Going For Gusto (sh) (10/20)

[CobaltBlue 662]

Bodog 10/20 NLHE (6-handed)UTG $1970MP $2648CO $1964Cobalt $2207SB $2658BB $2455Cobalt is Button w/ . My image is likely TAG, but I have shown enough hesitancy post-flop (backing off with checks and c/fs after c-bets) to potentially give off some impression of weak-tight. UTG is new to the table. MP likes to min-raise pretty regularly with a variety of hands. CO seems a little on the loose side. Blinds have given me a bit of trouble with floats and re-raises. None of the players are idiots.Pre-flop:UTG calls, MP raises to $40, CO calls, Cobalt re-raises to $200, 4 folds, CO callsFlop ($490): :D (2 players)CO checks, Cobalt bets $250, CO callsTurn ($990): (2 players)CO checks, Cobalt bets $500, CO callsRiver ($1990): (2 players)CO checks, Cobalt goes all-in for $1257

[mtdesmoines 2]

Pre-flop:UTG calls, MP raises to $40, CO calls, Cobalt re-raises to $200, 4 folds, CO callsFlop ($490): :D (2 players)CO checks, Cobalt bets $250, CO callsTurn ($990): (2 players)CO checks, Cobalt bets $500, CO callsRiver ($1990): (2 players)CO checks, Cobalt goes all-in for $1257

Well, here's the villain's action:raise/call PFcheck/call with paired flopcheck/call with trips on turncheck/ ? ... a shove is really gutsy. I think we get called by a ton of hands here that behave like this: PPs 88 and above.EDIT: we really need to define what the villain's raise/call PF range is, and then we can decide whether or not the shove is good. He's not believing what you're repping on the flop and turn. What is gonna change his mind on the river?

[tskillz187 0]

The weaker you're perceived the better this play is. His hands seem to be PPs that are decently big though, so I might just surrender.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I don't know if you get him to fold a pair often enough in this situation to show a profit. I mean, if you've been giving up after the flop if your c-bets are called, then logic would dictate that he's gonna fold much of his range on the turn that he won't continue to showdown with.Basically, I think that if he's calling the turn (after you've shown a willingness to fire mostly 1 bullet) then you're gonna get called on the river by 99 or JJ here a lot, even though all he's beating is AK/AQ type hands. I think that decision is made on the turn for him though and unless an AKQ rolls off on the river he's not gonna change his mind about calling you down.

[krup24 0]

now here's cobalt back and attacking, love to see itunfortunately i don't think he fold JJ or better. he probably closes his eyes and calls. but you came this far can't give up now.

[Acid_Knight 2]

but you came this far can't give up now.

This is a big mistake.If he is pretty sure that the guy has a hand that he's not folding, then shoving is a mistake. The only reason to shove is that he thinks he'll win the pot often enough to make it profitable. Because of my reasoning above, I don't think this is the case.

[krup24 0]

This is a big mistake.If he is pretty sure that the guy has a hand that he's not folding, then shoving is a mistake. The only reason to shove is that he thinks he'll win the pot often enough to make it profitable. Because of my reasoning above, I don't think this is the case.

srry didn't think i needed the sw

[Acid_Knight 2]

srry didn't think i needed the sw

It didn't sound like a sw-ish type of post.People really make that mistake in their thought processes A LOT and shove because they figure "well, I can't win if I check" even though they know they're getting called.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Let me re-emphasize that my opponents aren't idiots. While I note that CO is "a little loose", I know that he's capable of thinking. If my opponent is a calling station or we're playing below 3/6, I certainly don't attempt this.

[Royal_Tour 0]

I'm torn.how much would u bet on the turn with AA or KK.would it still be 500 into 990?I think anyone who has played in a game with you long enough will know if you've been making valueplays, or aggro plays the whole day.I think if you ever once showed down a value bet, you screwed yourself here by betting so big when the board kept getting better for you

[krup24 0]

It didn't sound like a sw-ish type of post.People really make that mistake in their thought processes A LOT and shove because they figure "well, I can't win if I check" even though they know they're getting called.

no i give up quite often and rarely fire that last barrell. could be a major weakness idk.

