19 replies to this topic

[simo_8ball]

Villain is 16/14/1, with 27% steals over 100 hands. He hasn't played any pots of more than like $4 until now, so absolutely no read. I'm probably at about 28/23/3, but could be anywhere from 20/17 to 35/30. Not sure what my image will be.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $53.20
UTG+1: $50
CO: $20.50
Button: $51.50
SB: $82.85
Hero: $86.55

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with A J
3 folds, Button raises to $1.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $6, Button calls.

Flop: J 8 5 ($12.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $9, Button calls.

Turn: 3 ($30.25, 2 players)
Hero makes a plan...



Villain has $36 left.

My thoughts are that hands like 99/TT, or any random floats fold to a turn bet, as do some hands like JT or J9 if he has called the 3bet with a hand like that. Also, a lot of his worse one pair hands and draws check behind the turn so I would be giving a free card. Oh, and if he has a better hand, I assume I'm going broke.

The question is, do I go for full value on all streets, or do I wait for the river to try and get a second bet in? It's easier for him to call a river bet than a turn bet with a weakish hand.

[Sheiky]

I think you can just bet bet bet here and hope he doesn't realise that if he calls the turn he's basically going to have to call the river with any made hand.

If you bet $20 on the turn, and he calls, there's going to be $70 in the pot and you're going to shove for $16 more, or he just sighs and shoves over your turn bet out of desperation. Checking lets him check behind worse jacks/9T/67 which I think is probably a bigger part of his range than pockets nines/tens.

[LJB723]

This has to be a worse J or 9T. I'd charge both to see a river. KJ/QJ is paying you off on almost an river, especially if the board pairs.

[da_suit]

I like your orginal read of 10's/9's maybe he has AQ/AK and as you said will fold to a turn bet. I think you go for value on all streets here. I think your ahead enough of the time to make that the right play.

[mtdesmoines]

Villain is 16/14/1, with 27% steals over 100 hands. He hasn't played any pots of more than like $4 until now, so absolutely no read. I'm probably at about 28/23/3, but could be anywhere from 20/17 to 35/30. Not sure what my image will be.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $53.20
UTG+1: $50
CO: $20.50
Button: $51.50
SB: $82.85
Hero: $86.55

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with A J
3 folds, Button raises to $1.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $6, Button calls.

Flop: J 8 5 ($12.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $9, Button calls.

Turn: 3 ($30.25, 2 players)
Hero makes a plan...
Villain has $36 left.

My thoughts are that hands like 99/TT, or any random floats fold to a turn bet, as do some hands like JT or J9 if he has called the 3bet with a hand like that. Also, a lot of his worse one pair hands and draws check behind the turn so I would be giving a free card. Oh, and if he has a better hand, I assume I'm going broke.

The question is, do I go for full value on all streets, or do I wait for the river to try and get a second bet in? It's easier for him to call a river bet than a turn bet with a weakish hand.

I think you're really optimistic about his 3-bet range here. If you plan to go broke, just shove the turn -- if he potted the flop, he'll essentially pot the turn, too, unless he's floating AK AQ.

[simo_8ball]

I think you're really optimistic about his 3-bet range here. If you plan to go broke, just shove the turn -- if he potted the flop, he'll essentially pot the turn, too, unless he's floating AK AQ.

I think you may be reading the HH wrong.

He didn't 3bet. He didn't pot the flop.

[mtdesmoines]

I think you may be reading the HH wrong.

He didn't 3bet. He didn't pot the flop.

Whoops. My bad. I misrepresented what I meant to say. I think your odds of getting trapped here are pretty high.

QUOTE(Acid_Knight)
"Once someone starts calling bets, the odds that they're bluffing drop dramatically."

[simo_8ball]

Whoops. My bad. I misrepresented what I meant to say. I think your odds of getting trapped here are pretty high.

QUOTE(Acid_Knight)
"Once someone starts calling bets, the odds that they're bluffing drop dramatically."

Yeah, I think a float is a very small% of his range.

The problem is, what is his range? You say that the odds of being trapped are high. Do you check/fold then? Flat call preflop? Bet/fold?

What is your line?

[KingJames]

we see a worse J here more than AA KK QQ so I don't think we're being trapped

I shove this turn because any value bet he'll call committs him... so betting 20 or 24 will get it all in so just shove

I think 99 and TT are in villain's 3bet range and will see a shove in this situation as a steal

[mtdesmoines]

Yeah, I think a float is a very small% of his range.

The problem is, what is his range? You say that the odds of being trapped are high. Do you check/fold then? Flat call preflop? Bet/fold?

What is your line?

EGGZACTLY. I think this hand is a trap hand for you. I think when my PF raise got called, when my flop bet got called, and I've been herding this hand toward all in and the villain's been happily coming along with me, I start to smell a rat. He's playing it precisely like QQ.

All that having been said, if you already committed to going broke if villain is ahead, then shove the turn.

