DanielNegreanu, on Monday, December 31st, 2007, 6:50 PM, said:
I understand Q8 isn't an easy hand to play, but IMO it's a little too good to justify folding. Here is a question: if you were all in for 25 more would you call or fold? Meaning, you call the SB and then check it down with four players, will you make a profit or not? Clearly I think the answer to that question is an astounding yes. So, the question lies in how well you play post flop.
To be clear, are you asserting that a superior post flop player should play all the hands that would break-even hot & cold? If so, I think this is a counter example:Villain open raises in early position with a range of nines or better and Ace Jack or better (99+,AJo+,AJs+) for 2.5BB.Folds to hero in the big blind holding the krablar (K3o). The hero is a 2.7 : 1 dog against his range. The pot is laying him 2.7 : 1.I think this is a clear fold against all but the weakest opponents (even considering the opportunity to do a stupid dance) for these reasons:
- The hero has poor position.
- The hero will have few opportunities to semibluff with this hand.
- The hero will have few opportunities to value bet with this hand.
The second and third point apply somewhat less to Q8o, but still significantly, imho.
For a bad player, they shouldn't play ANY hands really, as they'll likely make mistakes with every hand they play and lose more money than they would if they just fold every hand!
Even really bad players make money on big pairs. Bad players can make money on fewer
hands than good players, but it's unrealistic to expect them lose money on all their hands unless we're playing extraordinarily deep.
However, for a winning, capable player, it makes sense to call with the price in the hopes that you A) flop the best hand or B) are able to represent something on a ragged flop. I think all of the most successful players would call here with Q8 and not think twice about it.
I suspect that's true of live players. Every time they get involved is a chance to exploit tells. I know I'd be far more likely to play it live than online. I can assure you in either case that it would have absolutely nothing to do with 7 : 1 pot odds and everything to do with the desire to play a hand with a particular opponent.
Edited by David_Nicoson, 01 January 2008 - 08:16 AM.