BigDMcGee 3,367 Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Daniel Day Lewis is a 1-15 favorite to win best picture in the sports books. This is a better investment than government bonds, and savings accounts. Your bank is more likely to explode in a ball of God's fiery wraith than Daniel Day is to lose Best Actor. I can't believe this category is even on the board. Link to post Share on other sites
Balloon guy 158 Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 YawnThought the oscars were over. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,367 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 YawnThought the oscars were over.Yawn if you want to, but this is the surest bet ever. Vegas was built on a smaller edge than 6.6 percent. Link to post Share on other sites
LongLiveYorke 38 Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 If I had any money, I'd certainly put a lot of it on DDL. I mean, who else is even nominated? Certainly the most assured Oscar of all time. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,367 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 If I had any money, I'd certainly put a lot of it on DDL. I mean, who else is even nominated? Certainly the most assured Oscar of all time.I'm in another ( non gambling) message board, arguing with a guy who thinks the Clooney from Michael Clayton has just as good of chance as DDL to win. If it was a gambling web site, I'd give him 2-1 odds ( or pretty much any odds he wanted, but I mean, if he think's it's a 1-1, I'm sure he'd take 2-1) and have him bet up to my entire net worth on clooney, and let a trusted third party hold the money. As it is, it's just some Adam Carolla message board, and all I can do is mock him Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,367 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 LOL nopokermessageboardaments... I get used to taking about wagering on gambling websites, then when I talk about it to non gamblers, I get shocked that EV isn't like. .a common concept... here are a couple of posts people made"Nah. No such thing as an Oscar Lock. Gaining 6% doesn't balance out the decent possibility of losing 100%.....The bigger point is that the Academy is stupid and out-of-touch, and history shows they're just as likely to go with George Clooney as they are with Day-Lewis.""Agreed. This isn't the stock market, where you can gain or lose 6 percent in a single day, and there are a slew of other outcomes available. Here are the possible things that can happen with this bet:1) DDL wins, and you gain $6.60 on a $100 bet. 2) DDL loses, and in the words of Gene Wilder, you get nothing. Given that there is a greater than 0 percent chance of #2 happening, it makes no sense to bet so much money for such a little return. For comparison's sake, you can bet $100 on a tennis match between the No. 1 in a tourney and the No. 200 playing that person, and make about $5 to $10 if that player wins. Even that's a better investment than betting on the Oscars, given the Marisa Tomei potential with every award."LMAO.. their lack of handicapping skills, coupled with ignorance of basic gambling concepts makes me really want to wager with them. I linked the wiki entry for Expected Value, and I hope it doesn't stick. Link to post Share on other sites
timwakefield 69 Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Would be worth it if I had like a million dollars to put up . Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,367 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 Would be worth it if I had like a million dollars to put up .shit, it would be worth it to put up 100 bucks on it, I'll never sneeze at 6 bucks, that's enough for a BJ in TJ. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,367 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 more lol I posted a post roughly explaining what a good wager is vs a bad wager, linking expected value, and this is the response I get. I'm cutting it right here, because I simply doubt you really grasp the idea of gambling. Let's assume everything goes right - You won $6.60 on your $100 bet for DDL. The chances of him winning are probably greater than 90 percent. But there's still a chance, albeit small, that he'll lose. Your potential loss on such a transaction would be 100 percent, or $100. If you want to gamble, there are some much better options out there, starting with sports betting and blackjack, both of which offer much higher payouts for reasonable risk. Price certainty does not make something a good investment, the risk vs. reward ratio does. The DDL bet requires betting a lot to get a little in return, with the 1 to 10 percent chance of losing everything. Link to post Share on other sites
