15 replies to this topic

[custom36]

*Note - the converter hates UB. Deal with it.Ultimate Bet NL Hold'em 0.25/0.50Hero: $49Villian: $23Hero is CO with A K :club:3 limpers to Hero. Hero raises to $2. Folded to limpers, who all call.Flop: Q J 6 :club:Checked to Hero. Hero bets $5. One fold. UTG+1 goes all in for $21 total. Folded to hero.Do you call?

[Vade]

16 dollars to win 34 dollars is the pot odds.I like the call here. You've got 9 clean outs and 6 of what are referred to as 1/2 outs as an A or a K may or may not make you the best hand. So presume 12 outs. You should win this pot almost half the time getting over 2-1 on your money.Go get em

[Swift_Psycho]

Vade said:

16 dollars to win 34 dollars is the pot odds.I like the call here.  You've got 9 clean outs and 6 of what are referred to as 1/2 outs as an A or a K may or may not make you the best hand.  So presume 12 outs.  You should win this pot almost half the time getting over 2-1 on your money.Go get em

Your forgetting his straight draw outs as well.

[Vade]

Whoops I amEven better then

[custom36]

No debate? Nobody that would even consider a fold? Jesus, I may have to post the results soon (there's a surprise ending to this hand).

[Vade]

Custom36 said:

No debate?  Nobody that would even consider a fold?  Jesus, I may have to post the results soon (there's a surprise ending to this hand).

There's no debate because you must call here mathematically in a cash game ;)A tournament you'd get a lot of arguers against.What could someone use as an argument against a call here? That they don't like risking their 16 dollars?

[custom36]

Lol, I was hoping it wasn't that simple. I thought about a fold, but then I counted all of my outs and decided it would be stupid to fold. I called.Turn: 4 :diamond:River: 4 :heart:He turns over K 10 and I take down the pot. I love Friday.

[Swift_Psycho]

Custom36 said:

No debate?  Nobody that would even consider a fold?  Jesus, I may have to post the results soon (there's a surprise ending to this hand).

The thing is that I wouldn't be faced with the same decision as you. After 3 limpers, you only raised to 4x the BB. I'd probably have made it more like 6. That would have led to a larger flop bet. By the time the guy moved in, I'd be forced to call off the rest of my chips with this draw because of how much I would have had committed.Truthfully though, this is almost certainly an easy call. If you are against top two, it would be a horrible fold. Against a set, it's very close. Your getting slightly better than 2-1 on this call and your barely worse than a 2-1 underdog against a set. I call in your position.

[Vade]

Sweet. You had him drawing dead to a 9 or an Ace

[princeof56k]

While I agree that mathematically this is a call, I just keep thinking the guy has a set for some reason. Any reads on this guy? I mean there's a straight and a flush draw on the board. He might also think you have Q with a good kicker. I keep thinking this is a set of 6's hoping for a call. If you think you are up against a set that might change things. While you are on a draw to beat him, even if you hit your hand he could outdraw you with a full house.EDIT: oops, posted a little late and saw the results. I was dead wrong. lol

[Swift_Psycho]

princeof56k said:

While I agree that mathematically this is a call, I just keep thinking the guy has a set for some reason.  Any reads on this guy?  I mean there's a straight and a flush draw on the board.  He might also think you have Q with a good kicker.  I keep thinking this is a set of 6's hoping for a call.  If you think you are up against a set that might change things.  While you are on a draw to beat him,  even if you hit your hand he could outdraw you with a full house.EDIT: oops, posted a little late and saw the results.  I was dead wrong. lol

Here's the thing though, the math is so incredibly close that it's about a break-even call if he calls with this hand against a set. If there is any chance that the guy doesn't have a set (and of course there is), folding here is horrible.

[custom36]

princeof56k said:

While I agree that mathematically this is a call, I just keep thinking the guy has a set for some reason.  Any reads on this guy?  I mean there's a straight and a flush draw on the board.  He might also think you have Q with a good kicker.  I keep thinking this is a set of 6's hoping for a call.  If you think you are up against a set that might change things.  While you are on a draw to beat him,  even if you hit your hand he could outdraw you with a full house.EDIT: oops, posted a little late and saw the results.  I was dead wrong. lol

:eh:Yeah, I have the nut flush and nut straight draw. If he makes his flush, I win. If I'm up against a set, the only way to pair that flop while making my flush is with the Q and even then I have a royal flush draw.

[Vade]

princeof56k said:

While I agree that mathematically this is a call, I just keep thinking the guy has a set for some reason.  Any reads on this guy?  I mean there's a straight and a flush draw on the board.  He might also think you have Q with a good kicker.  I keep thinking this is a set of 6's hoping for a call.  If you think you are up against a set that might change things.  While you are on a draw to beat him,  even if you hit your hand he could outdraw you with a full house.EDIT: oops, posted a little late and saw the results.  I was dead wrong. lol

Most players can't put people on bottom set, I know I can't. This is why the math comes through as the only deciding factor. 16 outs and over 2-1 on the call

[princeof56k]

Swift_Psycho said:

Here's the thing though, the math is so incredibly close that it's about a break-even call if he calls with this hand against a set.  If there is any chance that the guy doesn't have a set (and of course there is), folding here is horrible.

First I want t say I agree with you.Not that I want to make a big issue about this, but just as an exercise I went to odds calculator and supposed the villan had a pair of 6's (since a set is the worst thing he could up against). The results came out to be 33% for our hero. Which is almost exactly the odds he is getting. So you are right, this is a mathematical call since there is always the possiblity he doesnt have a set and he is basically even against the worst case senario.

[custom36]

33%?Any club that doesn't pair the board wins it for me = 8 outs.Any 10 wins it for me = 3 outsThen there are runner-runner possibilites, but I won't count them.11 outs = 42%, doesn't it?

[princeof56k]

Custom36 said:

33%?Any club  that doesn't pair the board wins it for me = 8 outs.Any 10 wins it for me = 3 outsThen there are runner-runner possibilites, but I won't count them.11 outs = 42%, doesn't it?

Suppose you are against a set of 6's, and on the turn you make your flush with a 2 of clubs. At that point, your opponent has 10 outs to beat you (3 Queens, 3 Jacks, 3 Twos, and the last Six). Basically all he has to to is pair the board to beat you.