53 replies to this topic

[Tactical Bear]

Okay. I didn't get shellacked last week. Here are the early leans, all lines from Pinny or Wagerline.

UL-Monroe +6 @ Tulane

Tulane cashed for me last week, giving ECU all they could handle. They would've won straight up, save for a few mental breakdowns on defense and some special teams problems. Tulane's going to get hammered at this number. This line is going to be important to watch. What the books do with all the Tulane action they take is going to be a big signal as to our play, here. Also, I am growing to ****ing HATE the Sun Belt conference.


Temple +28 at Penn State

This Temple team is more respectable than past incarnations, but Penn State is awesome. I thought this line was going to open here if the books like Temple, and 32.5ish if the books didn't have a preference. The books like Temple here, and I'll probably trust them and get killed fading Penn State AGAIN.


Fresno at Toledo +7

Fresno lost a nationally televised game last week, so I don't know if I'll be able to touch this, but if the line holds steady I'll probably have to. This is kind of a disgusting number. How is Toledo going to score?


Arizona at UCLA +1.5

Unfortunately New Mexico beat Rizo last week, so this line might not have as much value as it could, but UCLA got embarrassed by BYU, so it's still probably a play. I really like this look, which is a cue to stay away.


Notre Dame at Sparty -8.5

This is going to be a tough decision. I really like Sparty here, and I think they'll win by 2TDs, but that's football Wang talking. If this game just gets split action, I'll probably pass, but I'm admitting right now that I'm looking hard for reasons to play Sparty.


Georgia at Arizona State +7

This is even sicker than last week's SC look. The books are NOT big UGA fans right now. Georgia played poorly against SC, and somehow I still only got a push out of it. Arizona State lost to UNLV at 22 point favorites last week. Hopefully Erickson knows what he's doing, here.


Florida at Tennessee +7.5

Tennessee lost to UCLA, who lost to BYU by 50+. Florida covers 7.5 here in the first 2 possessions.


Alabama at Arkansas +9.5

I have nothing to say here.


Vanderbilt at Mississippi -7

Standard anti-public chalk look.


Iowa at Pittsburgh -1.5

Ugh


LSU at Auburn +2.5

The books will stubbornly refuse to give up the hook, and I'll lose by fieldgoal.


Mississippi State +8 at Georgia Tech

I'm not sure what I'm doing anymore. I'm fading the ACC with the SEC, and fading the SEC with the ACC. If anything, I should be ignoring this game completely, but I won't be able to do it.


THURSDAY NIGHT SPECIAL

West Vagina at Colorado +2.5

Good luck, Coach Stewart.

[HollywoodAFD]

Wow.


I don't see anything that looks really good.
No way I can repeat last weeks 9-0-1 with these lines.


Good for you contrarianismists though.... lots of that.

[Poppy_Hillis]

Wow.
I don't see anything that looks really good.
No way I can repeat last weeks 9-0-1 with these lines.
Good for you contrarianismists though.... lots of that.

Wait, you went 9-0-1? I didn't hear about that. Next time make some posts so we know about it.

[powerpoker]

Okay. I didn't get shellacked last week. Here are the early leans, all lines from Pinny or Wagerline.

UL-Monroe +6 @ Tulane---I agree with takin the 6 here, Tulane is coming up two big games, dont know if they get up for this one.

Tulane cashed for me last week, giving ECU all they could handle. They would've won straight up, save for a few mental breakdowns on defense and some special teams problems. Tulane's going to get hammered at this number. This line is going to be important to watch. What the books do with all the Tulane action they take is going to be a big signal as to our play, here. Also, I am growing to ****ing HATE the Sun Belt conference.

Temple +28 at Penn State--i wouldnt take temple here but i do like the over, think its at like 51, PSU is averaging 55 a game so even if they dont hit thier avg, temple should be able to get late cheap points.
This Temple team is more respectable than past incarnations, but Penn State is awesome. I thought this line was going to open here if the books like Temple, and 32.5ish if the books didn't have a preference. The books like Temple here, and I'll probably trust them and get killed fading Penn State AGAIN.
Fresno at Toledo +7----Agreed, big let down from fresno, plus travel, and toledo is a good home team, horrid on the road though.

Fresno lost a nationally televised game last week, so I don't know if I'll be able to touch this, but if the line holds steady I'll probably have to. This is kind of a disgusting number. How is Toledo going to score?
Arizona at UCLA +1.5--I like the other side, but I dont know if I get involved.

Unfortunately New Mexico beat Rizo last week, so this line might not have as much value as it could, but UCLA got embarrassed by BYU, so it's still probably a play. I really like this look, which is a cue to stay away.
Notre Dame at Sparty -8.5---Love this play, Notre dame capatilized off 6 Mich T.O. and got out gained by Mich by a decent margin, I think mich st. rolls here, there running game should punish the defensive line of ND.

