7 replies to this topic

[crocd99]

guys here is a hand i want your opinion on. a little background it is the second hour of the tourney i have been playing with endernation and b3yon just about the whole tourney. the average is 6k. endernation has taken back to back beats and seems to be steaming a little is in the chat but he was pissed. him and b3yon have been argue about being donks and busting each other and clearly dont like each other. ender instantly moves in and b3yon thinks for a bit and calls

Full Tilt Poker Game #6629759952: $32,000 Guarantee (49691300), Table 120 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:14:51 ET - 2008/05/30
Seat 1: MiamiHawk99 (4,830)
Seat 2: b3yron (3,205)
Seat 3: gcptrap (1,080)
Seat 4: fg911 (19,820)
Seat 5: crlspoker (3,695)
Seat 6: cgillies (7,171)
Seat 7: KILLTONY (7,050)
Seat 8: crocd99 (3,125)
Seat 9: EnderNation (3,995)
MiamiHawk99 posts the small blind of 60
b3yron posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to crocd99 [9h 9d]
EnderNation: wow what a suckout
gcptrap folds
fg911 folds
crlspoker folds
cgillies folds
sigep31 (Observer): wow whAT A F A G
KILLTONY has 15 seconds left to act
KILLTONY folds
crocd99 raises to 360
EnderNation raises to 3,995, and is all in
MiamiHawk99 folds
b3yron calls 3,085, and is all in

textbook fold but what about with the above info me and a friend cant agree

[Metternich]

[x] Two players all in
[x] Playable but marginal hand
[x] Easy Fold

[copernicus]

this is actually pretty close imo. ender is steaming and on a pretty wide range, say top 1/3. b3yron knows it, and is probably playing a little looser than against anyone else. Even putting him on top 15% gives you about 37% * 6600 - 63% * 2800 = 675 equity, plus making your stack much more competitive. I think I gamble here, and watch the counterfeit ace outs

[Cappy37]

I'm thinking that no matter how badly B3ryon is steaming, he's showing up with AK or TT+ here facing a raise and an all-in and cold-shoving out of the blind with the raiser to act behind him. Looks like your M is about 16, so you aren't married to this.
I know I'm suggesting a ridiculously tight range, but these two are going to get into their p*ssing matches in Blind vs. Blind confrontations and re-steals. I'm viewing B3ryon's action as more of a "haha I caught you!" than a pure gamble. One thing you didn't make overly clear was how both of them viewed your image. That is worth a few points in the decision, too. You're raising the CO, which discounts your hand quite a bit in their eyes, but the shove and cold-call truly suggest you need to find a better spot.

Coper brings up an interesting point about possibly being up against dueling Ax hands, but the likelihood of one of the genuises turning over something like KJ is just too likely to be that optomistic. I'm not sure there is enough Ax and lower PP hands that fit their ranges to make this a profitable call. I'd almost rather have 98 or T9 here to make this call. No way I want to "hold" against two random hands that could bring as many as 4 overs. Steaming players can pick up Queens in this spot, too, from my experience. Never forget that!

The only info you have is a. ) they hate each other and b. ) they were both 100% comfortable getting all the money into the middle. If you can stare into B3ryon's soul and feel he's cold-shoving Ace-Six here, then go crazy. 99 isn't *my* triple up or go home hand.. It's the hand I actually flash when I steal a blind or take down a 752 flop with a CB.

[copernicus]

I'm thinking that no matter how badly B3ryon is steaming, he's showing up with AK or TT+ here facing a raise and an all-in and cold-shoving out of the blind with the raiser to act behind him. Looks like your M is about 16, so you aren't married to this.
I know I'm suggesting a ridiculously tight range, but these two are going to get into their p*ssing matches in Blind vs. Blind confrontations and re-steals.

I dont see how you have enough of a read to eliminate AQ and 88 from your tight range. With those in its essentially neutral cEV, but positive $EV because of the strength of tripling up. As I said...close call.

[crocd99]

results sorry i cant but the hand history up but i cant find it so i will just tell you

i ended up calling with my nines Endernation had AK off and B3ryon had 88. my buddy thought i was a total idiot for calling but i thought he was wrong considering the circumstances. given the situation i thought the results were definately a good possibility i really believed that a low pocket was what b3ryon had because of the time he took he never really took too much time and i know he really wanted to bust endernation. and given my image (i raised three orbits in a row in late position and folded to reraises) he figured he could just move in and i would fold.

so given all though info i thought it was a good opportunity to gamble and triple up. i know i would of still be decent chip wise but i stillthought it was a good spot to gamble in

i ended up losing to a king on the turn but it happens.

[Cappy37]

I dont see how you have enough of a read to eliminate AQ and 88 from your tight range. With those in its essentially neutral cEV, but positive $EV because of the strength of tripling up. As I said...close call.

Oh, the range is relatively unimportant. Nines are going to dread seeing JT+ and any pair above them, the former far more likely than the latter. Even if it ends up KT and A3, we're getting paid pretty well for some intense fingernail biting. I didn't mean to "narrow" that range, I was just lazy and put AK instead of 'anything JT+'. That's the bottom of the non-bluff range of the initial shove (I'd give him credit for 77+ on the pairs side), but the cold call with Hero still to act *has* to be given quite a bit of respect. I just don't see any way around this. 2nd villain isn't cold-call-shoving w/ players w/ money in the pot yet to act, and showing down pairs like 22-77. I'm just not buying that.

Look at it this way: We're less than 50% to triple, but one of those idiots is going to be around the next hand with 'donking' chips. I'd hate to take the Hellmuthian approach, but if there is some decent play considering your M and the blinds, I think our chips are a bit more valuable than overcalling 2 all-ins where we could easily be either drawing to two outs, or re-drawing to two outs in a hurry. Getting 3 (and change) to 1 on our money where we're most likely 40% and down to win outright is simply a gamble, pure and simple. The old adage of "tripling our chips is not tripling our equity" comes into play. I'm not the number cruncher, but it's probably barely doubling our equity at best, and probably less than that. We're doubly covered, so it's a zero-sum game.

I think that's the real argument. The 32k isn't exactly a $1.20, we really should behave as such. That said, I'm not losing much sleep whether I call or fold here. I'm not even certain how much having TT or JJ here changes the equation. Truthfully, , the real bad habit I have is the call/fold can depend on how many other tourneys I got going at the same time.

[copernicus]

Look at it this way: We're less than 50% to triple, but one of those idiots is going to be around the next hand with 'donking' chips.

The old adage of "tripling our chips is not tripling our equity" comes into play. I'm not the number cruncher, but it's probably barely doubling our equity at best, and probably less than that. We're doubly covered, so it's a zero-sum game.

Less than 50% but more than 33 1/3% which is all you need.

I also disagree that tripling our chips here doesnt at least triple our equity. The ICM is crude at best, especially in the shorter stack range. For example, you cant say that 4M has less than 2x the cash equity of 2M, or 8M less than 2x the cash equity of 4M. At the other end going from a comfortable stack that is near chip leader and doubling up to a stack where you can hammer small stacks at least makes up for the ICM effect.

Imo, a "$EV/cEV" vs M curve would rise steeply in the 0-8M range, continue to rise but more gradually in the 8-20M range, rise but very gradually in the 20M-40M range, and then flatten or decline slightly after that. (Obv the ranges are swags, but until you are close to the money, "additional chips lose value" isn't correct outside of the very generalized ICM. (Q is also going to have some effect)