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Can I Fold Kk Here?


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#41 simo_8ball

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 08:50 AM

http://forumserver.t...d.php?p=4270755Cop, it seems clear that you aren't willing to listen to those posting here. Please try posting your thoughts in that thread. See what the reaction is from the HSMTTers. I posted that thread as a $100 MTT against a good TAG opponent, and it is still a clear bet on the turn. Thus far everyone in all three threads have said that checking the turn is a horrible mistake, and you are the sole supporter of it.

#42 simo_8ball

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 09:00 AM

View Postcopernicus, on Thursday, May 22nd, 2008, 5:13 PM, said:

1) Read some cash books and 2) watch some cardrunners videos, 3) Bond18 talks about pot control quite a bit if I remember correctly. 4) I totally disagree that maximizing thin value is profitable in tournaments when doing so can cripple you. 5) Small pots for small hands, and by the turn a single big pair is a small hand.
1) Done. A cash book would tell you to bet the turn here.2) Done. Cardrunners videos would tell you to bet the turn here.3) Bond18 would bet the turn here every single time. He would bet 2/3 to 3/4 pot, and he would call a shove.4) I never mentioned thin value. This isn't a thin value bet. Betting QT here would be getting closer to a thin value bet, but I'd still bet it anyway.5) Don't get caught up on that cute "small hand small pot" phrase. I think it's leading you astray. If you have a small hand and the pot is already big, that phrase no longer applies. Here the pot is getting to be a large size, and if you are only looking to get one more bet in, it is by FAR better to bet the turn and check the river than to check the turn and bet or call the river.6) 5 is a moot point because an overpair here is a big hand. And we want a big pot. We want his stack.

View Postcopernicus, on Thursday, May 22nd, 2008, 5:18 PM, said:

Why would you hate this train of thought? You of all people should understand the math...if the competition is undreadable and youre guessing whenever you play for stacks, you cant beat the rake consistently.
I hope this a just a huge level. I hope, beyond all hope, that you aren't being serious here. I really don't know what to say. I'm just completely lost for words.

#43 Acid_Knight

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 09:33 AM

I read the replies.Initially, I think that the hand is played very standard. There are a large number of hands that will continue on the turn like a pair and a flush draw or pair and a straight draw. We can definitely get one and sometimes two more streets of value from these hands depending on how the board cards fall.Whoever said this is a check back because it's a WA/WB situation is very very far off imo. If the flop is Q72r, then yes. The fact that his range can consist of hands where he's got 2 outs (like KTo) to hands where he's got 15 outs (OESD with FD) in addition to hands that are beating us means that this is the polar opposite of WA/WB.By betting the turn (I think bet sizes here are excellent given stack sizes) we charge the weaker hands to draw and we have what is a fairly easy fold if we do get raised since it's a pretty dirty board for him to try and run a bluff on.I don't necessarily think we bet the turn with the intention of fistpumpinstacalling a shove or looking to get it in, but there are just too many worse hands that he has that will pay a turn bet here for us to be checking back.

#44 Temporary Nuts

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 09:51 AM

View Postsiquinte, on Wednesday, May 21st, 2008, 12:23 AM, said:

Can i fold here, or just shove the rest?
Given the read on the villain I think you pretty much have to fold because he's not raising anything that doesn't crush you to death... though... lol I has Kings I'm getting it in bc I lack self control.This whole line is fine... including the turn bet since you know a majority of his range he'll call down with. Only hands I'm scared of are TT, 88, T8 and 9-7... I think this is 9-7 more often than any other hand.
QUOTE (NoBBiR @ Monday, August 11th, 2008, 7:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
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#45 copernicus

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 11:06 AM

View Postsimo_8ball, on Thursday, May 22nd, 2008, 10:00 AM, said:

