Subway Call (fr) (5/10)

[CobaltBlue 662]

Bellagio 5/10 NLHE (10-handed)

Cobalt $970

UTG $1400

CO $1050

 

Cobalt is SB w/ . I likely have a weak-tight image as I've been folding pretty regularly to aggression. UTG and CO are young LAGs and somewhat competent, but perhaps too LAG to be great. UTG straddled as he'd regularly been doing. CO has been known to limp/call somewhat light (like face-rag) in straddled pots.

 

Pre-flop:

4 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Cobalt calls, BB calls, UTG raises to $120, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, Cobalt calls, 1 fold

 

Flop ($420): (3 players)

Cobalt checks, UTG checks, CO checks

 

Turn ($420): (3 players)

Cobalt checks, UTG checks, CO bets $250, Cobalt calls, 1 fold

 

River ($920): (2 players)

Cobalt checks, CO goes all-in, Cobalt calls all-in for $600

 

Any one go different?

[cwik 0]

interesting spot. Not sure what CO is repping here that doesn't bet the flop, so I can see why you wanna call down.

[BaseJester 1]

Any one go different?

I play it exactly the same, except for the parts where you call.

[cwik 0]

I play it exactly the same, except for the parts where you call.

what the hell can the CO rep there? He bets the flush draw, set, and a pair on the flop (maybe not 6 or 2, but doesn't barrel the river with one of those).Honestly the only hands he can possibly on this board is quads or 54. This is air a lot more often.

[Acid_Knight 2]

interesting spot. Not sure what CO is repping here that doesn't bet the flop, so I can see why you wanna call down.

I concur

[BaseJester 1]

what the hell can the CO rep there? He bets the flush draw, set, and a pair on the flop (maybe not 6 or 2, but doesn't barrel the river with one of those).Honestly the only hands he can possibly on this board is quads or 54. This is air a lot more often.

The river call makes sense, but the whole hand feels like an attempt to get into this marginal situation.It's a big chunk of Cobalt's stack preflop. The villain takes a suspect line, but what are we hoping for on the turn? He can say, "Ha ha, bitch. You bluffed off your whole stack and I called with a pair of fives!" That's fun and all, but I don't think it makes money.

[Acid_Knight 2]

The river call makes sense, but is the whole hand feels like an attempt to get into this marginal situation.It's a big chunk of Cobalt's stack preflop. The villain take a suspect line, but what are we hoping for on the turn? He can say, "Ha ha, bitch. You bluffed off your whole stack and I called with a pair of fives!" That's fun and all, but I don't think it makes money.

It definitely makes money. That's the point of the play. Combine the reads with your opponent's actions and it is profitable.

[Sheiky 0]

I'm slightly annoyed about it, but I echo BaseJesters statements

[simo_8ball 1]

Fold preflop.It is at best about breakeven.

[AimHigher 0]

"Cobalt calls all-in for $600"Don't post results Cobalt, you know that. B)

[TrueAce13 18]

I have the biggest question here, what do we beat if he is shoveling? I mean, if villain is slightly competent, would he really stack off on a bluff here? With villain being LAG, I could see him making this move with many combinations of hands (54, 76, etc.). I think this is a fold

[krup24 0]

Honestly the only hands he can possibly on this board is quads or 54. This is air a lot more often.

so villian is never capable of checking a set on the flop? he bets flush draw but doesn't stab with 54 on the flop? i love having the discipline to check a flop here with a set. if CO opened the hand and took this line, i would be way way way more inclined to play it like Cobalt.with that said it is still really really close between calling/folding imo

[CobaltBlue 662]

Villain raises or re-raises pre-flop with a pocket pair. If not, he bets the flop. And checking a set on this flop isn't "disciplined"...it's kind of dumb. Also, villain most likely bets the flop with any decent draw knowing that if he doesn't take it down, he can gain himself a free card if he chooses on the turn if he's called.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Fold preflop.

Getting at least 12-1 implied? Knowing that some portion of the time we've got the best hand and are better than our opponents?The only major problem is that we're OOP.

