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Big Draw On The Turn


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#1 simo_8ball

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Posted 22 August 2008 - 03:01 PM

Ok, this was posted in the Challenge thread, and obviously it's hard to get an 'on track' discussion there so I've reposted it here.

View PostFARGOpokerND, on Friday, August 22nd, 2008, 12:05 PM, said:

One more hand, I'd like thoughts on all streets... Villain is 27/22 over 50 handsPokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.comHero (SB) ($60.10)BB ($95.80)UTG ($59.15)MP ($31.70)CO ($42.70)Button ($35.40)Preflop: Hero is SB with JPosted Image 8Posted Image3 folds, Button raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5.00, 1 fold, Button calls $3.50Flop: ($10.50) 3Posted Image 9Posted Image APosted Image (2 players)Hero bets $8.25, Button calls $8.25Turn: ($27.00) 10Posted Image (2 players)Hero...(Villain has $22.15 left)

View Postsimo_8ball, on Friday, August 22nd, 2008, 12:19 PM, said:

I think 3betting to $5 is a touch small. I'd prefer $5.5 or $6.C/betting the flop is standard.I think I might prefer c/c the turn. Not a vast difference though.

View PostSnamuh, on Friday, August 22nd, 2008, 12:25 PM, said:

There's a huge difference imo. Shoving turn folds out JJ-KK, which may call one barrel after flatting in position (not everyone 4bets JJ+ in position preflop - I know I don't). I think check/calling the turn is really bad to be honest (you don't even have odds I think). You also give him a chance to fold out bad aces that he may have defended.Edit: Just noticed stack size on villain. I probably fold preflop with that stack size (and if you do 3bet, make it a little bigger), but postflop is standard imo.

View Postsimo_8ball, on Friday, August 22nd, 2008, 1:00 PM, said:

I don't see him folding many aces to the turn shove. He isn't folding AK/AQ/AT/A9, so you're hoping he folds AJ (maybe occasionally a lower suited ace) or he has JJ-QQ (maybe occasionally KK).If we check, he might check behind with an ace, and allow us to draw for free. He might bet $10, let us draw cheaply and then pay off the last ~$12.It's closer than you think.

View PostSnamuh, on Friday, August 22nd, 2008, 10:49 PM, said:

Going back to this hand, which was diverted by a lot of retarded spam....How can you rather check/call here than shove on the turn. Your logic of "He might bet $10, let us draw cheaply and then pay off the last ~$12" is pretty terrible imo. First off, I don't like 3betting this to begin with because you don't have a ton of fold equity vs this stack size. If you check the turn and he shoves (which he will do often I believe), you don't have the odds to call. However, the times you get JJ-KK to fold, make a shove way better than a check/call. If he folds like A-rag suited, it's even more profitable.The main mistake here is 3betting here with a speculative hand vs an awkward stack. If he is actually a decent 27/22 player, then you have more fold equity and a turn shove >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> check/call. If he's a donkish player with an awkward stack, a shove is still better, but you are going to get called a lot more.
I really want to get into this discussion (and I think I can come up with an equation to get some real numbers on this), but I won't have time until tomorrow afternoon/evening.Against a hand that won't fold, check calling is obviously better (because sometimes we draw for free). It is at worst break even if he shoves every time.Against a hand that will fold, shoving is obviously better.It's a case of work out how often he needs to fold compared to how often he needs to check behind, or at least not shove. I personally don't think we have too much fold equity, and villain's range is centred around AT or better.I just think it will work out to be pretty close overall (plus it balances the times I would check AK/AA/etc here).Discuss...

#2 tskillz187

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Posted 22 August 2008 - 05:44 PM

I think betting turn is better by a large margin.
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#3 Dictius

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Posted 22 August 2008 - 07:17 PM

I think I'm not 3 betting a 70BB stack oop with J8s.

#4 SCS

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Posted 22 August 2008 - 07:18 PM

Easy fold preflop, but if you do play it, turn is an easy shove imo. For reasons stated by Snamuh.

#5 Moneyball16

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Posted 22 August 2008 - 07:23 PM

Why does preflop become a fold against a 70bb stack compared to a 3-bet against a 100bb stack? Also are there hands you guys would 3-bet a 70bb stack here with that you wouldn't do to a 100bb stack?I guess I just don't see the big difference preflop between button having 70bb or 100bb.As played im fine with preflop and would shove the turn because the times we would have to c/c a shove on the turn sucks so much compared to shoving.

