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Dear Long Live Yorke


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#21 LongLiveYorke

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 09:39 AM

View Postspeedz99, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 10:31 AM, said:

Where do you get the '(1/2)x'? There are only two envelopes...'x' and '2x'. Adding in the '(1/2)' and halving that is what's giving you the extra .25.
Once I pick an envelope, I fix a number, so by switching I can get either double or half that number:So, I get either 2X or .5X.There's a mistake in my logic somewhere, but it's pretty subtle I think.

#22 nutzbuster

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 09:46 AM

View PostShakeZuma, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 8:40 AM, said:

JUST PICK A DAMN ENVELOPE
On the floor.crying.(edit: I do love this stuff because I am a mathmatical moron and watching smart people is inspiring. Continue plzthx)



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#23 loogie

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 09:56 AM

The 50% chances cancel each other out. 2x * .5x = x You should be multiplying the two options and not adding them.

#24 LongLiveYorke

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 10:00 AM

View Postloogie, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 1:56 PM, said:

The 50% chances cancel each other out. 2x * .5x = x You should be multiplying the two options and not adding them.
No, I'm finding the expected value. I sum the value of the possible outcomes weighted by their probability of occuring.

#25 loogie

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 10:04 AM

View PostLongLiveYorke, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 11:00 AM, said:

No, I'm finding the expected value. I sum the value of the possible outcomes weighted by their probability of occuring.
We've already established that you're doing it wrong...

#26 keith crime

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 10:06 AM

you have a 50% chance of picking BIG if you switch you get .5BIGyou have 50% of picking small if you switch you get BIG.5*.5 BIG + .5*BIG= .75 BIGnot switching.5 BIG + .5 (.5BIG) = .75 BIGeither way your expected value is the middle of big and small .75 BIGswitching doesn't matterthe mistake in logic is thinking that your first choice tells you something about how much the BIG might be but that's already been decided

#27 Ouch-8s

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 10:11 AM

View PostJoeyJoJo, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 10:01 AM, said:

When you have absolutely no ****ing clue what you're talking about, just keep your mouth shut. If it helps, think about losing $2k in equity in a free roll, the amount of absolute money we're talking about is irrelevant as our bank accounts are clearly not very similar. Thanks for chiming in with your words of wisdom.
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#28 hblask

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 10:38 AM

View PostLongLiveYorke, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 12:39 PM, said:

Once I pick an envelope, I fix a number, so by switching I can get either double or half that number:So, I get either 2X or .5X. There's a mistake in my logic somewhere, but it's pretty subtle I think.
I can't tell if you'd seen my responses when you wrote this.... was my response wrong?Basically, your handling of X here is incorrect. X, at this point, is what? The value of the envelope you have chosen. So you can't say you are either going to double it or halve it because, depending on which one you've chosen, you only get one of those, and you've already chosen the envelope, so you can't just add those probabilities together. You are either going to (halve it or double it), or (keep it). If you keep it, your expected value is 3/4 of the max value, because the choice was made before. If you trade it, you have to use the formula I provided with an X and Y, with the same expected value. It's been too long since I've had a stats class to remember all the terminology that explains this mathematically.
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#29 Randy Reed

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 10:42 AM

I pray this don't turn into an I Bought and Brand New Envelope Thread.
Waiting for the winds of change
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You pass the days

#30 Napa_Don

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 10:52 AM

View PostLongLiveYorke, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 12:39 PM, said:

Once I pick an envelope, I fix a number, so by switching I can get either double or half that number:So, I get either 2X or .5X.There's a mistake in my logic somewhere, but it's pretty subtle I think.
If that is, in fact, you in your avatar, I think you look smarter in the old one and I am more likely to trust you with your old avatar because for some reason you now remind me of the lead singer of Everclear. Just throwing that out there.