[CobaltBlue 662]

how much would u bet on the turn with AA or KK.would it still be 500 into 990?

Quite likely.

[Royal_Tour 0]

Quite likely.

I added to my above post, I'll re-write it.did you show down any value bets at all during this session?I think if you showed even 1, you then make this river shove look like a bluff.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I added to my above post, I'll re-write it.did you show down any value bets at all during this session?I think if you showed even 1, you then make this river shove look like a bluff.

He's betting $1300 into like $2k.What would you propose he make as a value bet instead?

[CobaltBlue 662]

did you show down any value bets at all during this session?

I don't think that I'd actually shown any hands to that point. My bets on "dry" boards are pretty consistently 50-60% of the pot.

[Royal_Tour 0]

He's betting $1300 into like $2k.What would you propose he make as a value bet instead?

one that gets paid off?

[Acid_Knight 2]

one that gets paid off?

He's betting 2/3 of the pot.Do you really think that a villain is gonna pay off $1000 and fold to $1300? I'm pretty sure that shoving is pretty much the only bet that Cobalt would ever make on this river. Nothing else makes sense with the pot size and stack sizes as they are.

[Royal_Tour 0]

He's betting 2/3 of the pot.Do you really think that a villain is gonna pay off $1000 and fold to $1300? I'm pretty sure that shoving is pretty much the only bet that Cobalt would ever make on this river. Nothing else makes sense with the pot size and stack sizes as they are.

i dunno. i just look at the hand like "if cobalt had AA-QQ here, why is he betting so much on the river. even tho its only 2/3 the pot.i think 750-850 looks more believable. If you're in cobalts shoes (with AA,KK,QQ) and you shovel the river, and villain tanks, then folds a 10 would you feel like. "oh well, i played it perfectly"? or would u think, ya i did bet a little too much in this spot.

[Acid_Knight 2]

i dunno. i just look at the hand like "if cobalt had AA-QQ here, why is he betting so much on the river. even tho its only 2/3 the pot.i think 750-850 looks more believable. If you're in cobalts shoes (with AA,KK,QQ) and you shovel the river, and villain tanks, then folds a 10 would you feel like. "oh well, i played it perfectly"? or would u think, ya i did bet a little too much in this spot.

I'd kick myself when he calls my $850 bet with JJ and I realized how much value I missed out on.Don't look at dollar amounts, look at the % of the pot.If i had $3k and I was sitting there with AA, I'd probably bet about $1250 into $2k.

[Sheiky 0]

If you're in the villain shoes there's no way you're thinking 'omg he bet all three streets and shoved the river, he obv wants me to fold' because Cobalt played this exactly like anyone would play AA KK QQ JJ(?) TTHere i don't think it's a question of 'is my bluff believable?' at all because the villain is not going to call because he thinks you're bluffing and your hand looks nothing like a bluff.

[7s7c 0]

I don't know if you get him to fold a pair often enough in this situation to show a profit. Basically, I think that if he's calling the turn (after you've shown a willingness to fire mostly 1 bullet) then you're gonna get called on the river by 99 or JJ here a lot, even though all he's beating is AK/AQ type hands.

[mtdesmoines 2]

To summarize: 20 posts of ZEEBO Theorum.

[Sheiky 0]

I thought it was the Baluga theorum?If not, then what the hell am i thinking of?

[mtdesmoines 2]

I thought it was the Baluga theorum?If not, then what the hell am i thinking of?

"Baluga theorum basically just says that in a hand that was raised PF, a turn raise indicates that one pair is no good."Anyway, what I'm saying is that no PP is going to fold to this bet once it's called PF, on the flop and the turn.

[Royal_Tour 0]

"Baluga theorum basically just says that in a hand that was raised PF, a turn raise indicates that one pair is no good."Anyway, what I'm saying is that no PP is going to fold to this bet once it's called PF, on the flop and the turn.

meh,zeebo theorem is overrated IMO.i have trouble believeing someone would call with a 5 on a board of 2,5,8,2,2