[simo_8ball 1]

Getting at least 12-1 implied? Knowing that some portion of the time we've got the best hand and are better than our opponents?The only major problem is that we're OOP.

There's a problem with your statement.You're saying you have at least 12-1 implied, but you don't have 12-1 implied if you sometimes have the best hand already. You aren't going to be able to get 12-1 implied every time you hit a set, and you aren't going to win the pot every time you hit a set. You're looking at the maximum potential implied odds and assuming those are your actual implied odds. You need at least 12:1 to break even if your opponent has something like KK and is open shoving every single flop regardless. 3 way it's more interesting, but it also means a set is less likely to win postflop.Overall I'd say your implied odds from 'set or fold' are lower than about 8:1 (total guess), which isn't even close to breakeven odds. The one thing I can say for certain is that you need to be able to make a fair amount on non set flops. If you really think you have a fair amount of postflop value unimproved with 55 OOP in a 3 way pot then ok, but I'm skeptical. I think your call is breakeven at best.

[Acid_Knight 2]

Villain raises or re-raises pre-flop with a pocket pair. If not, he bets the flop. And checking a set on this flop isn't "disciplined"...it's kind of dumb. Also, villain most likely bets the flop with any decent draw knowing that if he doesn't take it down, he can gain himself a free card if he chooses on the turn if he's called.

I think preflop is kind of close, but it's not a big deal either way.Every word that you typed here is pretty much the exact reason why this play can be profitable. Players don't check sets here. If we're beaten, it's almost always by exactly 45 or quads and that doesn't make up many hand combos.Also, if villain is competent, yeah, he can shove here as a bluff since we won't have a hand that often.

[Naismith 0]

I really have no idea what the villain thinks we might fold out in this spot. It really looks like he can only have quads or absolutely nothing and I always lean towards nothing.

[Naismith 0]

so villian is never capable of checking a set on the flop? he bets flush draw but doesn't stab with 54 on the flop? i love having the discipline to check a flop here with a set. if CO opened the hand and took this line, i would be way way way more inclined to play it like Cobalt.with that said it is still really really close between calling/folding imo

One of the reasons a LAG player plays super LAG is that you don't ever have to slowplay big hands, especially in stupid spots like this one.

[tskillz187 0]

I have no idea what Villain has here. I think it's gotta be something stupid like QTdd. I don't really know what he wouldn't cbet the flop with though, seems odd to go for a delay c-bet on that board. I guess he thought the river was a scare card and spazzed out on it.

[David_Nicoson 1]

I have no idea what Villain has here. I think it's gotta be something stupid like QTdd. I don't really know what he wouldn't cbet the flop with though, seems odd to go for a delay c-bet on that board. I guess he thought the river was a scare card and spazzed out on it.

It's not the PFR who's betting the turn and river.I think the villain's range includes some draws. UTG knows he's up against an aggressive opponent. So he might check/raise the flop. Knowing this, might our competent LAG mix it up by checking a draw here? Since his river range includes a lot of air, we're calling there. But we can't simultaneously say he shouldn't bet the river with one pair hands and that it's obvious that the hero should call with less than top pair.

[tskillz187 0]

I suck at reading HH.

[DonkSlayer 1]

Do we think villain would shove a straight or flush on this river, given the action?If so, I fold. If not, calling is closer.Hard to think x3 would shove this river after the board paired and flushed too.

[Dictius 0]

Why can't the villain have a flush here?He didn't bet the flop because he figured he would be getting called a lot and decided to take a free card to try and hit his flush.After it checks through again on the turn he figures no one is strong and bets as a semi-bluff.

[mtdesmoines 2]

Getting at least 12-1 implied? Knowing that some portion of the time we've got the best hand and are better than our opponents?The only major problem is that we're OOP.

So if we're calling PF because we're getting 12:1 implied, doesn't that mean that we believe villain has and overpair and we need to hit our set?

[Sheiky 0]

Do we think villain would shove a straight or flush on this river, given the action?If so, I fold. If not, calling is closer.Hard to think x3 would shove this river after the board paired and flushed too.

$600 is all Cobalt has left, he's either betting $600 or betting nothing given the pot size and I don't think there's anyway at all he checks trips+