#31 SuitedAces21

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 10:55 AM

View PostNapa_Don, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 2:52 PM, said:

If that is, in fact, you in your avatar, I think you look smarter in the old one and I am more likely to trust you with your old avatar because for some reason you now remind me of the lead singer of Everclear. Just throwing that out there.
Is this a joke? Yeah, it must be.
Spoiler

#32 hblask

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 10:57 AM

View PostNapa_Don, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 1:52 PM, said:

<br />If that is, in fact, you in your avatar, I think you look smarter in the old one and I am more likely to trust you with your old avatar because for some reason you now remind me of the lead singer of Everclear. Just throwing that out there.<br />
Yeah, LLY is famous:http://www.thom-york...o/biography.phpHe's a physicist AND a musician.
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#33 chgocubs99

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 10:57 AM

Posted Image
QUOTE (dscoot @ Friday, April 10th, 2009, 3:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
im still not sold that many of these people that get these big online scores are winners when it comes to the live game, which, by the way, is real poker.


#34 keith crime

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 10:58 AM

every everclear song sounds the same

#35 Napa_Don

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 10:59 AM

View PostSuitedAces21, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 1:55 PM, said:

Is this a joke? Yeah, it must be.

View Posthblask, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 1:57 PM, said:

Yeah, LLY is famous:http://www.thom-york...o/biography.phpHe's a physicist AND a musician.
Dammit. But seriously, his avatar leads me to believe him less just the same.

#36 hblask

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 11:21 AM

View PostNapa_Don, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 1:59 PM, said:

Dammit. But seriously, his avatar leads me to believe him less just the same.
To be fair, I wasn't sure if his last avatar was him or not. I hoped it was, but suspected it wasn't.
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#37 El Guapo

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 11:27 AM

View PostNapa_Don, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 11:59 AM, said:

Dammit. But seriously, his avatar leads me to believe him less just the same.

View Posthblask, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 12:21 PM, said:

To be fair, I wasn't sure if his last avatar was him or not. I hoped it was, but suspected it wasn't.
I'll admit it, I'm an idiot. I thought the old av was him too until a couple months ago when I read something about radio head on here and that the lead singers name was Thomas Yorke. Then it all made sense.

#38 LongLiveYorke

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 11:40 AM

View Posthblask, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 2:38 PM, said:

I can't tell if you'd seen my responses when you wrote this.... was my response wrong?Basically, your handling of X here is incorrect. X, at this point, is what? The value of the envelope you have chosen. So you can't say you are either going to double it or halve it because, depending on which one you've chosen, you only get one of those, and you've already chosen the envelope, so you can't just add those probabilities together. You are either going to (halve it or double it), or (keep it). If you keep it, your expected value is 3/4 of the max value, because the choice was made before. If you trade it, you have to use the formula I provided with an X and Y, with the same expected value.
X is whatever value we see in the envelope we open. Half the time it's the larger value and by switching we get .5X, and half the time it's the smaller envelope and by switching we get 2X. So, X is a fixed number and doesn't depend on which envelope we chose first. If I keep it, my expected value is certainly X, because that's how much I'll get every time. If I change, I get either double X or half X, which has a higher expected value. So, why don't I switch? Clearly switching is the wrong answer.

#39 LongLiveYorke

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 11:43 AM

View PostNapa_Don, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 2:52 PM, said:

If that is, in fact, you in your avatar, I think you look smarter in the old one and I am more likely to trust you with your old avatar because for some reason you now remind me of the lead singer of Everclear. Just throwing that out there.
LOL at everything about this. I had the old avatar since day 1. I'm digging the new one.

#40 keith crime

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Posted 15 April 2008 - 11:45 AM

View PostLongLiveYorke, on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008, 11:40 AM, said:

X is whatever value we see in the envelope we open. Half the time it's the larger value and by switching we get .5X, and half the time it's the smaller envelope and by switching we get 2X. So, X is a fixed number and doesn't depend on which envelope we chose first. If I keep it, my expected value is certainly X, because that's how much I'll get every time. If I change, I get either double X or half X, which has a higher expected value. So, why don't I switch? Clearly switching is the wrong answer.
see my answer switching and not switching have the same EV




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