1) Done. A cash book would tell you to bet the turn here.2) Done. Cardrunners videos would tell you to bet the turn here.3) Bond18 would bet the turn here every single time. He would bet 2/3 to 3/4 pot, and he would call a shove.4) I never mentioned thin value. This isn't a thin value bet. Betting QT here would be getting closer to a thin value bet, but I'd still bet it anyway.5) Don't get caught up on that cute "small hand small pot" phrase. I think it's leading you astray. If you have a small hand and the pot is already big, that phrase no longer applies. Here the pot is getting to be a large size, and if you are only looking to get one more bet in, it is by FAR better to bet the turn and check the river than to check the turn and bet or call the river.6) 5 is a moot point because an overpair here is a big hand. And we want a big pot. We want his stack.I hope this a just a huge level. I hope, beyond all hope, that you aren't being serious here. I really don't know what to say. I'm just completely lost for words.
We obv disagree, and I dont have access to 2+2. Its not a level. I stand behind betting smaller and folding to the reraise, as I have from my first post, and before the results showed I was right! Youre the one being stubborn here. Give me a good reason to agree and I will, pleading "consensus" isnt a reason, nor is proclaiming that youre right, especially in the face of the results.
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#46 Sheiky

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 11:19 AM

I love this reply-yea...id pot control by bloating the chit out of it.

#47 copernicus

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 11:30 AM

View PostSheiky, on Thursday, May 22nd, 2008, 12:19 PM, said:

I love this reply-yea...id pot control by bloating the chit out of it.
ty for crossposting someone who got it wrong!
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#48 Acid_Knight

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 11:53 AM

View Postcopernicus, on Thursday, May 22nd, 2008, 12:06 PM, said:

We obv disagree, and I dont have access to 2+2. Its not a level. I stand behind betting smaller and folding to the reraise, as I have from my first post, and before the results showed I was right! Youre the one being stubborn here. Give me a good reason to agree and I will, pleading "consensus" isnt a reason, nor is proclaiming that youre right, especially in the face of the results.
Why do you need to bet smaller anywhere?800 into 1300 on the flop and 1500 into 2900 on the turn seem to be almost ideal bet sizes. We're pretty deep so it takes a big hand or big cajones for him to c/r the turn, so when he c/rs, we fold. I see no reason to ever bet smaller on either of these streets given the board texture. It's not like we're pot committing ourselves in any remote fashion by betting the turn.

#49 simo_8ball

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 12:00 PM

View Postcopernicus, on Thursday, May 22nd, 2008, 8:06 PM, said:

We obv disagree, and I dont have access to 2+2. Its not a level. I stand behind betting smaller and folding to the reraise, as I have from my first post, and before the results showed I was right! Youre the one being stubborn here. Give me a good reason to agree and I will, pleading "consensus" isnt a reason, nor is proclaiming that youre right, especially in the face of the results.
I didn't actually see that the results had been posted. They are irrelevant though. We know that AA and 22 are in his range in some %. If villain had JTo it wouldn't prove I was right. By that rationale, folding KK preflop is correct against a guy shoving ATC if he happened to have AA that one time.And FWIW I implied early on that I would bet and probably fold to a raise on the turn, so we would lose the same amount by betting as by checking (and calling or betting the river). The difference is, if we have the best hand we make significantly more by betting.

#50 Poker Addict

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 12:02 PM

Okay, two responses on the other forum that are thought out and go into a bit of reasoning agree with Cop on this, one does not - so I am thinking. How small do you bet on the flop and still charge enough for any kind of draw? I just don't know if betting less then half the pot achieves it. But I very rarely do that. So what would you bet on the flop?I am also NOT checking behind on the turn, period. So what would you bet into this pot? If he did have a strange straight draw, I do not want to give him a free card. And these are not value bets to me at all, I feel I am protecting my hand.The check raise, I have looked at this hand so many times. And I am trying to figure out what he does this with besides air that we beat. I can't think of anything unless he is a complete moron.So I glanced through the thread, Copernicus, what exactly do you recommend by the smaller bet sizing?(not saying what is right or wrong, but I just want to think about this for a while)The posts from 2+2...******************* POST 1^^ If he calls two bets, he's going to be pretty close to felted. I think the turn decision is close actually, if we bet and a "competent TAG" shoves I think calling is going to be very marginal -- the OESD got there, the board was pretty dry so he could have flatted with a set, there are a lot of hands he could shove for super-thin value or as a semibluff (AT, 99, 77, some combo draw where he picked up diamonds on the turn) but wouldn't necessarily do so. I think it's going to be tough to get 2 more streets of value given stacks and a TAG villain, but by checking behind you'll be able to get 1 more.Edit: And because OP raised OTB, we can rule out QQ/JJ from Villain's range most of the time.*****************POST 2Yesterday this was from a $30 MTT today its a $100 MTT? I havent checked to see if it was a $10 STT the day before!Todd Terry's answer is more complete but similar to mine in yesterday's thread. There is very thin value on either side of this hand over a lot of villains range. The only time there are strong values is when villain has the set and hero is drawing to a 2 outer, and thats not the side we want to be on.Re the PSR of 5, yes it does make you want to lean toward getting it all in, but I dont think its compelling. Hero still has 30 bb, and betting smaller on the flop (in the name of "pot control" or "rationalizing the PSR" or WA/WB) is reasonable with such a dry board.*********************POST 3The problem is that you have an overpair on the flop and your stack only has 5x the current pot (a PSR of about 5). In this situation, you are committed, unless an Ace comes.On the turn, do not give any draws. Bet at least 2500, this disallows giving flush or straight any chance to draw. He will pay you off with much worse hands than yours.Yes, you may be beat by a set or by a made straight. But with only a PSR of 5, you can treat an overpair as the nuts.
FORMERLY: chek - raise (ps)
FORMERLY: CrazyZeke (ftp)

