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Big Draw On The Turn


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#41 Syous

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Posted 27 August 2008 - 07:21 PM

why would we ever c/c the turn. His range is wider than an ace here and you know he probably almost never has ak and rarely aq. I'd much rather bet the turn, someone stove it please but I think we have decent equity as well as fold equity

#42 BaseJester

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Posted 27 August 2008 - 07:33 PM

View PostSyous, on Wednesday, August 27th, 2008, 11:21 PM, said:

why would we ever c/c the turn. His range is wider than an ace here and you know he probably almost never has ak and rarely aq. I'd much rather bet the turn, someone stove it please but I think we have decent equity as well as fold equity
Those funny squiggly lines on your computer monitor are called "letters" and "numbers", and they make up posts made by other people.Thought you might want to know.
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#43 Snamuh

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 09:49 AM

View PostBaseJester, on Wednesday, August 27th, 2008, 11:33 PM, said:

Those funny squiggly lines on your computer monitor are called "letters" and "numbers", and they make up posts made by other people.Thought you might want to know.
He wants a new stove. The ranges presented in this thread are horribly skewed. We should expect AA/AK/AQ/KK/QQ to be 4betting a fair amount of the time preflop (ESPECIALLY AK more than any other hand in the range).It's also pretty ridiculous to say that he's calling with an A far more often than with TT-KK. The big aces are more likely to be 4bet, and some of the aces are likely to be raised on the flop.
Snamuh raises to $76.75, and is all in
BigKamp: yyou lose
BigKamp has 15 seconds left to act
BigKamp calls $24.50, and is all in
Seat 1: BigKamp (small blind) mucked [Ad Ac] - a full house, Aces full of Kings
Seat 2: Snamuh (big blind) showed [Kd Kh] and won ($102.50) with four of a kind, Kings
Snamuh: you lose

#44 simo_8ball

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 10:01 AM

View PostSnamuh, on Thursday, August 28th, 2008, 6:49 PM, said:

We should expect AA/AK/AQ/KK/QQ to be 4betting a fair amount of the time preflop (ESPECIALLY AK more than any other hand in the range).
People 4bet QQ+ FAR more often than AQ. Also, why would he raise the flop with AQ? We never fold anything better, and he just folds out anything worse.Thus far in this thread all you've said is "no, you're wrong, shove AINEC" without offering anything constructive. What do you see his range as being on the turn? How often do you think he will he fold to a turn shove?BTW, what do you do with AA, AK, AT, 99, etc on the turn? You shove a big draw, do you shove those hands too? I would regularly check the turn with those hands because I think we get paid off by a wider range on the river.

#45 Snamuh

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 10:23 AM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Thursday, August 28th, 2008, 2:01 PM, said:

People 4bet QQ+ FAR more often than AQ. Also, why would he raise the flop with AQ? We never fold anything better, and he just folds out anything worse.Thus far in this thread all you've said is "no, you're wrong, shove AINEC" without offering anything constructive. What do you see his range as being on the turn? How often do you think he will he fold to a turn shove?BTW, what do you do with AA, AK, AT, 99, etc on the turn? You shove a big draw, do you shove those hands too? I would regularly check the turn with those hands because I think we get paid off by a wider range on the river.
I don't 3bet AT. I rarely 3bet 99 but if I did, I'd certainly ship the turn with it. Sometimes I'd bet/check/bet AA/AK, but sometimes I will shove them also, depending on my perception of my opponent.There's also something you don't understand and it's part of the FPS that most uNL and SSNL players have. You do NOT need to range balance vs fish (I don't know whether this opponent is one) and vs most low level opponents. It doesn't matter what you'd do with the rest of your range. Just make the most +EV decision at any given time. I might check AA on the turn SOLELY because I felt like he wouldn't have a hand to call with often, and I'd rather give him one street of rope to do something stupid. The range balancing argument doesn't apply here (and it won't until you get to 200 NL+, and even at 200 NL it isn't super important).Simo, I see you do a lot of theoretical stuff, some of which I agree with, some of which I don't. Just put in hands and play poker and stop trying to put in high level thought into simple low stakes situations (90% of the micro stakes community would do better if they listened to this).
Snamuh raises to $76.75, and is all in
BigKamp: yyou lose
BigKamp has 15 seconds left to act
BigKamp calls $24.50, and is all in
Seat 1: BigKamp (small blind) mucked [Ad Ac] - a full house, Aces full of Kings
Seat 2: Snamuh (big blind) showed [Kd Kh] and won ($102.50) with four of a kind, Kings
Snamuh: you lose

