Picked Up A Draw On The Turn

[BaseJester 1]

BB's icon is a scary bird in gametime+. Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) MP2 ($113.45)MP3 ($155.90)CO ($200)Button ($285.20)basejester (SB) ($280.45)BB ($197)UTG+1 ($413.55)MP1 ($232.60)Preflop: basejester is SB with A 8 5 folds, CO checks, 1 fold, basejester raises to $8, BB calls $6, CO calls $8Flop: ($24) J 5 9 (3 players)basejester checks, BB checks, CO checks.Turn: ($24) 7 (3 players) basejester bets $13 , BB raises to $26, 1 fold, basejester calls $26River: ($76) 10 (2 players) basejester bets $34 , BB raises to $92, basejester ??Edit: ****ing POS converter.

Edited September 25, 2008 by BaseJester

[BaseJester 1]

I don't know wtf preflop is. I was just hoping they would give me the money.The flop is unfortunate with the middle cards. I think that's likely to hit a caller, and my pair draw sucks.I pick up the draw on the turn and take a stab. I'm priced in by the wimpy raise.I don't think he's particularly strong on the river, so I don't want to discourage him from raising my bet.

[pokerinc 0]

68 definitely makes sense for his holdings. You did bet weak on turn though so maybe he makes a move there w/ qkhh, the raise is weird bad on his part. I flat b/c I'm incredible at having villian show up w/ monstro retardo hands here (q8off) and I can't figure out what hand calls a raise that doesn't at least chop.Also no clue what big scary bird stats are so there's that...Basically the way this hand is played there should be no winner imo. Call a do-over and both of you play better next time.

[NoBBiR 0]

68 definitely makes sense for his holdings. You did bet weak on turn though so maybe he makes a move there w/ qkhh, the raise is weird bad on his part. I flat b/c I'm incredible at having villian show up w/ monstro retardo hands here (q8off) and I can't figure out what hand calls a raise that doesn't at least chop.Also no clue what big scary bird stats are so there's that...Basically the way this hand is played there should be no winner imo. Call a do-over and both of you play better next time.

MEANS HE ALWAYS HAS THE NUTZ. AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[Snamuh 0]

Well you are calling for a chop but it's really hard to imagine him having Q8 or KQ here, though Q8 at least had a turn double gutter. For the price you are getting, I'm pretty sure you just have to call, as you are going to see 68 or 8T more often than anything else. I do think you should bet the turn a lot stronger though. Also, really not a fan of preflop, despite the poster. OOP with this hand just sucks, especially because posters aren't especially eager to fold (they paid the post so they could see more hands and more flops).

[krup24 0]

i hate the turn it's like flushing money down the toilet

[mtdesmoines 2]

BB's icon is a scary bird in gametime+. Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) MP2 ($113.45)MP3 ($155.90)CO ($200)Button ($285.20)basejester (SB) ($280.45)BB ($197)UTG+1 ($413.55)MP1 ($232.60)Preflop: basejester is SB with A 8 5 folds, CO checks, 1 fold, basejester raises to $8, BB calls $6, CO calls $8Flop: ($24) J 5 9 (3 players)basejester checks, BB checks, CO checks.Turn: ($24) 7 (3 players) basejester bets $13 , BB raises to $26, 1 fold, basejester calls $26River: ($76) 10 (2 players) basejester bets $34 , BB raises to $92, basejester ??Edit: ****ing POS converter.

cbet the flopprob don't bet the turn although you do have a double gutter, right?snap call the river; no value in raisingwhat in particular is scary about the bird?

[DonkSlayer 1]

I bet slightly more on the turn (~$17) and fold to a minraise. Shove river.

[NoBBiR 0]

what in particular is scary about the bird?

Hmmm.JUST LOOK AT IT.

[BaseJester 1]

I bet slightly more on the turn (~$17) and fold to a minraise.

Not folding to the minraise was the only thing I felt confident about in the whole hand.

Shove river.

Hoping that another 8 will fold?