This is going to be a tough decision. I really like Sparty here, and I think they'll win by 2TDs, but that's football Wang talking. If this game just gets split action, I'll probably pass, but I'm admitting right now that I'm looking hard for reasons to play Sparty.
Georgia at Arizona State +7---BLAH
This is even sicker than last week's SC look. The books are NOT big UGA fans right now. Georgia played poorly against SC, and somehow I still only got a push out of it. Arizona State lost to UNLV at 22 point favorites last week. Hopefully Erickson knows what he's doing, here.
Florida at Tennessee +7.5---Ill take Fla, comin off a bye week, would have to buy the hook though.

Tennessee lost to UCLA, who lost to BYU by 50+. Florida covers 7.5 here in the first 2 possessions.
Alabama at Arkansas +9.5

I have nothing to say here.---Me either.

Vanderbilt at Mississippi -7--I like Miss here

Standard anti-public chalk look.

Iowa at Pittsburgh -1.5--I will never trust D.W. with my money.
Ugh
LSU at Auburn +2.5--Like auburn here, and the line at out here in vegas at my book is +3, i really want it to get at 3.5, i guess ill wait to see what happens.

The books will stubbornly refuse to give up the hook, and I'll lose by fieldgoal.
Mississippi State +8 at Georgia Tech--I probably wont play this game but if thier defense comes up with another good game they can slow down GT. Becareful of the look ahead situation that Miss St. is in with LSU next for them.
I'm not sure what I'm doing anymore. I'm fading the ACC with the SEC, and fading the SEC with the ACC. If anything, I should be ignoring this game completely, but I won't be able to do it.
THURSDAY NIGHT SPECIAL

West Vagina at Colorado +2.5---I already have colorado +3 in

Good luck, Coach Stewart.

We agree on a lot of games this week or at least the games you listed i like almost all of the same plays....Gook Luck.

[DinkDonk]

Wait, you went 9-0-1? I didn't hear about that. Next time make some posts so we know about it.

I agree. Why didn't you share that little piece of information with the rest of us? Some of us would really like to know about it.

[ltrainkoja55]

Hey Wang and power poker --- do you think the line on MSU/ND will change from 8.5? Or is the best it will get get?

Edit-- also I am leaning Wake Forest +4. Do you have any thoughts on this one?

[powerpoker]

Hey Wang and power poker --- do you think the line on MSU/ND will change from 8.5? Or is the best it will get get?

Edit-- also I am leaning Wake Forest +4. Do you have any thoughts on this one?

8.5 is kinda a dead line...usually if a team covers 7 they will win by 10 more...so i wouldnt really worry to much about this line.

I like wake here as well, they have been very good as road dogs and with a week off ill take the verteran wake team against a young Fla St. Fla St. is good against weak opponents but wake has a very good defense and should fair well here. Take the points and buying it to 4.5 is not a bad idea.

[ltrainkoja55]

8.5 is kinda a dead line...usually if a team covers 7 they will win by 10 more...so i wouldnt really worry to much about this line.

I like wake here as well, they have been very good at road dogs and with a week off ill take the points.

thanks--

Yeah I think Wake is the better team and the points make it very attractive. I will say that since I like it --- stay away from it!!!!!!!! I am not running well!

[Tactical Bear]

Wait, you went 9-0-1? I didn't hear about that. Next time make some posts so we know about it.

I agree. Why didn't you share that little piece of information with the rest of us? Some of us would really like to know about it.

Wait, who went 9-0-1?

I'm especially impressed with Hollywood's call on the Maryland game, 2 hours after it was over. Lock it up, bra!

Hey Wang and power poker --- do you think the line on MSU/ND will change from 8.5? Or is the best it will get get?

Edit-- also I am leaning Wake Forest +4. Do you have any thoughts on this one?

I have no real lean, but gun to my head I lay the points with Florida State. I thought that game would be closer to a PK or maybe FSU -2.5. The extra points make me want to take FSU. If it moves to 3.5, I won't touch it. If it moves to 4.5 I'd consider a play on FSU.

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I'm considering taking FSU as a side this week. Everyone will want to play Wake.

[ltrainkoja55]

Wait, who went 9-0-1?

I'm especially impressed with Hollywood's call on the Maryland game, 2 hours after it was over. Lock it up, bra!
I have no real lean, but gun to my head I lay the points with Florida State. I thought that game would be closer to a PK or maybe FSU -2.5. The extra points make me want to take FSU. If it moves to 3.5, I won't touch it. If it moves to 4.5 I'd consider a play on FSU.

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I'm considering taking FSU as a side this week. Everyone will want to play Wake.