[simo_8ball]

EGGZACTLY. I think this hand is a trap hand for you. I think when my PF raise got called, when my flop bet got called, and I've been herding this hand toward all in and the villain's been happily coming along with me, I start to smell a rat. He's playing it precisely like QQ.

All that having been said, if you already committed to going broke if villain is ahead, then shove the turn.

So....

What is your line?

If your line is check/fold, does that mean you don't c/bet the flop?

[mtdesmoines]

So....

What is your line?

If your line is check/fold, does that mean you don't c/bet the flop?

Yeah, the problem is AJ played 12 BB PF OOP, "hasn't played any pots of more than like $4 until now." When we flop the J, we have to start playing the hand as if we're ahead, but really I believe that the villain's range is still ahead of us ... I'm guessing better than 60% of the time. The flat call on the flop gives me the creeps. Add to that the fact that we've got the villain so invested in the hand already we're not folding his QQ by shoving into him. Worse, if we've been loose, he might shove if we slow down, thinking we have air and he can fold us with his TT or whatever.

So our choices are:

shove -- we only get called if we're beat
check -- clearly invites villain to shove
keep betting -- and hope villain holds .... ?

What is it, exactly that we hope he has again? TT? 99? I think that's pretty optimistic.

[Acid_Knight]

If he's aggro enough to bet a draw or float you, then I like a CRAI on the turn for a number of reasons including the facts that it could set up later bluffs and also give you more free cards in the future.

I wouldn't be looking to fold how this played out.

[simo_8ball]

Yeah, the problem is AJ played 12 BB PF OOP

So, you call preflop? Fold?

I'm just trying to get an idea of what you would actually do. What would your actions be from start to finish?

[Scott3705]

If he's reasonably aggressive, I C/R the turn considering most of the hands that you're looking to get value from are going to be forced into betting to protect their hand against overs. I don't seem him coming up here with 910 alot. If he raised called a 3-bet, he's usually going to be the type to get 'em all in on this flop, so he's either hoping his one pair is going to hold up or he's got AA or a set in which case, I think you just live with it cause I think you have to play it this aggressively.

[No_Neck]

I don't really think your hand has much value TBH you haven't seen this guy play a pot over $4 in 100 hands there is no way you are good here.

Also nits have to slowplay so they can get action IMO.

[mtdesmoines]

So, you call preflop? Fold?
I'm just trying to get an idea of what you would actually do. What would your actions be from start to finish?

I don't know. Prob flat the PF raise from the button with AJ -- it's just a trouble hand. And flatting PF makes this hand so much smaller and more palatable to play. But I guess you've got the fact that the PF raise came from the button going in your favor. In general I try not to play big pots with TPTK with people I've not seen play big pots yet. Flatting PF makes this a $25 pot by the river and not an all in situation. The other thing is if he's playing TT 99, then he's prob not afraid of the J ... he's more looking out for an A, K, or Q.

If he's reasonably aggressive, I C/R the turn considering most of the hands that you're looking to get value from are going to be forced into betting to protect their hand against overs. I don't seem him coming up here with 910 alot. If he raised called a 3-bet, he's usually going to be the type to get 'em all in on this flop, so he's either hoping his one pair is going to hold up or he's got AA or a set in which case, I think you just live with it cause I think you have to play it this aggressively.

I don't really think your hand has much value TBH you haven't seen this guy play a pot over $4 in 100 hands there is no way you are good here.Also nits have to slowplay so they can get action IMO.

Yeah, the irony of nits. They sit and wait and when they get their hand, they still have to wait for someone else to play it for them.

[simo_8ball]

Interesting mix of responses actually. No consensus.


Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with A J
3 folds, Button raises to $1.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $6, Button calls.

Flop: J 8 5 ($12.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $9, Button calls.

Turn: 3 ($30.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks,

River: 2 ($30.25, 2 players)
Hero...

(villain has $36 left)

[No_Neck]

Interesting mix of responses actually. No consensus.
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with A J
3 folds, Button raises to $1.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $6, Button calls.

Flop: J 8 5 ($12.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $9, Button calls.

Turn: 3 ($30.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks,

River: 2 ($30.25, 2 players)
Hero...

(villain has $36 left)

Bet fold for $10ish or check call for no more than $15.

I am a showdown monkey though

[whatgreatis]

Interesting mix of responses actually. No consensus.
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with A J
3 folds, Button raises to $1.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $6, Button calls.

Flop: J 8 5 ($12.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $9, Button calls.

Turn: 3 ($30.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks,

River: 2 ($30.25, 2 players)
Hero...

(villain has $36 left)

I loved how you played the hand so far. I would have gone for a check/raise on the turn. I commonly take this line OOP in 3bet pots.
When he checks the turn he's either taking a free card with a draw or he wants a cheap showdown with a small pocket pair or maybe an 8. I would bet for value, make a bet of $17 and stack off if he shoves (which I don't expect him to do often).