[Sens-Eh 0]

FWIW - I don't mind your Preflop play(although I make it $10 to go) - because it looks like the CO had just posted to get into the game, and then checked thru. To me this indicates weakness. BB could have anything of course, but usually an A is the best hand preflop in this situation and you have it. Raise to take down all the dead money.I don't mind the check thru on the flop, and I bet more on the turn, and am not so certain I call that minraise without knowing more about what "scary birds" are in GT, LOL...(I would often fold to it).hmmm, No way he has K,Q so I see no reason to not shove everything you have left in, after his river raise. (maybe he will have a set of 7's he can't get away from - although I don't think so). I am interested to hear from those who say there is no value in shoving this....He has the 3rd nuts, and is not scared at all of the better two hands. Other then increasing rake or something like that - why not raise it up, and see if trips will pay him off. ((again, I reiterate, that I don't believe we are running into trips, but even a small possibility makes it worth while to me)...I don't think hero's 8 is all that obvious so trips could convince themselves they are beating a two pair hand......

[BaseJester 1]

I bet slightly more on the turn (~$17) and fold to a minraise. Shove river.

This makes less sense to me the more I think about it. If you think there's a significant chance he'll pay off a whole stack on the river with a worse hand, why wouldn't you want to draw for the smallest raise possible?

[BaseJester 1]

Results:

basejester calls. Villain shows A K

[DonkSlayer 1]

This makes less sense to me the more I think about it. If you think there's a significant chance he'll pay off a whole stack on the river with a worse hand, why wouldn't you want to draw for the smallest raise possible?

He has $108 in the pot and would be getting better than 2:1 to stack off if you shove. Is it really even a question?

[BaseJester 1]

He has $108 in the pot and would be getting better than 2:1 to stack off if you shove. Is it really even a question?

I'm confused as to why you don't want to call a minraise, then. We're getting proper odds from the pot to call $13 without any implied odds. And nearly so if we bet $17 and the raise is $17. If you think we have big implied odds on top of that, calling the turn is very profitable. So we should do it. There are some real concerns: he might have a straight already or be drawing to a better one. Those don't erase the excellent odds, though, in my opinion.Hmmm. Maybe you're not noticing that a 6 makes us a straight as well?

[Snamuh 0]

He has $108 in the pot and would be getting better than 2:1 to stack off if you shove. Is it really even a question?

You have a huge misconception about how pot odds work and how people should respond to them. It doesn't matter if you are giving them 2:1 in a spot where they can't realistically call with worse. They wouldn't reraise for value with worse than a naked 8 here and certainly wouldn't call a 3bet worse.

[Snamuh 0]

2008, 12:28 PM' post='2811875']I'm confused as to why you don't want to call a minraise, then. We're getting proper odds from the pot to call $13 without any implied odds. And nearly so if we bet $17 and the raise is $17.[/b] If you think we have big implied odds on top of that, calling the turn is very profitable. So we should do it. There are some real concerns: he might have a straight already or be drawing to a better one. Those don't erase the excellent odds, though, in my opinion.Hmmm. Maybe you're not noticing that a 6 makes us a straight as well?

If you are arguing against betting more on the turn, isn't it a bit results oriented to say this? You don't know he's going to minraise at all. You should bet more on the turn to encourage him to fold more often.

[BaseJester 1]

If you are arguing against betting more on the turn, isn't it a bit results oriented to say this?

I'm not arguing against that. I'm arguing against folding to a minraise. I quoted the passage and italicized that part. I really don't know how I can be any more clear.

You don't know he's going to minraise at all. You should bet more on the turn to encourage him to fold more often.

ok

[BaseJester 1]

You have a huge misconception about how pot odds work and how people should respond to them. It doesn't matter if you are giving them 2:1 in a spot where they can't realistically call with worse. They wouldn't reraise for value with worse than a naked 8 here and certainly wouldn't call a 3bet worse.

This I agree with. The villain won't call with worse than a straight without a completely crazy history.

[DonkSlayer 1]

I'm confused as to why you don't want to call a minraise, then. We're getting proper odds from the pot to call $13 without any implied odds. And nearly so if we bet $17 and the raise is $17. If you think we have big implied odds on top of that, calling the turn is very profitable. So we should do it. There are some real concerns: he might have a straight already or be drawing to a better one. Those don't erase the excellent odds, though, in my opinion.Hmmm. Maybe you're not noticing that a 6 makes us a straight as well?