#46 BaseJester

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 02:18 PM

View PostSnamuh, on Monday, August 25th, 2008, 8:09 PM, said:

I'd rather go with the more aggressive choice because even if it's slightly lower EV in the moment (which I don't believe it is), it's higher EV for overall gameplay because shoving the turn with hands like this will get you paid off with your other hands a lot easier.That's something you can't measure. If you get him to fold here, he's pretty much not going to fold a close decision next time (when you ideally have a stronger hand). It's how I get paid off in 3bet pots. Not every move needs to be +EV in the moment, but I guarantee it's more +EV for your session to shove turn here than to check/call.

View PostSnamuh, on Thursday, August 28th, 2008, 2:23 PM, said:

There's also something you don't understand and it's part of the FPS that most uNL and SSNL players have. You do NOT need to range balance vs fish (I don't know whether this opponent is one) and vs most low level opponents. It doesn't matter what you'd do with the rest of your range. Just make the most +EV decision at any given time.
You guys don't even read your own posts.
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#47 Snamuh

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 02:31 PM

View PostBaseJester, on Thursday, August 28th, 2008, 6:18 PM, said:

You guys don't even read your own posts.
What I said there doesn't contradict itself. So I don't understand the point you are trying to make, other than being some arrogant douchebag.It's responses like these why I stopped posting in these strat forums to begin with and why I'm probably going to stick to discussing strategy on 2p2.Edit: I don't post here for the benefit of myself. I came back to the strat forums at the request of other people, so I post here with advice on other people's games. I have my own set of contacts for specific hand questions. But it seems that you have a few douchebags like this guy that probably suck at poker (or at least be better if he gave more constructive responses) and give retarded responses like the one he gave here.
Snamuh raises to $76.75, and is all in
BigKamp: yyou lose
BigKamp has 15 seconds left to act
BigKamp calls $24.50, and is all in
Seat 1: BigKamp (small blind) mucked [Ad Ac] - a full house, Aces full of Kings
Seat 2: Snamuh (big blind) showed [Kd Kh] and won ($102.50) with four of a kind, Kings
Snamuh: you lose

#48 BaseJester

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 03:58 PM

View PostSnamuh, on Thursday, August 28th, 2008, 6:31 PM, said:

What I said there doesn't contradict itself. So I don't understand the point you are trying to make, other than being some arrogant douchebag.
I think you do understand the point, you're just choosing not to address it.Does the metagame matter at low stakes? You advocated pushing based partly on getting action on future hands. That's balancing your range, isn't it? I'm not just yanking your chain. Make your case. We'll read it with interest.
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#49 Snamuh

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 04:03 PM

View PostBaseJester, on Thursday, August 28th, 2008, 7:58 PM, said:

I think you do understand the point, you're just choosing not to address it.Does the metagame matter at low stakes? You advocated pushing based partly on getting action on future hands. That's balancing your range, isn't it? I'm not just yanking your chain. Make your case.
Metagame still matters. If you play back at someone enough, they WILL fight back and go out of their comfort zone, and they will inevitably make mistakes (this is one of the main ways that aggressive generates profits).RANGE BALANCING doesn't matter.What you said ISN'T range balancing. Seriously, learn your ****ing terms before making dumb comments. Range balancing is basically playing various parts of your range the same way. What Simo was saying was "if you play your draws this way, are you playing your big hands this way as well?" If you check/raise air on a A72 rainbow board, are you check raising a set on that board as well? That's what balancing your range is. Pushing and playing aggressively to get action on future hands is NOT range balancing.
Snamuh raises to $76.75, and is all in
BigKamp: yyou lose
BigKamp has 15 seconds left to act
BigKamp calls $24.50, and is all in
Seat 1: BigKamp (small blind) mucked [Ad Ac] - a full house, Aces full of Kings
Seat 2: Snamuh (big blind) showed [Kd Kh] and won ($102.50) with four of a kind, Kings
Snamuh: you lose

