Tptk Facing Big Flop Raise

[jmbreslin 0]

Bubble of $3.40 STT turbo.PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Hero (t3895)Button (t1940)SB (t2370)BB (t6795)Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K. Hero raises to t600, 2 folds, BB calls t400.Flop: (t1300) A, 4, Q(2 players)BB checks, Hero bets t800, BB raises to t6195, Hero???I can't let this go...or can I? Hands I can see him making this move with include: 2P, a set, pair with a FD, perhaps a naked FD, with something like AJ, KQ, KJ as outside possibilities. I'm well behind the 2P and set, about 50/50 against the pair+FD, and ahead of the others. How much should the fact that I'm 2nd in chips and we're on the bubble factor into this decision?

[Aces Rule 0]

HUGE over-raise! Gotta love the donks no matter how much you hate their tactics! My gut says call but my head says fold. All at stake resting on one pair and if he has an ace you're drawing to 3 outs or runner-runner spade draw - pretty expensive call. But that huge over-bet just looks like a draw looking to push you off the pot. If he's loose with all-ins and or bullying, I'd probably call but I'm ready to kick myself hard when the cards turn over! If he's usually tighter than a maniac, I'd have to, to, to to, think it over a little longer!

[copernicus 0]

this has the odor of QcXc and your flipping coins EV wise. In an MTT I might take the gamble, but with a solid stack in an STT I dont think its a good play.

[Sheiky 0]

This isn't a big flop raise, you only have 2400 left after the flop bet and there's already more than that in the pot, i call here.

[jmbreslin 0]

It may not be as big a raise as it looks (probably just laziness on his part at picking the right amount) but anything more than a minraise basically commits me to the pot, so the question is still whether I want to put my SnG life on the line with TPTK here. I'm concerned that the hands I'm ahead of are so remote as possibilities that I'm actually well behind his likely range.

[outsider13 0]

this has the odor of QcXc and your flipping coins EV wise. In an MTT I might take the gamble, but with a solid stack in an STT I dont think its a good play.

Pretty much what I was thinking.

[Aces Rule 0]

It may not be as big a raise as it looks (probably just laziness on his part at picking the right amount) but anything more than a minraise basically commits me to the pot, so the question is still whether I want to put my SnG life on the line with TPTK here. I'm concerned that the hands I'm ahead of are so remote as possibilities that I'm actually well behind his likely range.

You're right - any std re-r would put you all-in - I stand corrected on my HUGE over-raise comment. So if you fold you're still 2nd in chips but by only barely. I still have a tuf time with this one thou and it still goes back to my assesment of the player and how aggressively he pushes draws and moderate hands - if he's usually tight I guess I fold this to try again later but if he's generally loose-agg I think I'd make my stand here.

[jmbreslin 0]

I still have a tuf time with this one thou and it still goes back to my assesment of the player and how aggressively he pushes draws and moderate hands - if he's usually tight I guess I fold this to try again later but if he's generally loose-agg I think I'd make my stand here.

Yeah, unfortunately I rarely, rarely have this kind of info on a player since I play turbo STTs and usually 2-3 at a time. Turbos progress so quickly that it's very difficult to gather any really worthwhile info on opponents, and playing 2-3 at a time makes it even harder.

[WhatArunAA 0]

Never fold here.. if shorty was really short.. .and you dont want to go broke.. then I guess just open shove ( that is if chip leader is a knowledgable player).. in this situation.. im never folding.

[jmbreslin 0]

Okay, I did make the call and I did go broke. Villain had Qc3c...the flush didn't complete, but he rivered his 3. So cop gets the prize for predicting the hand (though I'm sure you wouldn't have guessed the Xc would be the 3!).