sheets: sick hold
BKiCe (observer): gl chek - raise

hishga [observer]: shulda gone with the chek approach
hishga [observer]: fold everything


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#51 Acid_Knight

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 12:12 PM

View PostPoker Addict, on Thursday, May 22nd, 2008, 1:02 PM, said:

The problem is that you have an overpair on the flop and your stack only has 5x the current pot (a PSR of about 5). In this situation, you are committed, unless an Ace comes.On the turn, do not give any draws. Bet at least 2500, this disallows giving flush or straight any chance to draw. He will pay you off with much worse hands than yours.Yes, you may be beat by a set or by a made straight. But with only a PSR of 5, you can treat an overpair as the nuts.
I disagree with almost all of this here.We are not committed to this pot. On the turn, it would be very rare that we ever need to make a bet bigger than the one that the OP made since the villain rarely will have a worse hand and have more than 25% equity on the turn.Betting bigger, like 2500 as you suggest, does needlessly tie us to the pot since if he were to c/r, it would be an almost certainty that we are beaten at that point since it'd look like he has so little FE.Managing the pot size in relation to the stacks is a very delicate balance and we should be very careful to get as much value as we can while providing ourselves every opportunity to make the correct play in the pot. Your thinking should never be "I have an overpair and a stack of about 5x the pot, so I can't fold unless an A comes."

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 12:15 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Thursday, May 22nd, 2008, 1:12 PM, said:

I disagree with almost all of this here.We are not committed to this pot. On the turn, it would be very rare that we ever need to make a bet bigger than the one that the OP made since the villain rarely will have a worse hand and have more than 25% equity on the turn.Betting bigger, like 2500 as you suggest, does needlessly tie us to the pot since if he were to c/r, it would be an almost certainty that we are beaten at that point since it'd look like he has so little FE.Managing the pot size in relation to the stacks is a very delicate balance and we should be very careful to get as much value as we can while providing ourselves every opportunity to make the correct play in the pot. Your thinking should never be "I have an overpair and a stack of about 5x the pot, so I can't fold unless an A comes."
Let me clear this up. These aren't my recommendations... they came from 2+2. I just wanted to include a little bit of mixture. The only comments I made are above the asterisks.
FORMERLY: chek - raise (ps)
FORMERLY: CrazyZeke (ftp)

sheets: sick hold
BKiCe (observer): gl chek - raise

hishga [observer]: shulda gone with the chek approach
hishga [observer]: fold everything


