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can i fold here? [ps 2/4]


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#1 Absolute

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 07:14 AM

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converterPreflop: Hero is CO with [Qc], [Kd]. 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.Flop: (9.50 SB) [Qh], [7h], [2c] (4 players)UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 bets, MP3 folds, Hero calls.Turn: (8.25 BB) [5c] (2 players)UTG+2 bets, Hero calls.Should I fold here?River: (10.25 BB) [8s] (2 players)UTG+2 bets, Hero calls.Or here?Final Pot: 12.25 BB
i saw him at the riverbank. he was breaking bread and giving thanks. with crosses made of pipes and planks. leaned up against the nitrous tanks.
he said take a hit. hold your breath and i'll dunk your head. then when you wake up, you'll be high as hell and born again.

- The Hold Steady

#2 Vade

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 07:18 AM

Man, this is a tough spot.UTG+2 strikes me as slowplaying something, and anything that he's slowplaying probably has you crushedSet of 7's, set of 2's, AQ, KK, AA are all standing out as possible. I can't really rule any of those out except for maybe AQ as I doubt he'd check-three bet that...I think you should...fold the turn I guess...and go down kicking and screaming. This hand seriously blows :?
Last night I stayed up late playing poker with Tarot cards. I got a full house and four people died.

#3 dmateja

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 07:31 AM

You have top pair with a good kicker. I think you have to see it through to the river for a couple of reasons. One is pot odds. You are getting 9-1 on the turn and 11-1 on the river. That means you have to be 90% sure you are beat on the turn to justify folding. On the river it's 93% sure. If he is bluffing just 1 out of 10 times with this you make a profit by calling him down all 10 times. Second reason is you want to see what he check-raised you with. This will be valuable information for future hands. It will be well worth the extra 2 bets in this hand to get a bit of a read on his play for later.

#4 Swift_Psycho

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 07:32 AM

Any read on the player?

#5 StaleOne

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 07:32 AM

It is a tough spot. Personally, I would play it the same way you did. Getting off top pair with more than likely the best kicker is tough. Assuming he's a standard player, I wouldn't put him on AA,KK or QQ. My gut is telling me he flopped his set or two pair based on the fact that he raised the PF raiser, but without having a read on their plays, I would assume that I have the best hand and go down swinging.

#6 Vade

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 07:35 AM

I just want to point again at the check-3 bet. Not all that common of a play in hands posted here. UTG+2 is way ahead at this point. Or is a moron with a flush draw, but that's not all that likely :D
Last night I stayed up late playing poker with Tarot cards. I got a full house and four people died.

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 07:36 AM

I don't think you can fold this hand...period.Does it look like a slowplay? Sure it does. Are you probably behind? Yes.You're getting 9.something-to-1 that he's not on a flush draw, and you know if he's on a flush draw, you're not beat since he can't have top pair with it. If he's on Q-7 you have 3 outs, but limping/calling 2 bets with Q7 UTG+2 is kinda crazy. You'd know better than me if he's capable of that great play though. If he's on Q-2, you're not in bad shape. 6 outs on the turn, 10 on the river...that more than justifies a call since you could very well be ahead.He's most likely not on AA or KK....if he is, well, I think you have to pay him off here. He's probably not overplaying JJ or TT, since he didn't overplay it preflop. He more than likely made a set, hit top pair in some way, or is on a flush draw. I think that range of hands means you call him down.

#8 Rock Crawler

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 07:38 AM

I mainly play 2/4 and due to the nature of the players I would have a tough time folding that hand.It does appear that he has a set, or a big pair. I would have expected another raise pre-flop with a big pair though, but thats why they call it slowplaying. But there are more times than I can count that I see other players turn over QJ or pocket Tens, or even a busted draw figuring if you didn't hit the queen you'll fold.With only the information you provided I would say you make the crying call. With additional info on the type of player UTG+2 is my answer may change. (IE: if this was a passive player I would fold on the the turn without a second thought)my .02
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#9 Vade

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 07:41 AM

So I'm the only one folding then?Boo...
Last night I stayed up late playing poker with Tarot cards. I got a full house and four people died.

#10 Swift_Psycho

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 07:56 AM

Vade said:

So I'm the only one folding then?Boo...
There's a decent chance I fold the turn unless a prior read tells me not to. That's why I asked Absolute for a read.

#11 StaleOne

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 07:56 AM

Vade said:

So I'm the only one folding then?Boo...
I think it really boils down to the read. Odds are telling you to call, but if you don't have any knowledge of the guy, I think you have to call.If I wasn't completely sure that he had a set, I would call it down.

#12 wrto4556

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 08:34 AM

Swift_Psycho said:

Any read on the player?

back for kramit

#13 Absolute

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 08:36 AM

Villian is 36/4.5/.86 after 150 hands
i saw him at the riverbank. he was breaking bread and giving thanks. with crosses made of pipes and planks. leaned up against the nitrous tanks.
he said take a hit. hold your breath and i'll dunk your head. then when you wake up, you'll be high as hell and born again.

- The Hold Steady

#14 Absolute

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 08:37 AM

i think its a fold on the turn
i saw him at the riverbank. he was breaking bread and giving thanks. with crosses made of pipes and planks. leaned up against the nitrous tanks.
he said take a hit. hold your breath and i'll dunk your head. then when you wake up, you'll be high as hell and born again.

- The Hold Steady

#15 wrto4556

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 08:43 AM

Absolute said:

i think its a fold on the turn
me, too.Unless you think he is capable of doing this with Q :) T :D or Q :) 7 :D ....
back for kramit

#16 amarillotg

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 08:50 AM

is it possible he 3 bets with the nut flush draw?if i had him on a draw im raising this turn to see what happens.

#17 wrto4556

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 08:51 AM

Actually, given the pot size I wouldn't fold this.
back for kramit

#18 Absolute

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 08:52 AM

Villian doesn't even have an AG factor of 1im not just behind, im way behindhow can you call?
i saw him at the riverbank. he was breaking bread and giving thanks. with crosses made of pipes and planks. leaned up against the nitrous tanks.
he said take a hit. hold your breath and i'll dunk your head. then when you wake up, you'll be high as hell and born again.

- The Hold Steady

#19 Briguy

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Posted 11 May 2005 - 09:02 AM

Fold the turn. A very passive player check-3-bet on the flop, after limp-calling preflop? He hit his set, end of hand.Hell, fold the flop. Save yourself 0.5 BB. The only cards that can save you now are runner-runner combos (Q-K, Q-Q, or K-K).




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