Cross Post - Hand From 2+2

[antistuff 0]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=221044its actually an omaha8 hand but it plays out as omaha high.i've thought and thought and really have no idea what the best play on the turn is.if i knew utg+1 i could find an easy fold or check raise all in. but hes completely unknown.like....damn....what do you do here.....

[bobbywithani 0]

Just a thought, you say that it plays out as an omaha hi hand, but still since it is an O8 game shouldn't that change the range we put villian on. Of course the nut flush is still a huge part of his range, but our redraws to a FH have to be a lot stronger in an O8 game than they would in an omaha hi game.

[antistuff 0]

Just a thought, you say that it plays out as an omaha hi hand, but still since it is an O8 game shouldn't that change the range we put villian on. Of course the nut flush is still a huge part of his range, but our redraws to a FH have to be a lot stronger in an O8 game than they would in an omaha hi game.

absolutly. it also means he is more likely to have a suited ace in his hand because nobody folds a2s or a3s preflop.

[rvrchsrhtr 0]

I go with the lead half pot line on the turn and fold to a PSRR

[BigLebowski 0]

Agree with Buzz on 2+2. Unless Hero is planning to call anything he is giving villians a great opportunity to bluff him off the pot by checking.

[dingas 0]

You can do some math and determine how often villain has to have the nuts to make folding correct here. You have to call $20 to win $40.If he has the nuts you have 23% equity, if he doesn't have it, he may or may not be drawing live to a full house - I will estimate his equity at about 8%.If he has it, your total expectation is (40)(.23) - (20)(.77) = -6.2If he does not have it, your expectation is (40)(.92) - (20)(.08) = 35.2Let x represent the chance that he has the nuts: your expectation becomes EV = (-6.2)x + 35.2(1-x)Set EV = 0 and solve for x 35.2 = 41.4xx = 0.8502Thus, you have a positive expectation if he has the nuts 85% of the time or less. This whole analysis completely ignores implied odds, however, which complicate things considerably. Probably the implied odds somewhat devalue calling here, because you are more likely to be paying off on the river than getting paid off. I vote for calling here because it is more fun. Objectively, a fold may be the best play, but I don't think that either play is really a big mistake in the long-run.

[antistuff 0]

You can do some math and determine how often villain has to have the nuts to make folding correct here. You have to call $20 to win $40.If he has the nuts you have 23% equity, if he doesn't have it, he may or may not be drawing live to a full house - I will estimate his equity at about 8%.If he has it, your total expectation is (40)(.23) - (20)(.77) = -6.2If he does not have it, your expectation is (40)(.92) - (20)(.08) = 35.2Let x represent the chance that he has the nuts: your expectation becomes EV = (-6.2)x + 35.2(1-x)Set EV = 0 and solve for x 35.2 = 41.4xx = 0.8502Thus, you have a positive expectation if he has the nuts 85% of the time or less. This whole analysis completely ignores implied odds, however, which complicate things considerably. Probably the implied odds somewhat devalue calling here, because you are more likely to be paying off on the river than getting paid off. I vote for calling here because it is more fun. Objectively, a fold may be the best play, but I don't think that either play is really a big mistake in the long-run.

how does it work out if we toss our whole stack in? i am assuming we have zero fold equity. 85% is an awful lot.

[bobbywithani 0]

absolutly. it also means he is more likely to have a suited ace in his hand because nobody folds a2s or a3s preflop.

Of course I realize that A2,3,4,5 S is a big part of his range, but at the same time so is a naked Ah. Really when we check this turn we can only just put the money in, because we are giving up too much by checking. 1. People overvalue hi hands in O8(at least that what my biggest leak is) 2. Checking to anyone in this spot is just asking for a bet from any type of hand. 3. I suck at O8 but I still don't think there is any better option in this hand but to bet/fold.

[checkymcfold 0]

checking the turn isn't actually that bad if hero commits himself to showing down no matter what in so doing. it's probably the best way of getting max value if we are ahead here. the problem is that if we want to be able to fold our hand, we have to lead the turn.i probably c/c, c/c (or lead if i boat up) since i do think that we're ahead more often than we're behind here since our line is sooooo weak.in any case, this hand is a good illustration of why position matters so damn much in pl games.

[antistuff 0]

i want to check raise all in fwiw.