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#53 simo_8ball

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 12:23 PM

Some other 2p2 responses:"Why are you trying to control the pot? You want to get all of your money in.""It's really dangerous to see monsters under the bed like this, timidly betting with KK on a T high board scared to death a set is gonna jump out and eat you. Put him on a T and figure out the best way to get his money into the pot. If he does something that makes you think he's stronger than that, then reevaluate. Right now, villain has done absolutely nothing that should make us even consider the fact that we may be behind.""he probably thinks you're on a blindsteal and is calling with like j8o or something. Make him pay for that outdraw and definitely put in a decent bet. Don't give him a free card/pay off a nice portion of your stack on the river.""When he's checking to me here, after check calling the flop, I value bet 100%of the time. The amount of the value bet will vary, especially if he has been check/raising previously when he has made a real hand. So a good size value bet to try and get as much in the pot as possible if he has shown to be passive/call stationy, and a somewhat smaller bet if I feel the need to show some caution.If he shows some strength and bets out into me on the flop, I would flat call for pot control and re-evaluate on the turn. The plan would be to get to the river cheaply, unless he shows weakness again on the turn, then I'd probably throw out a thin value bet and see what he does.I want to try to get three streets of value out of good/pretty strong hands. I think a lot of money is left on the table when people are reluctant to value bet thin on the river, so I tend to err on the side of getting some money in the pot.""Bet 2500, shove river.""bet/call plz""Who needs pot control, you have the nuts!""I would only check here to induce a bluff or thin call on the river, not for pot control.Since he has enough chips to call 2 more bets without being felted I bet here pretty much always.If he was shallow enough that he can only really call one more bet without being all in, I might check here because a turn bet might scare off a hand that calls one more bet on the river.....but that's not the case here."

#54 mtdesmoines

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 12:26 PM

View Postsiquinte, on Tuesday, May 20th, 2008, 8:23 PM, said:

*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to siquinte [Ks Kd]
It's a 4.40 There's no bad time to shove KK
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#55 Poker Addict

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 12:33 PM

Yeah Simo, I saw those too. But I don't know who's who over there. I don't know who's good and who's not.(even over here there are some peoples advice that I weight heavier then others - not saying that about anyone in this thread of course).What I would like to do is get input on bet sizing street by street. Specifics.

View Postmtdesmoines, on Thursday, May 22nd, 2008, 1:26 PM, said:

It's a 4.40 There's no bad time to shove KK
I disagree, because by the time we get to the check raise on the turn I am trying to figure out what we beat. I am also trying to disregard teh 4.40 aspect because I don't play those.
FORMERLY: chek - raise (ps)
FORMERLY: CrazyZeke (ftp)

sheets: sick hold
BKiCe (observer): gl chek - raise

hishga [observer]: shulda gone with the chek approach
hishga [observer]: fold everything


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#56 simo_8ball

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 12:33 PM

If we say that one bet is going in regardless against hands that currently beat us (bet the turn and shut down, check behind and call river, or check behind and value bet river), then we can forget about those. Any line is the same. Ok, by checking behind we occasionally catch a king or a board pair to save us against a set/two pair, but that's not enough to make too much difference imo.All we need to do is work out the best line against hands that we currently beat. I think if you consider it in these terms, betting the turn stands out as the best play.

#57 Sheiky

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 12:51 PM

Wtf are you worried about bet sizes for? They're basically perfect

#58 copernicus

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 12:55 PM

And its unanimous at 2+2? Or did you select the ones that agree with you? Let me guess. :club:
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Posted 22 May 2008 - 01:04 PM

I don't think this has to be an argument. I put above that I was NOT going to check this turn. So I was just looking for another viewpoint. I bet the same as the OP.I'm also thinking that shoving to the check/raise could be wrong here. Because I do not know what villain would do this with that we beat. I don't think he does it with AT (or just a naked T for that matter). It could be completely air but then his line leading up to this point doesn't make a lot of sense either. And the original title to this was not, do I check behind? Although that could come across. It was:Can I fold KK here?I am looking after the check raise, I think you can make a strong argument for folding here.
FORMERLY: chek - raise (ps)
FORMERLY: CrazyZeke (ftp)

sheets: sick hold
BKiCe (observer): gl chek - raise

hishga [observer]: shulda gone with the chek approach
hishga [observer]: fold everything


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#60 copernicus

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Posted 22 May 2008 - 01:07 PM

View PostPoker Addict, on Thursday, May 22nd, 2008, 1:33 PM, said:

What I would like to do is get input on bet sizing street by street. Specifics.I disagree, because by the time we get to the check raise on the turn I am trying to figure out what we beat. I am also trying to disregard teh 4.40 aspect because I don't play those.
If you want to play poker:PF fine. Pot=1300Flop 600, Pot = 2500Turn 1000, fold to any reasonable raise. TPTK isnt raising you here.If you want to gamble:PF fine, Pot = 1300Flop, 1300, Pot = 3900Turn, Push and start your next tourney.
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