Another Annoying Bubble Spot

[jmbreslin 0]

A different $3.40 STT turbo.PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Hero (t2390)Button (t1480)SB (t6660)BB (t4470)Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K. Hero raises to t400, 2 folds, BB calls t200.Flop: (t675) 4, 7, 6(2 players)BB checks, Hero bets t600, BB raises to t1200, Hero ???Minraise is awfully suspicious - could this possibly be a hand I beat, or too obviously a big hand? What do you do here?

[jmbreslin 0]

Oh and if you're wondering about my PF minraise, I was hoping to entice Button to come over the top.

[Aces Rule 0]

BB could call with a huge range. I don't think your dead yet but very possiblyly behind to a str8 &/or flush draw and the min-raise a semi-bluff AND pot sweetener. Is the BB a solid enough player to sweeten a pot on a draw? Only thing is why did he ck-raise if he were on a draw and if he did have better than a draw (pair with a str8 draw for example) why not protect it with a bigger re-raise? Has he previous betting pattern been this timid or tricky? I think I slow down and watch for scare cards and try to get to sd cheap - otherwise lay it down on the turn if BB leads out strong.You know what just occured to me? Foreclosure Raise!!I just finished John Vorhaus' book Killer Poker Hold'em Handbook. When I ordered it I didn't reaslize it was a Limit Hold'em but I read it anyway and remembered a Limit game tactic called Foreclosure Raise which is a ck-raise on the flop for a drawing hand. If the check doesn't go thru on the flop, the BB ck-raises in order to put the treat of another ck-raise on the turn so that he may get to see the turn and river card free for the cost of an extra sm bet on the flop. It's a OOP defensive tactic that apparently works in limit - didn't know about when I play it but that was over 4 years ago. You don't suppose our villian is a cross-ove limit player using some lesser known tactic in a no-limit game do ya??

[AimHigher 0]

Oh and if you're wondering about my PF minraise, I was hoping to entice Button to come over the top.

I don't like min raising to induce a resteal as I don't think it's going to induce a resteal often enough to compensate you for the value you lose from the SB/BB. I think generally speaking he either a hand he is willing to shove with or he doesn't. When it gets to this stage I like to make my open raises 2.5x so I can save a little on my steals but not sacrifice too much value on my raises. I'm not sure if that is correct, but may be food for thought. This is a tough spot though, but one thing I notice that might make it easier is you didn't post his stats. If you didn't already know, PokerTracker 3 Beta is available for free and it comes with a built in HUD and might make it a little easier.I think his range here seems quite wide, there are lots of possible combidraws he could have, some two pairs, overpairs, or sets. It feels like a fold, but I couldn't say for sure without ICMing it up.

[sennin 0]

Raise to 500. For the record you can safely raise 2.5x starting at 50/100Im going broke on the flop here, you're already very committed to the hand, you're now in 4th place if you fold, and tbh I think you're ahead here a good amount.

[jmbreslin 0]

I didn't know it was available for free. But generally speaking, are those kind of stats really helpful for STTs? I always thought they were more helpful for cash games...

[jmbreslin 0]

Im going broke on the flop here, you're already very committed to the hand, you're now in 4th place if you fold, and tbh I think you're ahead here a good amount.

I'm not so sure about that - what hands do you see him check-minraising with that I beat here? A check-minraise is a real show of strength, IMO. That's totally a move designed to suck more money into the pot without scaring away his opponent.

[pokerinc 0]

I'd shove there. I agree with the foreclosure raise line of BB, though I don't agree with that name. Man that's stupid.Anyway, BB's raise leaves him room to fold to a shove. So make him fold to your shove.

[AimHigher 0]

I didn't know it was available for free. But generally speaking, are those kind of stats really helpful for STTs? I always thought they were more helpful for cash games...

I think they help, I'm not sure it gives you a huge margin but it definitely helps classify opponents playing styles. It's worth having for the HUD alone, but there are so many other awesome features included you'd be mad not to get it while it is free!

[AimHigher 0]

I'm not so sure about that - what hands do you see him check-minraising with that I beat here? A check-minraise is a real show of strength, IMO. That's totally a move designed to suck more money into the pot without scaring away his opponent.