Thanks for the response-- I have a question-- please remember I am a novice. If the line goes to 4.5 wouldn't that mean the public likes FSU? Wouldn't you then avoid FSU?

If this is covered in sports betting 201 then sorry-- I am actually reading it now so not quite up to where this would be answered-- thanks

[Tactical Bear]

Thanks for the response-- I have a question-- please remember I am a novice. If the line goes to 4.5 wouldn't that mean the public likes FSU? Wouldn't you then avoid FSU?

If this is covered in sports betting 201 then sorry-- I am actually reading it now so not quite up to where this would be answered-- thanks

This is a very good question.

From what I've seen so far, the line is -- at best -- split action (meaning 50/50). It's more likely that FSU is getting closer to 40% of the action. All the leans I've seen at covers (and, here, from you and powerpoker) suggest Wake +4 is the more attractive side to sports bettors.

So, if Wake is public, and the book gives up MORE points, if they encourage MORE Wake action, we could reasonably draw the conclusion that the books like FSU to cover. Why else would they encourage even more lopsided action on a game? If they move the line down to Wake +3, then they're probably booking a little more Wake action then they're comfortable with, and want to limit their liability and hope it doesn't land squarely on 3 or 4.

Wang

[ltrainkoja55]

very interesting-- appreciate the response! I will monitor this line. When is it okay to determine when the public has decided a play. Is it over the 60 percent? Is there a minium number of plays on a wager before you can consider public opinion firm? ( using wagerline stats) It seems betting early would be a no no? Or does late action usually not affect the opinion.

[HollywoodAFD]

Wait, you went 9-0-1? I didn't hear about that. Next time make some posts so we know about it.

Yea... it's true. Did you hear?

Last week I went 9-0-1
*leans back in chair and smiles*


Ahhhhh... I can hardly wait to give it all back with my 0-fer week.

Could happen this week with these lines....stay tuned.

[HollywoodAFD]

Wait, who went 9-0-1?

I'm especially impressed with Hollywood's call on the Maryland game, 2 hours after it was over. Lock it up, bra!
I have no real lean, but gun to my head I lay the points with Florida State. I thought that game would be closer to a PK or maybe FSU -2.5. The extra points make me want to take FSU. If it moves to 3.5, I won't touch it. If it moves to 4.5 I'd consider a play on FSU.

Actually, the more I think about it, the more I'm considering taking FSU as a side this week. Everyone will want to play Wake.

Don't be a hater.... you'll get above water soon....maybe

[Tactical Bear]

Let's get the losing started early.

Tha 'Ville +4.5 +103 (4x)


I wasn't sure if I was going to play this or not, but then I realized I am really bored. This will be over by the end of the first quarter.

[HollywoodAFD]

Let's get the losing started early.

Tha 'Ville +4.5 +103 (4x)
I wasn't sure if I was going to play this or not, but then I realized I am really bored. This will be over by the end of the first quarter.

I can only get -5


I don't like it... i see why you are going +4.5
LOTS of people going with KS

[Tactical Bear]

I can only get -5


I don't like it... i see why you are going +4.5
LOTS of people going with KS

I could have had +5 -105, which is the exact same thing. I chose to save a little money when Ville gets crushed.

[Tactical Bear]

Well, I've got some good-news/bad-news.

Bad News: After a long fight, my grandfather passed away a few hours ago.

Good News: He was born in Kentucky, and lived in Louisville for a short while. He was never a big football fan, but he liked the fact that I gambled. He got a kick out of my poker "habit," and would have loved the notion of risking obscene sums of money on meaningless sports contests. He used to kick my ass at checkers as a kid, and was the only person who would compete ruthlessly with me when I was a child. He never let me win, not once. When I beat him at checkers for the first time, he was furious, and didn't lose to me again for at least 3 years.


My grandfather also had a pretty good sense of humor, so I'm probably losing this bet.

[ltrainkoja55]

Well, I've got some good-news/bad-news.

Bad News: After a long fight, my grandfather passed away a few hours ago.

Good News: He was born in Kentucky, and lived in Louisville for a short while. He was never a big football fan, but he liked the fact that I gambled. He got a kick out of my poker "habit," and would have loved the notion of risking obscene sums of money on meaningless sports contests. He used to kick my ass at checkers as a kid, and was the only person who would compete ruthlessly with me when I was a child. He never let me win, not once. When I beat him at checkers for the first time, he was furious, and didn't lose to me again for at least 3 years.
My grandfather also had a pretty good sense of humor, so I'm probably losing this bet.

wow-- very sorry-- I wish your family well during this time

[Tactical Bear]

wow-- very sorry-- I wish your family well during this time

I think we should be focusing on the good news. I'm looking for some kind of "Angel from above wills K-State to victory/3pt loss."