#50 simo_8ball

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 04:39 PM

View PostSnamuh, on Thursday, August 28th, 2008, 7:23 PM, said:

There's also something you don't understand and it's part of the FPS that most uNL and SSNL players have. You do NOT need to range balance vs fish (I don't know whether this opponent is one) and vs most low level opponents. It doesn't matter what you'd do with the rest of your range. Just make the most +EV decision at any given time.
I fully agree. My whole reason for posting this here was to find out how close the options are. I thought it was pretty close. I just wanted to confirm my intuition that felt saying "turn shove >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> check/call" was incorrect.FWIW, I've asked several people for figures (and the equations are as accurate as they need to be to give fairly correct answers), and only in the rather harsh example I gave was shove>c/c. Any independent figures have said c/c>shove. I think that should confirm that it is at least a close run thing.If you really don't think it is close, as you stated many times:"There's a huge difference" "I think check/calling the turn is really bad""Your logic of "He might bet $10, let us draw cheaply and then pay off the last ~$12" is pretty terrible""the times you get JJ-KK to fold, make a shove way better than a check/call""turn shove >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> check/call"Could you please at least indulge me by giving very rough % ranges to the following questions (even just "10%-30%" would be good):1) What % does he fold to a turn shove?2) What % does he check behind on the turn if checked to?3) What % does he bet something like $10 on the turn if checked to?4) What % does he shove the turn if checked to?5) What % does he call the river given that he checks behind on the turn?Thanks.

#51 BaseJester

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 05:49 PM

View PostSnamuh, on Thursday, August 28th, 2008, 1:49 PM, said:

He wants a new stove. The ranges presented in this thread are horribly skewed. We should expect AA/AK/AQ/KK/QQ to be 4betting a fair amount of the time preflop (ESPECIALLY AK more than any other hand in the range).
Do you think the results of another pokerstove run matter? It's going to be 2:1ish for us to hit one of 15 outs unless you think we have pair outs a lot. (And I think that's unreasonably optimistic.)
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#52 Snamuh

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 06:44 PM

View PostBaseJester, on Thursday, August 28th, 2008, 9:49 PM, said:

Do you think the results of another pokerstove run matter? It's going to be 2:1ish for us to hit one of 15 outs unless you think we have pair outs a lot. (And I think that's unreasonably optimistic.)
The stove itself doesn't matter so much. But I'd rather see a more accurate assumption of the range we are up against. Some hands need to be discounted, etc.
Snamuh raises to $76.75, and is all in
BigKamp: yyou lose
BigKamp has 15 seconds left to act
BigKamp calls $24.50, and is all in
Seat 1: BigKamp (small blind) mucked [Ad Ac] - a full house, Aces full of Kings
Seat 2: Snamuh (big blind) showed [Kd Kh] and won ($102.50) with four of a kind, Kings
Snamuh: you lose

#53 David_Nicoson

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 09:32 PM

View PostSnamuh, on Thursday, August 28th, 2008, 10:44 PM, said:

