Ok, this was posted in the Challenge thread, and obviously it's hard to get an 'on track' discussion there so I've reposted it here.
FARGOpokerND, on Friday, August 22nd, 2008, 12:05 PM, said:
One more hand, I'd like thoughts on all streets... Villain is 27/22 over 50 handsPokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars
Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($60.10)BB ($95.80)UTG ($59.15)MP ($31.70)CO ($42.70)Button ($35.40)Preflop
: Hero is SB with J
, Button raises to $1.50
, Hero raises to $5.00
, 1 fold
, Button calls $3.50Flop
: ($10.50) 3
A (2 players)Hero bets $8.25
, Button calls $8.25Turn
: ($27.00) 10 (2 players)
Hero...(Villain has $22.15 left)
simo_8ball, on Friday, August 22nd, 2008, 12:19 PM, said:
I think 3betting to $5 is a touch small. I'd prefer $5.5 or $6.C/betting the flop is standard.I think I might prefer c/c the turn. Not a vast difference though.
Snamuh, on Friday, August 22nd, 2008, 12:25 PM, said:
There's a huge difference imo. Shoving turn folds out JJ-KK, which may call one barrel after flatting in position (not everyone 4bets JJ+ in position preflop - I know I don't). I think check/calling the turn is really bad to be honest (you don't even have odds I think). You also give him a chance to fold out bad aces that he may have defended.Edit: Just noticed stack size on villain. I probably fold preflop with that stack size (and if you do 3bet, make it a little bigger), but postflop is standard imo.
simo_8ball, on Friday, August 22nd, 2008, 1:00 PM, said:
I don't see him folding many aces to the turn shove. He isn't folding AK/AQ/AT/A9, so you're hoping he folds AJ (maybe occasionally a lower suited ace) or he has JJ-QQ (maybe occasionally KK).If we check, he might check behind with an ace, and allow us to draw for free. He might bet $10, let us draw cheaply and then pay off the last ~$12.It's closer than you think.
Snamuh, on Friday, August 22nd, 2008, 10:49 PM, said:
Going back to this hand, which was diverted by a lot of retarded spam....How can you rather check/call here than shove on the turn. Your logic of "He might bet $10, let us draw cheaply and then pay off the last ~$12" is pretty terrible imo. First off, I don't like 3betting this to begin with because you don't have a ton of fold equity vs this stack size. If you check the turn and he shoves (which he will do often I believe), you don't have the odds to call. However, the times you get JJ-KK to fold, make a shove way better than a check/call. If he folds like A-rag suited, it's even more profitable.The main mistake here is 3betting here with a speculative hand vs an awkward stack. If he is actually a decent 27/22 player, then you have more fold equity and a turn shove >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> check/call. If he's a donkish player with an awkward stack, a shove is still better, but you are going to get called a lot more.
I really want to get into this discussion (and I think I can come up with an equation to get some real numbers on this), but I won't have time until tomorrow afternoon/evening.Against a hand that won't fold, check calling is obviously better (because sometimes we draw for free). It is at worst break even if he shoves every time.Against a hand that will fold, shoving is obviously better.It's a case of work out how often he needs to fold compared to how often he needs to check behind, or at least not shove. I personally don't think we have too much fold equity, and villain's range is centred around AT or better.I just think it will work out to be pretty close overall (plus it balances the times I would check AK/AA/etc here).Discuss...