Here is a fairly liberal range, I thought we had less equity against his range than this, but apparently we actually have a lot. Looking at this, that is what must make it a call.I think a lot of equity here must come from the overpairs as we are flipping/close to flipping with most of the combidraws. I tried to include as many reasonable combidraws as I could think of. If we ICM it using this range I'd bet it was easily a call.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 249,996,384  games	 0.047 secs	 5,319,072,000  games/secBoard: Dead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	77.559%	  77.03% 	00.53% 		 192565597 	  1330343.00   { KcKd }Hand 1: 	22.441%	  21.91% 	00.53% 		  54770101 	  1330343.00   { 66+, 44, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Td9d, Td8d, 9h8h, 76s, 64s+, 53s+, 4d3d, 76o, 64o+, 53o+ }---

Edit: I actually realized I forgot to put the board in, so this post shows us with way more equity than we actually have. Going to fix it now and do the ICM calculation.

[copernicus 0]

It could be anything from a set to small overpairs to the board, draws all over the place. It could even be air putting you on a missed flop with two high cards. You really have no way of knowing. the problem is that if you fold youve dropped into a tie for 3rd but if you win you move into very solid contention. I push here.

[AimHigher 0]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 113,850  games	 0.125 secs   910,800  games/secBoard: 4s 7d 6dDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	47.261%	  45.68% 	01.58% 			 52008 		 1799.00   { KcKd }Hand 1: 	52.739%	  51.16% 	01.58% 			 58244 		 1799.00   { 66+, 44, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Td9d, Td8d, 9h8h, 76s, 64s+, 53s+, 4d3d, 76o, 64o+, 53o+ }---

Our equity here is actually closer to what I thought it was. I thought we would have been a favorite, but it seems against my guesstimated range we are a slight dog.In any case: Folding gives us an equity of $4.4547 and calling gives us an equity of $4.529135495. So it's definitely a call, at least against that range. I used an ICM calculator and here is my work:($0 * .52739) + ($9.3715 * .47261) + ($6.3336 * .0158) = $4.529135495Edit: fixed a slight mistake.

[copernicus 0]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 113,850  games	 0.125 secs   910,800  games/secBoard: 4s 7d 6dDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	47.261%	  45.68% 	01.58% 			 52008 		 1799.00   { KcKd }Hand 1: 	52.739%	  51.16% 	01.58% 			 58244 		 1799.00   { 66+, 44, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Td9d, Td8d, 9h8h, 76s, 64s+, 53s+, 4d3d, 76o, 64o+, 53o+ }---

Our equity here is actually closer to what I thought it was. I thought we would have been a favorite, but it seems against my guesstimated range we are a slight dog.In any case: Folding gives us an equity of $4.4547 and calling gives us an equity of $5.429773415. So it's definitely a call, at least against that range. I used an ICM calculator and here is my work:($0 * .52739) + ($9.3715 * .47261) + ($6.3336 * .158) = $5.429773415

You dont really need to do the hard work once you put yourself as a coin flip dog. With all that dead money its a huge tEV overlay that ICM isnt gong to overcome.

[AimHigher 0]

You dont really need to do the hard work once you put yourself as a coin flip dog. With all that dead money its a huge tEV overlay that ICM isnt gong to overcome.

That is a little advanced so can I just recite back my interpretation and you can elaborate?Because there's so much in the pot already there is no way folding can be correct once we work out we are flipping? We need to be a significant underdog in order for a fold to be correct?

[copernicus 0]

That is a little advanced so can I just recite back my interpretation and you can elaborate?Because there's so much in the pot already there is no way folding can be correct once we work out we are flipping? We need to be a significant underdog in order for a fold to be correct?

Yes.

[Poker Addict 0]

I can not imagine a spot where I fold this. It is a pretty sick spot but yeah, with how much money there is in the pot and what you have left behind you just can't lay down KK.Sorry if you are beat. I have been the constant Bubble Boy in STT's over the last few days. It's really been sick, even getting my money in as a dominate favorite.

[throwemaway 0]

Reason number 2427428825795801 why you shouldn't min raise big pairs in Sngs

[Sheiky 0]

PF i rather meaningless as with the stacks this shallow it doesn't really matter a great deal what you do, FWIW i think min-raising's fine.But seriously, folding the flop is imo really really horrible.

[outsider13 0]

Min raise is just a way to invite people to beat you on the flop. I keep this standard 99.999% of the time.As played, I can never fold here. Get it in, hope it holds.