The stove itself doesn't matter so much. But I'd rather see a more accurate assumption of the range we are up against. Some hands need to be discounted, etc.
Fill out the C and D columns in the attached spreadsheet. The bottom right number is the chance that the villain calls on the turn. I get 73%.
AA	3	0.25	0.60	0.4500	0.0287	1.00	0.0287AK	12	0.15	0.60	1.0800	0.0688	0.99	0.0682AQ	12	0.25	0.75	2.2500	0.1434	0.98	0.1405AJ	12	0.25	0.80	2.4000	0.1530	0.95	0.1453AT	9	0.20	0.80	1.4400	0.0918	1.00	0.0918KQs	4	0.40	0.03	0.0480	0.0031	0.01	0.0000T9s	2	0.30	0.20	0.1200	0.0076	0.95	0.0073KK	6	0.15	0.50	0.4500	0.0287	0.25	0.0072QQ	6	0.50	0.40	1.2000	0.0765	0.20	0.0153JJ	3	0.60	0.40	0.7200	0.0459	0.10	0.0046TT	3	0.70	0.30	0.6300	0.0402	1.00	0.040299	3	0.75	0.65	1.4625	0.0932	1.00	0.093288	6	0.75	0.10	0.4500	0.0287	0.02	0.000677	6	0.75	0.08	0.3600	0.0229	0.02	0.000566	6	0.75	0.08	0.3600	0.0229	0.02	0.000555	6	0.70	0.08	0.3360	0.0214	0.02	0.000444	6	0.70	0.07	0.2940	0.0187	0.02	0.000433	3	0.70	0.65	1.3650	0.0870	1.00	0.087022	6	0.65	0.07	0.2730	0.0174	0.00	0.0000Totals:	114			15.6885	1.0000		0.7315

Attached Files


QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
I'm invincible. Like Super Mario when he gets that star thingy.


#54 David_Nicoson

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Posted 28 August 2008 - 09:35 PM

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Friday, August 29th, 2008, 1:32 AM, said:

I get 73%.
It tilts me that I got pretty much the same result as pulling a number out of my ass.
QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
I'm invincible. Like Super Mario when he gets that star thingy.


#55 simo_8ball

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Posted 29 August 2008 - 12:25 AM

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Friday, August 29th, 2008, 6:35 AM, said:

It tilts me that I got pretty much the same result as pulling a number out of my ass.
Rephrased: My intuition is pretty accurate.

#56 David_Nicoson

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 01:59 PM

The attachment's really there now for anybody motivated to run their own numbers.
QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
I'm invincible. Like Super Mario when he gets that star thingy.


#57 Acid_Knight

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 02:08 PM

View PostSnamuh, on Monday, August 25th, 2008, 5:09 PM, said:

To be honest Simo, I don't spend time doing these complex calculations. I go with my intuition. And in a spot like this, if the decisions are close, I'd rather go with the more aggressive choice because even if it's slightly lower EV in the moment (which I don't believe it is), it's higher EV for overall gameplay because shoving the turn with hands like this will get you paid off with your other hands a lot easier.That's something you can't measure. If you get him to fold here, he's pretty much not going to fold a close decision next time (when you ideally have a stronger hand). It's how I get paid off in 3bet pots. Not every move needs to be +EV in the moment, but I guarantee it's more +EV for your session to shove turn here than to check/call.
I've only kind of blazed through this thread and I've read very little of the in-depth math analysis because the gist of it is that it's a close decision. When things are close, I go with aggression just like Snamuh said here. If you're not folding, there's zero reasons why you shouldn't be shoving here. It's not like we can trick him into making a bigger mistake by checking since we have J high. If we had a pair and a draw, I wouldn't mind c/cing, but just because we have the odds to draw vs him, doesn't mean we want to. I just shove my stack in there and hope he folds his pair, unless it's a pair of aces, because nobody folds those. I'm gonna read the 2nd page of this thread now.

#58 Acid_Knight

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 02:14 PM

I'd also like to throw this out there:We have J high. We beat no hands. His range however does include lots of hands that will likely fold to a turn shove. His range also includes hands better than ours, such as flush draws higher than Jx, which will bluff shove the turn. The only argument for not shoving the turn imo is that he'll have a weaker hand often enough where he checks behind and gives us a free shot at the draw, but the thing is that in those cases, he folds to the turn shove almost always anyway and we win the pot by default. With no showdown value at this point, there does not appear to be a good argument that can be made for not shoving the turn if we're never going to fold.

#59 simo_8ball

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 03:30 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Saturday, August 30th, 2008, 11:14 PM, said:

Care to give some %s?That's all I want. I just want someone to give their concept of %s that show shoving is better.

#60 psujohn

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Posted 30 August 2008 - 05:29 PM

I don't get all the discussion on this hand. Seems pretty obvious to me.If we get it all in we have neutral EV.We have (considerable) fold equity.Shove.Profit = FE * Pot size.What's left to discuss?




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