I Thought I Liked The Flop, But Maybe Im Wrong..

[IBFT 0]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)MP3 ($52.55)CO ($27.50)Button ($53.50)SB ($43.15)Hero ($126.75)UTG ($50)UTG+1 ($37.75)MP1 ($5.25)MP2 ($19.20)Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 7. 4 folds, CO raises to $1.2, 1 fold, SB calls $0.95, Hero calls $0.70.Flop: ($3.60) 3, 5, 4(4 players)SB checks, Hero bets $2.5, CO calls $2.50, SB raises to $12.5, Hero???Thoughts:1) I don't normally call this preflop. So if you say 'fold preflop', I accept that. It was a lower than normal raise and the SB called, so I figured I'd see a relatively cheap pot with a speculative (thanks VVP) hand.2) I lead out, I thought it was a big flop for me, and as I would if I had a set or a straight, I lead out. COs flat call didnt really surprise me, but SBs huge check raise did.3) Against an overpair, as long as its not aces, im actually around a 2-1 favorite. But I really wasn't considering an overpair here, I felt like SB had to have a huge hand, a set, 2 pr, or a straight, basically killing my overcard and perhaps even my gutshot.4) I have no read on CO, and my only read on SB came after this hand, so I'll just give you numbers, because anything else I say will influence your help too much.31/3.5/1.5Thanks for your help!

[smrphf 0]

Hero? goes all-in. You want to see both the turn and river. I think it is just as likely that he has an overpair than a set. Opinions on this?

[Metternich 0]

instashove

[David_Nicoson 1]

He could be playing a lot of different hands here aggressively. Yeah, he can have a set. But he can have a 66+ really easily, too.

[breathweapon 0]

15 outs to a set = AI

[Ouch-8s 5]

shovel.

[NoBBiR 0]

15 outs to a set = AI

TWICE. 15 OUTS TWICE. Gotta shove.

[Snake Plissken 0]

If you dont realize why you gotta shove here I'll tell you why. If he's got a set, you'll draw to the best hand almost 40% of the time. If he's got 67 you'll catch a club around 33% of the time and 10% for a tie. If he holds A2 it's almost a race. Worst case scenario would be if he had 26 of clubs. If so you'd win around 33% of the time with very slim chances for a split. You have to put in $10 to win $20. Villain's got $30 behind. I've stated the worst case scenarios above, but he might as well have two big clubs or something. Shove

[Andromeda 0]

I knock the table over when shoving my chips in and standing up fistpump style.

[mtdesmoines 2]

All of you forgot about the CO still in the hand. Smooth call. Getting the CO chips in the pot gives us plenty of odds to run this down.

[StilettoNole 0]

All of you forgot about the CO still in the hand. Smooth call. Getting the CO chips in the pot gives us plenty of odds to run this down.

This is interesting. Do we think CO is going to call if we flat call?

[Moneyball16 0]

All of you forgot about the CO still in the hand. Smooth call. Getting the CO chips in the pot gives us plenty of odds to run this down.

I dont think its worth it to try to get CO in. He is folding most hands here whether we call or push, plus we lose all of our fold equity in the hand.Another note is that I would typically lead this flop for more but that is just nitpicking.

[dms26 3]

Hero? goes all-in. You want to see both the turn and river. I think it is just as likely that he has an overpair than a set. Opinions on this?

Agree, except I would say villain is more more likely to have an overpair than a set.

[dms26 3]

This is interesting. Do we think CO is going to call if we flat call?

eh I don't really like flat calling here then facing an all in on the turn if we miss.

[mtdesmoines 2]

eh I don't really like flat calling here then facing an all in on the turn if we miss.

We're not missing and we're not folding anyway because the villain has less than a PSB left (I think).*****Meh, I was wrong. I think getting the CO in is worth the risk. Since this is almost as good as a combo draw, I don't mind getting it in if the villain shoves at us on the turn. Maybe not optimal, but ...