jmbreslin 0 Posted June 30, 2008 Share Posted June 30, 2008 Micro stakes STT. I had recently taken a bunch of chips from villain when I flopped T2P w/ AK in a blind battle and got him to lead into me and call my turn check-raise w/ TPWK. How do you play this differently?PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)UTG (t1325)MP1 (t1400)MP2 (t2737)Hero (t2300)Button (t3225)SB (t1440)BB (t1073)Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, 8. 3 folds, Hero raises to t300, Button calls t300, 2 folds.Flop: (t750) A, K, A(2 players)Hero checks, Button checks.Turn: (t750) Q(2 players)Hero checks, Button checks.River: (t750) A(2 players)Hero checks, Button bets t400, Hero calls t400. Link to post Share on other sites
jmbreslin 0 Posted June 30, 2008 Author Share Posted June 30, 2008 Oh, and I called the river because I figured he would have bet the flop or turn with virtually any hand that beats me on the river. Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted June 30, 2008 Share Posted June 30, 2008 Well, at least it was inexpensive Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted June 30, 2008 Share Posted June 30, 2008 HU on a paired board, lead the flop. Particularly with AA and its such a scary board that you know if he calls/raises to shut down from there. Link to post Share on other sites
jmbreslin 0 Posted July 1, 2008 Author Share Posted July 1, 2008 Yeah, good point - leading the flop is likely to get me important info. Do you CB for about 1/2 pot there? Link to post Share on other sites
simo_8ball 1 Posted July 1, 2008 Share Posted July 1, 2008 $450 is good on that flop imo. Link to post Share on other sites
Nopair3high 0 Posted July 1, 2008 Share Posted July 1, 2008 Yea.. agreed.. bet the flop. maybe even bet the turn if he just calls your bet on the flop. Unless he's slow playing a monster against you, he's as scared of that board as you are. 40-50% of the pot is probably a good bet on the flop. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted July 1, 2008 Share Posted July 1, 2008 $450 is good on that flop imo.Yeah, that sounds good. You need to look like your protecting an A against a flush draw, but not so much that you scare away potential action. Link to post Share on other sites
Sheiky 0 Posted July 1, 2008 Share Posted July 1, 2008 I wouldn't call the river, he can value bet absolutely everything by then and It seems like a really random spot to bluff given that at this level he's likely to get looked up by someone playin the board Link to post Share on other sites
TravisG 0 Posted July 1, 2008 Share Posted July 1, 2008 I wouldn't call the river, he can value bet absolutely everything by then and It seems like a really random spot to bluff given that at this level he's likely to get looked up by someone playin the boardyeah, you said it, it's basically a really random spot and that's why i call. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted July 1, 2008 Share Posted July 1, 2008 yeah, you said it, it's basically a really random spot and that's why i call.If youre going to call, bet. You can fold out better hands easily with that board. Link to post Share on other sites
cdipierr 0 Posted July 1, 2008 Share Posted July 1, 2008 Hate to be a "me too", but yeah, bet the flop. If he calls, you're done with the hand, but you'll get plenty of folds in the long term from anything that might catchup later. Link to post Share on other sites
Jam-Fly 8 Posted July 1, 2008 Share Posted July 1, 2008 300-400 on flop. don't really see the point in betting higher than thatas played, I think I call the river. He has a bluff here enough for it to be profitable I think Link to post Share on other sites
jmbreslin 0 Posted July 1, 2008 Author Share Posted July 1, 2008 As it turns out he did have a King - I'm guessing he didn't bet the flop because he was scared of an Ace, and then didn't bet the turn when the flush card fell. When I checked the turn he figured his K was good so led out.Hard to know if a flop bet would have folded him given that he was holding a K. Link to post Share on other sites
Sheiky 0 Posted July 1, 2008 Share Posted July 1, 2008 Hard to know if a flop bet would have folded him given that he was holding a K.betting the flop would never fold a king in a million years Link to post Share on other sites
AimHigher 0 Posted July 1, 2008 Share Posted July 1, 2008 As it turns out he did have a King - I'm guessing he didn't bet the flop because he was scared of an Ace, and then didn't bet the turn when the flush card fell. When I checked the turn he figured his K was good so led out.Hard to know if a flop bet would have folded him given that he was holding a K. It really doesn't matter because you are making a C-bet against his range not his individual hand.Let's say you make a C-bet of 450. That would be 37.5% of the total pot. That means you are saying: "I wager that this bet will make you fold at least 37.5% of your range."If he calls more than 37.5% of the time, it's -EV. If he folds more than 37.5%, it's +EV. Link to post Share on other sites
Sheiky 0 Posted July 1, 2008 Share Posted July 1, 2008 It really doesn't matter because you are making a C-bet against his range not his individual hand.Let's say you make a C-bet of 450. That would be 37.5% of the total pot. That means you are saying: "I wager that this bet will make you fold at least 37.5% of your range."If he calls more than 37.5% of the time, it's -EV. If he folds more than 37.5%, it's +EV.I'm not good at math, but i'm pretty sure the % he needs to fold for a bet to be profitable isn't the % of the pot you bet Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted July 1, 2008 Share Posted July 1, 2008 It really doesn't matter because you are making a C-bet against his range not his individual hand.Let's say you make a C-bet of 450. That would be 37.5% of the total pot. That means you are saying: "I wager that this bet will make you fold at least 37.5% of your range."If he calls more than 37.5% of the time, it's -EV. If he folds more than 37.5%, it's +EV. I'm not good at math, but i'm pretty sure the % he needs to fold for a bet to be profitable isn't the % of the pot you betYoure good enough at math to know thats wrong!I think where AimHigher was intending to go is that if youre bluffing (so P(winning)=P(villain folds)), then you need to bet the % of the pot that makes him fold at least half the time? Link to post Share on other sites
jmbreslin 0 Posted July 2, 2008 Author Share Posted July 2, 2008 Unfortunately I'm not good enough at math to follow what any of you are saying... Link to post Share on other sites
AimHigher 0 Posted July 2, 2008 Share Posted July 2, 2008 Youre good enough at math to know thats wrong!I think where AimHigher was intending to go is that if youre bluffing (so P(winning)=P(villain folds)), then you need to bet the % of the pot that makes him fold at least half the time?Where did I go wrong?Isn't the percantage we need him to fold the result of: bet / (bet + pot)? At least if we completely exclude our current equity? Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted July 2, 2008 Share Posted July 2, 2008 Where did I go wrong?Isn't the percantage we need him to fold the result of: bet / (bet + pot)? At least if we completely exclude our current equity?no, thats the equity you need to the river, including fold equity, to make a bet. Link to post Share on other sites
AimHigher 0 Posted July 2, 2008 Share Posted July 2, 2008 no, thats the equity you need to the river, including fold equity, to make a bet.Yeah, I understand. But how do I calculate the EV of a continuation bet? Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted July 2, 2008 Share Posted July 2, 2008 Yeah, I understand. But how do I calculate the EV of a continuation bet?A CB is really just a semi-bluff and both are calculated the same way:P(villain folds)*pot +P(villain calls)*[(pot+bet)*P(you beat villain)-bet*P(you lose to villain)]Note that P(you lose to villain) includes the probability that he raises and you fold, and that you never call a raise. Pure bluffs are just P(you beat villain)~0, so you drop the bolded term. Link to post Share on other sites
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