Posted 04 January 2008 - 08:32 AM
I'm having trouble wording this correctly, so plz try to stay with me. lolThe villain has 3 basic options on this turn, depending on the strength of his hand, mostly.1) Bet turn, with the intention of putting in more bets - Naturally, this is done with his stronger made hands. Overpair, trips, straight, etc, where we can definitely stand a turn raise, and probably want to put in more action. Some bluffs will try to 3-barrel depending on the river as well.2) Bet turn, with the intention of checking behind on the river - Villain's range in this case probably includes a lot of pure bluffs/air type hands, and he's just firing a second barrel. It would also include some made, weaker hands, depending on our hero's tendencies. If hero plays straight forward, as villain, I'm betting this turn with hands that still have some value on the turn, and benefit from charging draws, getting calls from worse hands, etc. A hand like AK, 55, etc. These hands probably aren't strong enough to bet UI on most rivers, so the idea is to get them to SD cheaply, while extracting value from drawing hands. I'm also folding these hands to a raise vs straight forward players. This is essentially the last bet I put into the pot with my weaker made hands, and of course, with bluffs, I'm probably giving up on most rivers, depending on my reads.The problem is, DN is probably not a straight forward player. He's probably going to be tricky, and almost certainly has turn semi-bluffs and pure bluffs in his arsenal here. So, that brings us to villain's play in this specific hand.3) Check turn, with the intention of calling any river bet - The key for the villain here, is that he's going to have a hand with showdown value, but it can't really stand a raise, where we're probably going to have to duck a lot of outs vs a semi-bluff or even a pure bluff (which has 6 outs a lot), or we're way behind. So, instead of letting things get expensive, we just want to show this hand down, and hopefully let the hero in this hand value bet worse hands, or bluff with hands like K3o. Of course, it's still possible villain has just given up with his air, and will fold the river.For the most part though, aside from a small percentage of air that he will fold, villain is going to show up here with any Ace, smaller pocket pairs, maybe a hand like 78s that paired the 8 on the turn, etc. I'd expect his range, after his turn check, to be calling this river somewhere around 95% of the time.I love villain's play, and I don't even know what he held, lol.EDIT - I just wanted to add that villain should also probably call with some of the better kings as well as all of his ace-high hands here. DN's hand is almost never an ace high, with the exception of maybe some offsuit weak aces like A3, A4, so K high is practically the same as Ace high in this hand.
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
Zach is right about pretty much everything.