#6 NoBBiR

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Posted 22 August 2008 - 07:28 PM

Yeah I think I would shove. Even if he never folds AT+, the times he folds dumb suited aces and JJ-KK make it necessary imo.I really don't think anyone calls that flop with the intention of checking behind if checked to on the turn with basically no money left.
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#7 simo_8ball

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 07:00 AM

Ok, I'd like opinions on the following (either one figure, or a rough range "X%-Y%"):1) What % does he fold to a turn shove?2) What % does he check behind on the turn if checked to?3) What % does he bet something like $10 on the turn if checked to?4) What % does he shove the turn if checked to?5) What % does he call the river given that he checks behind on the turn?(Q2-Q4 are pretty awkward to define, but just rough ranges, even if just '10%-40%' are better than nothing)I know these are difficult to really define, but I'd like to some kind of a rough consensus before I create some value ranges for the two lines (and I don't want to use any figures of my own that I could manipulate). Really, 1 and 2 are the ones I'm particularly interested in.Thanks.

#8 tskillz187

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 07:21 AM

I don't think I can come up with % range that he'll fold. I'd rather give you the hand range and put a % on it, cuz I think it'll be closer to accurate.1. Villain folds JJ-KK 95%, folds AX 10%, folds everything else that isn't a set 100%2. Villain checks behind with JJ-KK 85%, checks back with AX 15%, checks with everything that isn't a set 5%3. Villain bets $10 with JJ-KK 2%, bets $10 with Ax 10%, 0% with all his bluffs, but possibly like 35% with his sets.4. Villain shoves with JJ-KK 5%, shoves with Ax 70%, 90% everything that isn't a set (bluffs), shoves set like 60%5. A river shove? I think you might fold out JJ-KK 90% there, but get calls from Ax hands 95%, 0% bluffs, 100% sets.
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#9 Sheiky

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 08:44 AM

View PostMoneyball16, on Saturday, August 23rd, 2008, 4:23 AM, said:

Why does preflop become a fold against a 70bb stack compared to a 3-bet against a 100bb stack? Also are there hands you guys would 3-bet a 70bb stack here with that you wouldn't do to a 100bb stack?I guess I just don't see the big difference preflop between button having 70bb or 100bb.As played im fine with preflop and would shove the turn because the times we would have to c/c a shove on the turn sucks so much compared to shoving.
A few reasons:- A player with a 70BB stack playing 27/22 is likely to be a poor one and is going to call our re-raise a lot wider than a better/tighter player would do, he's generaly going to be calling C-bets more often as well so we should weight our 3-betting range almost entirely for value. - Suited junk like J8s generally has more value when the stacks are deeper because it's not going to flop a good hand very often, so when it does you want to be able to win a big pot with it. - 70BBs isn't quite there yet, but much lower and it's going to make the button stack of a lot lighter and make a lot of plays on flops because it's relatively cheap for him to do so. Say if he has 40 BBs, he calls our 3-bet to 11BBs, he can shove over any flop bet with a very wide range and show a profit if we're 3-betting as wide as J8s. I know you probably know that already, so what I would say is that him being 70BBs deep does effect this is some way.- If you wanted to pull a big bluff, you have less room to do so with the stacks, and also a lot less of an implied threat because he doesn't have to face playing a 200BB pot with TPWK or something.It may just be an intuition thing, but I think it does make a difference.

#10 Snamuh

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 09:31 AM

View PostSheiky, on Saturday, August 23rd, 2008, 12:44 PM, said:

A few reasons:- A player with a 70BB stack playing 27/22 is likely to be a poor one and is going to call our re-raise a lot wider than a better/tighter player would do, he's generaly going to be calling C-bets more often as well so we should weight our 3-betting range almost entirely for value. - Suited junk like J8s generally has more value when the stacks are deeper because it's not going to flop a good hand very often, so when it does you want to be able to win a big pot with it. - 70BBs isn't quite there yet, but much lower and it's going to make the button stack of a lot lighter and make a lot of plays on flops because it's relatively cheap for him to do so. Say if he has 40 BBs, he calls our 3-bet to 11BBs, he can shove over any flop bet with a very wide range and show a profit if we're 3-betting as wide as J8s. I know you probably know that already, so what I would say is that him being 70BBs deep does effect this is some way.- If you wanted to pull a big bluff, you have less room to do so with the stacks, and also a lot less of an implied threat because he doesn't have to face playing a 200BB pot with TPWK or something.It may just be an intuition thing, but I think it does make a difference.
All of this. Mainly point 1, but the rest factors in.
Snamuh raises to $76.75, and is all in
BigKamp: yyou lose
BigKamp has 15 seconds left to act
BigKamp calls $24.50, and is all in
Seat 1: BigKamp (small blind) mucked [Ad Ac] - a full house, Aces full of Kings
Seat 2: Snamuh (big blind) showed [Kd Kh] and won ($102.50) with four of a kind, Kings
Snamuh: you lose