timwakefield 69 Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 ^^^^ LOL. Yeah he's right, blackjack is a much more sure thing. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,367 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 LOL here's another quote from that board. This is killing me. All my fancy poker book learning has no relevance, I guess. LOL I keep trying to help this guy, I linked him to 2 +2 and linked him to the amazon page for "getting the best of it" and still he keeps coming at me.Looking back... apparently the thing I said to put your panties in a twist, was that you haven't proven anything regarding the Academy rewarding odds-on favorites at a higher rate (odds-wise) than the field. In other words, if you bet the favorite in every category every year, and I bet the field... guess who'd have more money?Everything else you've spewed is based on your opinion of DDL's performance, or poker odds applied to Oscar voting, which is akin to using a cookbook to predict a horse race. History is on my side, but apparently that's irrelevant to you.And I will gladly stop being a one-upper, but I get the feeling you can't resist being a last-word-guy. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,367 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 This thread is too funny for me. If anyone wants a good laugh, check it out..http://mahalo.30.forumer.com/index.php?sho...c=2884&st=0 Link to post Share on other sites
Theraflu 1,047 Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 This thread is too funny for me. If anyone wants a good laugh, check it out..http://mahalo.30.forumer.com/index.php?sho...c=2884&st=0 I can see why you'd post the link. You've received a lot of positive, engaging response in this thread, and simply quoting the stuff that no one is responding too just isn't sufficient. Link to post Share on other sites
speedz99 145 Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 This thread is too funny for me. If anyone wants a good laugh, check it out..http://mahalo.30.forumer.com/index.php?sho...c=2884&st=0 That was great. It's funny when people think they're experts on something but in reality have no clue. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,367 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 I can see why you'd post the link. You've received a lot of positive, engaging response in this thread, and simply quoting the stuff that no one is responding too just isn't sufficient.LOL Well Excccccuuuuuuuuuuuuusssssssssseeeeee Mmmmmeee!!!!I thought a peek into the mind of the sucker would be amusing and educational, my bad. Link to post Share on other sites
Theraflu 1,047 Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 LOL Well Excccccuuuuuuuuuuuuusssssssssseeeeee Mmmmmeee!!!!I thought a peek into the mind of the sucker would be amusing and educational, my bad.I got nothing. I'm bored out of my skull and don't have any friends or anything to do. Your link and thread don't affect me in any way. I apologize. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,367 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 I got nothing. I'm bored out of my skull and don't have any friends or anything to do.well, obviously that's why I myself am in a flame war on some adam carolla message board LOL. The link may give ya'll a chuckle, is why I posted it to begin with. Glad speedz liked it. Link to post Share on other sites
bigkg 0 Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 I enjoyed reading that. Link to post Share on other sites
Buckeye Hughes 0 Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 You know you have a gambling problem when........... Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,367 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 You know you have a gambling problem when...........You know you have a forum posting problem when is more like it lol Link to post Share on other sites
BenSavage 0 Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Sir Daniel Day-Lewis is going to be drinking milkshakes a plenty tomorrow night. Well deserved. The odds of DDL losing is akin to the chance of Titanic losing all its Oscar nominations in 96. What are the odds looking like for Best Picture? Link to post Share on other sites
Theraflu 1,047 Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Sir Daniel Day-Lewis is going to be drinking milkshakes a plenty tomorrow night. Well deserved. The odds of DDL losing is akin to the chance of Titanic losing all its Oscar nominations in 96. What are the odds looking like for Best Picture?Best picture is more of a toss-up with No Country, which I think is more where the guy's argument of "you don't know what will happen at the oscar's" comes in. They're both great films, and Bardem is a cinch for supporting actor, so I don't think there can be a sure-thing bet with TWBB. Link to post Share on other sites
Theraflu 1,047 Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 On bodog: TWBB: 1/3No country: 3/1 Link to post Share on other sites
chrozzo 19 Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 you're all wrong!i say Cate Blanchett wins best Male Actor in a Leading Role Link to post Share on other sites
BenSavage 0 Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 I'd put $50 on Laura Linney at 50/1, Ruby Dee at 7/2, and Juno at 12/1 (TWBB and No Country will definitely split votes) Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now