siquinte 0 Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)Hero (t3425)UTG (t3855)UTG+1 (t1955)MP1 (t1315)MP2 (t1885)CO (t2240)Button (t700)SB (t2570)Preflop: Hero is BB with 3, A. 1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t200, 5 folds, Hero calls t100.Flop: (t450) T, 3, Q(2 players)Hero bets t350, UTG+1 raises to t1755, Hero calls t1405.Turn: (t3960) 4(2 players)River: (t3960) 7(2 players)Final Pot: t39602.20 1800 players i'm like 1.5 average stack playing a little less tight than normal, no reads on the villain but he hasn't reaaly played much.Preflop maybe it's a fold, i'm not sure about the flop bet maybe I should have checked, and then i'm gettin almoost 2 to 1 and i figured i have 11 outs so i should call, but maybe it's a little too much gamblingOpinions? Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 You need 35% equity to make this call. If he flopped the flush or set youve got about 28%, if he has anything less youve got nearly 50% equity (putting him on one spade, if he has no spades youre over 50%). How often does he have flush/set vs less? At 50/50 youve got 39% equity, and I doubt he flopped flush/set that often. Id put him on something like AK or KQ with the Ks most of the time. Link to post Share on other sites
DonkSlayer 1 Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 You need 35% equity to make this call. If he flopped the flush or set youve got about 28%, if he has anything less youve got nearly 50% equity (putting him on one spade, if he has no spades youre over 50%). How often does he have flush/set vs less? At 50/50 youve got 39% equity, and I doubt he flopped flush/set that often. Id put him on something like AK or KQ with the Ks most of the time.Explain more, please. You're saying it's a good move, right? t750, so we're getting 1:5 to 1...that's more like 25% right? Bleh, I think this is spew and a good way to overplay and lose your chip advantage, especially when we can guarantee we're behind. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 Explain more, please. You're saying it's a good move, right? t750, so we're getting 1:5 to 1...that's more like 25% right? Bleh, I think this is spew and a good way to overplay and lose your chip advantage, especially when we can guarantee we're behind.Yes, a marginally +EV call, unless i miscalculated..I got 1.8:1 odds to get the 35% I said is needed. If you were only getting 1.5:1=6:4 you would need 40% equity. Link to post Share on other sites
DonkSlayer 1 Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 Yes, a marginally +EV call, unless i miscalculated..I got 1.8:1 odds to get the 35% I said is needed. If you were only getting 1.5:1=6:4 you would need 40% equity.Fair enough. Excessively close. OP, I puss out on this one. Link to post Share on other sites
Sheiky 0 Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 Definite fold PF imo, even to a min raise.If you do call however, i probably check/raise the flop but leading is fine.Once you lead though, i think you have zero option to call the shove, otherwise leading is just pointless. I think you probably have enough equity/odds w/e anyway to call, but i pretty much instacall this after calling PF and leading the flop. Link to post Share on other sites
cheesies 0 Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 Fold pre, happy to get it allin on that flop - I like a check raise. We're flipping vs a lot of his range and have good odds. I doubt he shows up with the set or flush more than 1/3 of the time. Link to post Share on other sites
siquinte 0 Posted March 27, 2008 Author Share Posted March 27, 2008 Thanks for the opinions.I totally agree that A3 is a fold preflop i didn't really think that much.Maybe instead of betting 350 and giving me a 1.8: to 1 call i should have overbet the pot and then making an easy call, but check raising sounds a lot better.Well the guy showed AA, which i really wasn't expecting. So it turned out to be a good call, i had 43.13% to win and 1.8 to 1 on chips But looking back i just played horrible, i've been running really bad lately but not because of the cards i really feel i'm playing a lot worse than usual, i guess i'll worry about college for a couple of weeks and then i'll come back, that always helps. Link to post Share on other sites
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