#11 David_Nicoson

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 01:52 PM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Saturday, August 23rd, 2008, 11:00 AM, said:

Ok, I'd like opinions on the following (either one figure, or a rough range "X%-Y%"):1) What % does he fold to a turn shove? 25%2) What % does he check behind on the turn if checked to? 25%3) What % does he bet something like $10 on the turn if checked to? 25%4) What % does he shove the turn if checked to? 50%5) What % does he call the river given that he checks behind on the turn? 85%(Q2-Q4 are pretty awkward to define, but just rough ranges, even if just '10%-40%' are better than nothing)I know these are difficult to really define, but I'd like to some kind of a rough consensus before I create some value ranges for the two lines (and I don't want to use any figures of my own that I could manipulate). Really, 1 and 2 are the ones I'm particularly interested in.Thanks.

QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
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#12 David_Nicoson

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 01:55 PM

My gut says bet it.If the villain has an ace with a good kicker (or better hand) he usually bets the turn. For these hands it's irrelevant if we bet or check/call.If the villain has an ace with a poor kicker, he may check the turn but he also folds to our bet frequently enough that we prefer it.
QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
I'm invincible. Like Super Mario when he gets that star thingy.


#13 simo_8ball

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 02:06 PM

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Saturday, August 23rd, 2008, 10:55 PM, said:

My gut says bet it.If the villain has an ace with a good kicker (or better hand) he usually bets the turn. For these hands it's irrelevant if we bet or check/call.If the villain has an ace with a poor kicker, he may check the turn but he also folds to our bet frequently enough that we prefer it.
FWIW, the equation for shoving is pretty damn simple given that when called it's basically 0EV. It's just Fold Equity%x $27.If you think he folds 25% then our equity from shoving is ~$6.75.It's the check/calling that's more tricky because you need to take into account bet sizing and river payoff percentages. I have the equation sorted, I just want to play round with some figures and get some results before posting.

#14 Snamuh

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 02:15 PM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Saturday, August 23rd, 2008, 6:06 PM, said:

FWIW, the equation for shoving is pretty damn simple given that when called it's basically 0EV. It's just Fold Equity%x $27.If you think he folds 25% then our equity from shoving is ~$6.75.It's the check/calling that's more tricky because you need to take into account bet sizing and river payoff percentages. I have the equation sorted, I just want to play round with some figures and get some results before posting.
What if he were to shove something that he would have folded had we shoved? It sounds far-fetched but he may decide that we'd never check a worse hand on the turn, therefore he could potentially shove A-rag to protect against draws, whereas if we double barrel turn, he may decide he's beaten and fold. There's really no way you can account for situations like this.
Snamuh raises to $76.75, and is all in
BigKamp: yyou lose
BigKamp has 15 seconds left to act
BigKamp calls $24.50, and is all in
Seat 1: BigKamp (small blind) mucked [Ad Ac] - a full house, Aces full of Kings
Seat 2: Snamuh (big blind) showed [Kd Kh] and won ($102.50) with four of a kind, Kings
Snamuh: you lose

#15 David_Nicoson

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 02:37 PM

View PostSnamuh, on Saturday, August 23rd, 2008, 6:15 PM, said:

What if he were to shove something that he would have folded had we shoved? It sounds far-fetched but he may decide that we'd never check a worse hand on the turn, therefore he could potentially shove A-rag to protect against draws, whereas if we double barrel turn, he may decide he's beaten and fold. There's really no way you can account for situations like this.
I think we could account for that possibility; however, the villain is going to put us on hands like JJ-KK. There's no reason for him to suspect that we picked up a big draw on the turn.
QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
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#16 simo_8ball

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 02:37 PM

View PostSnamuh, on Saturday, August 23rd, 2008, 11:15 PM, said:

What if he were to shove something that he would have folded had we shoved? It sounds far-fetched but he may decide that we'd never check a worse hand on the turn, therefore he could potentially shove A-rag to protect against draws, whereas if we double barrel turn, he may decide he's beaten and fold. There's really no way you can account for situations like this.
Yes there is. The two calculations are totally independent and allow for this.