[jmbreslin 0]

For one thing, I'm very rarely a minraiser or limper with big pairs but there are situations when it can be the better move. Button is down to an M of 7 and will be looking for a good spot to steal, so if there was any chance of enticing him to come over the top it can offset the rare times someone will call with junk and outflop me.Very interesting to see that I'm a coinflip dog against a range of made hands/combo draws. That's assuming the range is fairly accurate, which I'm not sure it is. If we accept that the check-minraise is a show of strength, which I think it is, that would place more weight on the bigger made hands and less on the draws in the range. For example, I just don't see a check-minraise here with the NFD+overs or pairs+NFD's. But I guess cop's point is that it still doesn't make me enough of a dog to fold with all the dead money in the pot.

[outsider13 0]

For one thing, I'm very rarely a minraiser or limper with big pairs but there are situations when it can be the better move. Button is down to an M of 7 and will be looking for a good spot to steal, so if there was any chance of enticing him to come over the top it can offset the rare times someone will call with junk and outflop me.

I am always suspicious of UTG min raises. Remember too, non standard raises, you are giving away information here.

[Poker Addict 0]

Yeah, I would prefer to mini raise if the guy that we are trying to induce into the pot is the BB and really short. Otherwise I think we are inviting trouble. I understand that you want the button to come over the top but I think that also invites the BB to play because of all the money in the pot already.

[copernicus 0]

For one thing, I'm very rarely a minraiser or limper with big pairs but there are situations when it can be the better move. Button is down to an M of 7 and will be looking for a good spot to steal, so if there was any chance of enticing him to come over the top it can offset the rare times someone will call with junk and outflop me.

I dont think youre going to get more action min-raising than standard raising very often. Stacks that are getting short are looking for first in vigorish and even a limp knocks many of them outThe gap is wide so youre only getting action 10-15% of the time even if they arent looking for FIVMin raises look suspicious and may actually slow him down with AJ+, 88-99.so the only hands you are realistically increasing your action a lot of the time are TT+...2.3%. Lets be generous and say 5%. On some flops you'll still get action on youre KK, and the move doesnt improve things. On the opposite side, a trash hand will improve to two pair or trips a little less than 5% of the time, and garbage Aces that might have folded will improve 15% of the time.I dont see it being a fair trade off.

[potatoman 0]

I min raise more than most in sngs, but not here.I do it when I have a healthy stack (12BB-16BB), I have 10 minute levels and, usually, I don't min raise OOp into someone that has me covered. All situational of course.I do it because I play post flop better than my opponents, not to induce a resteal.EDIT: Also, I min raise ONLY on the bubble and ONLY against terrible players. Against Avg -Good players, I'm usually better off making 2.5-3BB raises.For the record, I'm fine with a shove preflop. This will get action in a $3.40 turbo and you can't get outplayed.I'm fine with a 2.5bb raise. This would be my standard play.I can do a lot of different things on the flop, but I'm probably betting 1/2-2/3 pot most of the time. If I don't have a read on my opponent by this time either I'm 6-8 tabling or I'm not paying enough attention. Reads help a lot if he decides to call or shove on me.Also, always have a plan for what you're going to do if a villain reraises you on this board before you bet out.As played, I'm torn. It would be hard for me to get away from. I've folded bigger hands, but as played, I don't have much left and I'm in the BB next. Shove and pray?Poker tracker can help, but usually I just pay attention to what hands people call raises with/open with/ from what positions, how much value they put on hands like TP/MK, two pair, etc, do they C bet flops often, reraise C bets often? Bluffs? and so on. These notes can help you make better decision later on and can help you get the most value out of your made hands.

[jmbreslin 0]

I dont think youre going to get more action min-raising than standard raising very often. Stacks that are getting short are looking for first in vigorish and even a limp knocks many of them outThe gap is wide so youre only getting action 10-15% of the time even if they arent looking for FIVMin raises look suspicious and may actually slow him down with AJ+, 88-99.so the only hands you are realistically increasing your action a lot of the time are TT+...2.3%. Lets be generous and say 5%. On some flops you'll still get action on youre KK, and the move doesnt improve things. On the opposite side, a trash hand will improve to two pair or trips a little less than 5% of the time, and garbage Aces that might have folded will improve 15% of the time.I dont see it being a fair trade off.

Sure, but you're making a few huge assumptions that don't necessarily hold true in these tourneys (carrying over the discussion from the other thread, lol):1) That the typical $3.40 STT turbo player knows what FIV is and why it is important2) That the typical $3.40 STT turbo player understands the gap concept3) That the typical $3.40 STT turbo player gets suspicious about small raises, which are very common at this levelThat being said, I'm willing to accept that this might not have been the best spot for the KK minraise and I do tend to play it more standard 95% of the time.