I was, doh. Even after I chose to disagree with you the 2nd time. Double doh. I get the call of the minraise. Nh.

You have a huge misconception about how pot odds work and how people should respond to them. It doesn't matter if you are giving them 2:1 in a spot where they can't realistically call with worse. They wouldn't reraise for value with worse than a naked 8 here and certainly wouldn't call a 3bet worse.

So just call because we're splitting? I don't have a misconception about pot odds at all...I think we're on completely different fields here as to where we're at and where we think villain is at. On the turn I have villain on air or a set (10 8 here really?) given the action. River comes, we aren't scared and he still raises us. Villlain only has 70 behind, so minreraising him still makes us put $60 more out and leaves him $10 behind if he just calls your bet. So, in order to justify Snamuh and Base's thinking, villain has an 8 or KQ here often enough that it's more profitable just to call than to raise. I disagree with the range you're giving villain, so that's where the issue is..not that I don't get pot odds.

This I agree with. The villain won't call with worse than a straight without a completely crazy history.

I just disagree. If I had worse than a straight as the villain I would've just called your river donkbet, but unless I chose to try the bluff again on the river, I'm certainly stacking off with a set. I have to.

[BaseJester 1]

I just disagree. If I had worse than a straight as the villain I would've just called your river donkbet, but unless I chose to try the bluff again on the river, I'm certainly stacking off with a set. I have to.

I guess you have to if you think you have the winner more than 18% of the time.

[Snamuh 0]

So just call because we're splitting? I don't have a misconception about pot odds at all...I think we're on completely different fields here as to where we're at and where we think villain is at. On the turn I have villain on air or a set (10 8 here really?) given the action. River comes, we aren't scared and he still raises us. Villlain only has 70 behind, so minreraising him still makes us put $60 more out and leaves him $10 behind if he just calls your bet. So, in order to justify Snamuh and Base's thinking, villain has an 8 or KQ here often enough that it's more profitable just to call than to raise. I disagree with the range you're giving villain, so that's where the issue is..not that I don't get pot odds.I just disagree. If I had worse than a straight as the villain I would've just called your river donkbet, but unless I chose to try the bluff again on the river, I'm certainly stacking off with a set. I have to.

We lose to Q8 as well (which is definitely as likely if not more likely than KQ).Your logic is contradictory. First of all, how can you rule T8 out of villain's range on the turn but have a set in his range???? Naked 8s on the turn are essentially air as well (gutshot but low equity). Then you say on the river "if I had worse than a straight as the villain, I would've just called your river donkbet." So you are saying he isn't raising river with a set, but then you are saying he's stacking off with one? This is either a straight or air on the end. We get zero (or negative) value out of 3betting the river vs any hand in the villain's range. Even if you think there's a slim chance the villain has a set (which I think is extremely slim), the chances he shows up with Q8 or KQ outnumber it.

[Snamuh 0]

I guess you have to if you think you have the winner more than 18% of the time.

But you don't have the winner more than 18% of the time if you are villain holding a set. No one bluff 3bets here 18% of the time. Most people bluff 3bet here ZERO percent of the time. It's what I mean when I say people are irrational about pot odds in situations like these. Yeah, you need to be right only 18% of the time, but people are almost never ever bluff 3betting rivers.

[BaseJester 1]

But you don't have the winner more than 18% of the time if you are villain holding a set. No one bluff 3bets here 18% of the time. Most people bluff 3bet here ZERO percent of the time. It's what I mean when I say people are irrational about pot odds in situations like these. Yeah, you need to be right only 18% of the time, but people are almost never ever bluff 3betting rivers.

I agree. Because I expect the villain to fold his non-straights, I chose to only call his raise on the river.18% is in my opinion an optimistically high rate of bluffing to put the hero on for this action, and my point was to emphasize that nothing besides this sort of mathematical judgment compels anyone to call the river.

[NoBBiR 0]

He thought he had the NF. Woops.