#17 simo_8ball

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 02:51 PM

IGNORE THIS LOAD OF IDIOCY.If you see any errors, please correct them. I want this to be accurate. This post includes the text from the notepad file I used, so it's probably fairly rough and hard to read. I do apologise for that. BTW I used 32% as our equity on the turn against his various ranges, which I think should be close enough in most cases to use as a constant.Shove+fold = +27Shove+call = 71 x .32 = 0Check through and miss river = 0Check through+paid off = +49Check through+not paid off = +27(assume he always pays off river after he bets turn)C/c bet of $Z and miss = -$ZC/c $Z and hit = +$49C/c $Z overall = .32x49 - .68xZFor a $10 bet, that is 15.68 - 6.8 = +$8.9P(Fold)P(Check)P(Pay Off)Shoving:P(Fold) x $27 = EquityChecking (ignoring the chance of say a $10 bet):club:(check) x [ P(Payoff)x$49 + (1 - P(Payoff))x$27 ]P(check) x [ P(Payoff)x$49 + 27 - P(Payoff)x$27 ]P(check) x [ P(Payoff)x($49-$27) + 27 ]P(check) x [ P(Payoff)x$22 + $27 ] = equityif this was correct, if he paid off 100% of the time this would be +$49. It isn't, because we only hit 32% of the time. It's +$15.7.Correct equation is P(check) x [ P(Payoff)x$22 + $27 ] x 0.32 = equityChecking (including $10 bet probability):ts(check)x(value from check) + P($10 bet)x(value from $10 bet)P(check) x [ P(Payoff)x$22 + $27 ] x .32 + P($10 bet) x $8.9 = Equity.Ok, using David's numbers:Shoving gives $6.75.Checking gives:.25 x [ (.85 x 22) + 27 ] x .32 + .25 x $8.9= $3.656 + $2.225 = $5.88.So if David's numbers are accurate, checking is twice as good as shoving. I wasn't expecting that tbh. Ya, it's actually pretty close, but shoving is betterOk, going for pretty much a worst case option for checking, and quite good for shoving:Suppose it's 30% fold equity from a shove, When checked to, villain will check behind 10%, bet $10 10% of the time, and shove 80%. He will pay off a river shove 50% of the time when he checks behind and 100% of the time when he bets $10.Then it's $8.1 from shoving, andP(check) x [ P(Payoff)x$22 + $27 ] x 0.32 + P($10 bet) x $8.9 = Equity.1 x (.5x22 + 27) x .32 + .1 x $8.9 = $1.22 + $0.89 = $2.1.In this case we gain $6.8 by shoving (rounded).Feel free to come up with your own numbers to see what the result is. This are rounded results based on pure guesswork though, so they aren't massively reliable. I think they are good enough to give a reasonable indication though. I think it's going to be very relatively close for most reasonable ranges.

#18 simo_8ball

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 03:21 PM

Fuck.I've seen a tiny little mistake.edit: I think.edit2: yep, it's pretty big one actually.

#19 David_Nicoson

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 03:27 PM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Saturday, August 23rd, 2008, 6:51 PM, said:

If you see any errors, please correct them. I want this to be accurate. This post includes the text from the notepad file I used, so it's probably fairly rough and hard to read. I do apologise for that. BTW I used 32% as our equity on the turn against his various ranges, which I think should be close enough in most cases to use as a constant.Shove+fold = +27Shove+call = 71 x .32 = 0
There's some fuzz in my mind as to what EV=0 means.
QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
I'm invincible. Like Super Mario when he gets that star thingy.


#20 simo_8ball

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Posted 23 August 2008 - 03:33 PM

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Sunday, August 24th, 2008, 12:27 AM, said:

There's some fuzz in my mind as to what EV=0 means.
If we shove and get called, we don't really gain or lose much either way. We shove $22, and we get 32% of a 71 pot in return = 22.72.




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