advocate shutting down completely near the bubble by any means, that is a factor as well. Much better to steal when no one has shown strength.

What range do you put this villain on here?

[HighwayStar]

I think if you do the maths on it you'll find this is a profitable shove against almost any villain. Maybe not the biggest nit who won't fold to a shove..

Use your fold equity whilst you still have it.

[SlackerInc]

What range do you put this villain on here?

As I said, it depends on whether he has been stealing from MP against the dominant chip stacks, something I'd think a "solid" player would be reluctant to do. My sense of a solid player given these parameters is that he's likely to have 88+, ATo+, maybe A8s+, KQ, maybe JTs. Not a great range for us to be against. Do you think his range is likely to be much wider?

Alan

[SlackerInc]

Use your fold equity whilst you still have it.

I don't see a whole lot of fold equity here. Assuming Hero's shove isolates the hand to a HU situation (everyone else folds and it comes back around to villain), villain is getting almost 2-1 to call a shortstack who can be assumed to be somewhat desperate and therefore have a wide range, and who in fact has said he has a LAGgy, almost maniacal, table image. And villain at that point knows even if he calls and loses, he still has not risked a huge portion of his stack.

Alan

[HighwayStar]

Villain has to call about 4000 to win 1200 + 400 + 200 + 300 + 5200 = 7300 = 1.85:1 which gives you a fare amount of fold equity against a half decent player.

I dunno what villains opening range is here but a standard villain with this stack may have this sort of range (given you say he's stealing blinds occasionally)

22+,A5s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,A8o+,KJo+,QJo - 20%

and getting 1.85:1 he's probably calling with

55+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo - 10%

This is how KQo fares against that calling range.
Hand 0: 63.179% { 55+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 36.821% { KQo }

So, approximately
50% of time you make a profit of 1200 + 400 + 200 + 300 = +1600 chips
50 * 0.37 = 18.5% of the time you make a profit of 5200+400+200+300 = + 6100 chips
50 * 0.63 = 31.5% of the time you make a loss of 5200 = -5200 chips

Making the overall .5 * 1600 + .185 * 6100 - .315* 5200 = + 800 + 1128.5 - 1638 = +290.5 ~ 300 = 3/4 of a BB which is a decent win rate although not quite as high as I was expecting.

Personally I open a lot wider (with a ton of suited 1 gappers/2 gappers given the big stacks in the blinds) and call about the same so this shove is probably way more profitable against me than against the villain in this calcuation.

[MovingIn]

As I said, it depends on whether he has been stealing from MP against the dominant chip stacks, something I'd think a "solid" player would be reluctant to do. My sense of a solid player given these parameters is that he's likely to have 88+, ATo+, maybe A8s+, KQ, maybe JTs. Not a great range for us to be against. Do you think his range is likely to be much wider?

Alan

OP, at what positions was this villain attempting to steal (or appearing to attempt to steal)?

[SlackerInc]

So, approximately
50% of time you make a profit of 1200 + 400 + 200 + 300 = +1600 chips
50 * 0.37 = 18.5% of the time you make a profit of 5200+400+200+300 = + 6100 chips
50 * 0.63 = 31.5% of the time you make a loss of 5200 = -5200 chips

Making the overall .5 * 1600 + .185 * 6100 - .315* 5200 = + 800 + 1128.5 - 1638 = +290.5 ~ 300 = 3/4 of a BB which is a decent win rate although not quite as high as I was expecting.

And this doesn't account for the volatility factor of the different results as opposed to the "average". This is near the bubble, after all!

Alan

[MovingIn]

... and we need to double through somebody, because we're the short stack on the outside looking in. What exactly are we waiting for, and what are the chances we get it while it still matters and are we assured we'll get any action if/when we do?

All this assumes villain is raising with a legit hand and not trying to steal the button. The only players with position on him this hand are the short stacks and if they've been nitting it up, he may believe a steal attempt can work here.

[SlackerInc]

... and we need to double through somebody, because we're the short stack on the outside looking in. What exactly are we waiting for, and what are the chances we get it while it still matters and are we assured we'll get any action if/when we do?

All this assumes villain is raising with a legit hand and not trying to steal the button. The only players with position on him this hand are the short stacks and if they've been nitting it up, he may believe a steal attempt can work here.

We don't necessarily need to double through anyone. I have doubled my stack just by stealing blinds and antes when Ms are low.

Alan

[MovingIn]

If stealing the blinds and antes doubles your stack, that's a sign you're in deep, deep trouble.

[sennin]

sigh

shove

ainec

end of story

[SlackerInc]

If stealing the blinds and antes doubles your stack, that's a sign you're in deep, deep trouble.

I didn't mean with one round of stealing them. I meant from say stealing them three times in a stretch of six or seven hands. And Q needs to be kept in mind, not just M. Sometimes everyone's in the Red Zone, so having an M of 3 doesn't mean you're even below average.

[Gallo]

We don't necessarily need to double through anyone. I have doubled my stack just by stealing blinds and antes when Ms are low.

Alan

Not sure if it was you or someone else that posted a concern. But didn't you post about how there have been a lot of times that you seem to bubble and not make it far in tournies? I mean, with being this shortstacked you have to shove, you cannot always wait for premium, there are certain spots that you're going to have to call off/shove with lesser hands.

As far as you mentioning doubling your stack by stealing blinds/antes like 3 times per orbit, I find it kinda hard to believe, at times that will be difficult.

[SlackerInc]

Not sure if it was you or someone else that posted a concern. But didn't you post about how there have been a lot of times that you seem to bubble and not make it far in tournies? I mean, with being this shortstacked you have to shove, you cannot always wait for premium, there are certain spots that you're going to have to call off/shove with lesser hands.

As far as you mentioning doubling your stack by stealing blinds/antes like 3 times per orbit, I find it kinda hard to believe, at times that will be difficult.

I don't think I wait for premium hands by any stretch. I will shove with 54s or T8o if the situation is right. But I don't like calling shoves, or shoving after someone has raised, unless I have a premium hand.

I should have saved the HH of a $5.50 45 I played last night. People were playing really tight and though it was not a turbo, with nine players left (seven get paid) the big stack was in the Orange Zone and most everyone was in the Red. I shoved three times in the span of seven hands, picked up the blinds and antes (plus a limp in one case) without ever getting called, and moved my position from 7th of 9 to 3rd of 9 (I ended up finishing second).

Alan