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Set On A 3-flush Flop


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#1 gvl

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 11:15 AM

One of the first few hands in the tournament, so everyone has around 1500. No reads.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t10/t20
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with 4s.gif 4c.gif
UTG calls t20 (pot was t30), UTG+1 calls t20 (pot was t50), MP1 folds, MP2 calls t20 (pot was t70), MP3 folds, Hero calls t20 (pot was t90), Button folds, SB calls t10 (pot was t110), BB checks.

Flop: 5d.gif td.gif 4d.gif (t120, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets t220, MP2 folds, Hero?
leavingamerica on FTP

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#2 jmbreslin

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 11:32 AM

I highly doubt he'd overbet the pot with a made flush, so it's probably a semi-bluff with a diamond or maybe a med-pp and he's trying to overcharge any single-diamond draws. Tough spot with so many people in the hand. You can't let go of the set here but at the same time you have several still to act after you and one of them could have flopped the flush.

I'd probably go all the way and push. If you do run into a flopped flush you still have a couple of chances to pair the board and fill up.
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#3 copernicus

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 11:57 AM

QUOTE (jmbreslin @ Sunday, March 2nd, 2008, 3:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I highly doubt he'd overbet the pot with a made flush, so it's probably a semi-bluff with a diamond or maybe a med-pp and he's trying to overcharge any single-diamond draws. Tough spot with so many people in the hand. You can't let go of the set here but at the same time you have several still to act after you and one of them could have flopped the flush.

I'd probably go all the way and push. If you do run into a flopped flush you still have a couple of chances to pair the board and fill up.


Another common overbet here is a low flopped flush protecting against an Ad draw. Against 5 random hands bottom set is 50/50 with a flopped 3 flush. The board here lacks high cards that hit someone that would want to protect, and an UTG+1 mid pair might very well have raised against a limper and two of those midpairs make a higher set.

I hate pushing into the possible nuts or near nuts. I think this is a fold or a call and Id lean toward a fold. If I had the top set Id probably call, it moves the equity up to 55% and lower cards are slightly more likely to be live for your boat than Ts.
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#4 jmbreslin

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 05:23 PM

QUOTE (copernicus @ Sunday, March 2nd, 2008, 2:57 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Another common overbet here is a low flopped flush protecting against an Ad draw. Against 5 random hands bottom set is 50/50 with a flopped 3 flush. The board here lacks high cards that hit someone that would want to protect, and an UTG+1 mid pair might very well have raised against a limper and two of those midpairs make a higher set.

I hate pushing into the possible nuts or near nuts. I think this is a fold or a call and Id lean toward a fold. If I had the top set Id probably call, it moves the equity up to 55% and lower cards are slightly more likely to be live for your boat than Ts.


Isn't this a good reason to push, so you can thin the field and not be up against 5 hands?

I hate the idea of pushing into the nuts too, but I also hate both the ideas of folding a set here and calling. I wouldn't want to throw in 220 chips and then face a semi-bluff raise from someone else, or just have a few people call and not know what the heck to do on the turn (or worse, to see a 4th diamond fall).

I don't know, I hate these hands where it seems like you have to choose the least worst option.
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#5 copernicus

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 06:44 PM

QUOTE (jmbreslin @ Sunday, March 2nd, 2008, 9:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Isn't this a good reason to push, so you can thin the field and not be up against 5 hands?

I hate the idea of pushing into the nuts too, but I also hate both the ideas of folding a set here and calling. I wouldn't want to throw in 220 chips and then face a semi-bluff raise from someone else, or just have a few people call and not know what the heck to do on the turn (or worse, to see a 4th diamond fall).

I don't know, I hate these hands where it seems like you have to choose the least worst option.


Its too late to thin a flopped flush from the field, and you dont want to thin the field if there is no flopped flush, you are a favorite and want as much action as you can get. You love a semi-bluff behind you but I doubt youll get one. Why are you afraid of the semibluff if you were going to push anyway?

The only hand that pushing helps against is an overset and the push folds it out fearing a flush, but set over set is so rare I dont think it changes the decision. Think of it this way...with a set you are WA/WB here, and that calls for playing but keeping your chip commitment small. If a couple of the players behind you call thats even better, its more likely that diamonds are duplicated.
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#6 AimHigher

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 06:48 PM

I don't see why we don't just get our money in with a set here. I think there are enough combinations of worse made hands betting here to justify the fact that we will be a 2:1 underdog during the times that we are behind.

#7 copernicus

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 06:56 PM

QUOTE (AimHigher @ Sunday, March 2nd, 2008, 10:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I don't see why we don't just get our money in with a set here. I think there are enough combinations of worse made hands betting here to justify the fact that we will be a 2:1 underdog during the times that we are behind.


Again, youre WA/WB, pushing means youre only getting called by better hands or a very donkish draw.
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#8 AimHigher

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 08:29 PM

QUOTE (copernicus @ Monday, March 3rd, 2008, 2:56 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Again, youre WA/WB, pushing means youre only getting called by better hands or a very donkish draw.


I think this could be quite buyin dependent. I am 100% certain I would get called with worse hands in my typical game, but I don't know what the 2.25s on FTP are like. If there is a noticeable trend of people stacking off very lightly post flop, surely a shove becomes profitable here?

#9 copernicus

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Posted 02 March 2008 - 09:34 PM

QUOTE (AimHigher @ Monday, March 3rd, 2008, 12:29 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think this could be quite buyin dependent. I am 100% certain I would get called with worse hands in my typical game, but I don't know what the 2.25s on FTP are like. If there is a noticeable trend of people stacking off very lightly post flop, surely a shove becomes profitable here?


Stack off light with a 3 flush board and 175 limpers? Id be surprised to see that in a freeroll!
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