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Trip Q's In A 3 Way Pot


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#41 CobaltBlue

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 09:37 AM

I used to fold this quite regularly from the small blind, but having loosened up my game, I think I complete it more frequently these days. Certainly I think you need to have a lot of trust in the game against these opponents to do it. Acid, you're saying to avoid it because we're going to lose money when we're dominated...but I think we'll be able to avoid losing much money when we're in bad shape. I mean, this situation could just as easily be a board of QQ8r65 where we stack UTG limping with KQ.On the end, I think I reluctantly call the river (assuming that I've got a default "no read"). I mean, I obviously hate it, cause it doesn't seem like there's much we beat, but I agree with the camp saying that we've completely underrepped our hand. UTG can be betting some pairs for value or as bluffs. It's probably not a good play, but it's possible. When the turn checks through, it really looks like no one has a queen to him.As for those of you that suggest he's not playing AA/KK like this (in checking the flop), why wouldn't he? He's already decided to be sneaky by limping in the first place...so he could be going WA/WB (just like Daniel's doing) on the flop.(I'm also disappointed that this got moved out of NL...can't we start a thread in 'Daniel On Strategy' where we link to other threads/sections on the forum?)

#42 Naismith

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 09:42 AM

View PostCobaltBlue, on Monday, December 31st, 2007, 9:37 AM, said:

(I'm also disappointed that this got moved out of NL...can't we start a thread in 'Daniel On Strategy' where we link to other threads/sections on the forum?)
I agree with this.
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#43 Acid_Knight

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 09:56 AM

View PostCobaltBlue, on Monday, December 31st, 2007, 9:37 AM, said:

Acid, you're saying to avoid it because we're going to lose money when we're dominated...but I think we'll be able to avoid losing much money when we're in bad shape. I mean, this situation could just as easily be a board of QQ8r65 where we stack UTG limping with KQ.
You're obviously right about stacking KQ or AQ on the QQ856 board.Let's just say that we make good decisions constantly and are never really stacking off or losing a ton of money where we shouldn't. Even if we lose just a couple of small bets (like this hand, calling the river or not) each time we play it and ARE dominated, I think that the number of singles that we give up with a hand like this is gonna pretty quickly outweight the homeruns that we are able to finally connect with.I'm just being really picky here. If it were Q8s, I'd complete it. If it were Q9o, I'd complete it. For me, there are just enough gaps between the cards and not enough potential to play it. I guess some people can manage to play hands like this out of the SB, but I think for almost everyone else out there, folding preflop is the most +EV decision to make here.Marchant - How do you advocate calling even though you admit that there's really nothing that we can beat? The 2.5-1 pot odds aren't great or anything if we're going to assume that the only thing we are going to win against is AA or KK that chose to value bet the river. I don't think that makes up 30% of his range.

#44 Sheiky

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 10:40 AM

I would have called.I don't think UTG on a shortstack is playing a strong hand this way, i also think that there's a high chance he's betting the river with air given that lack of action on previous street. And if it's the guy i'm thinking off, or any shortstacker, there's a high chance he'll try and bluff DN out of a hand at the cost of $400.Why are people discounting mid-low PPs from his range? He played this exactly how a lot of people would play 99-55.

#45 AimHigher

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 10:41 AM

View PostCobaltBlue, on Monday, December 31st, 2007, 5:37 PM, said:

(I'm also disappointed that this got moved out of NL...can't we start a thread in 'Daniel On Strategy' where we link to other threads/sections on the forum?)
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#46 irishguy

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 10:54 AM

View PostSheiky, on Monday, December 31st, 2007, 10:40 AM, said:

I would have called.I don't think UTG on a shortstack is playing a strong hand this way, i also think that there's a high chance he's betting the river with air given that lack of action on previous street. And if it's the guy i'm thinking off, or any shortstacker, there's a high chance he'll try and bluff DN out of a hand at the cost of $400.Why are people discounting mid-low PPs from his range? He played this exactly how a lot of people would play 99-55.
Check calling the button with and a mid pair etc would make sense. But over calling with a mid pair is very unlikely imo. I think this hand plays outexactly like a stronger hand would. The turn check with two others in the pot smells a lot more like better queen/ boat then it does AA, KK
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#47 sactownjoey

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 11:01 AM

View PostSheiky, on Monday, December 31st, 2007, 10:40 AM, said:

I would have called.I don't think UTG on a shortstack is playing a strong hand this way, i also think that there's a high chance he's betting the river with air given that lack of action on previous street. And if it's the guy i'm thinking off, or any shortstacker, there's a high chance he'll try and bluff DN out of a hand at the cost of $400.Why are people discounting mid-low PPs from his range? He played this exactly how a lot of people would play 99-55.
This was my first thought given lack of action. I also think you have to lead on the turn.

#48 CobaltBlue

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 12:50 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Monday, December 31st, 2007, 11:56 AM, said:

I'm just being really picky here. If it were Q8s, I'd complete it. If it were Q9o, I'd complete it. For me, there are just enough gaps between the cards and not enough potential to play it. I guess some people can manage to play hands like this out of the SB, but I think for almost everyone else out there, folding preflop is the most +EV decision to make here.Marchant - How do you advocate calling even though you admit that there's really nothing that we can beat? The 2.5-1 pot odds aren't great or anything if we're going to assume that the only thing we are going to win against is AA or KK that chose to value bet the river. I don't think that makes up 30% of his range.
I certainly see your point. If it's Q7o, I probably toss. So it's a very miniscule baby step. And, I don't disagree that for the vast majority of players (and even a lot of good players), it's the least -EV to dump it pre.There are some things that we can beat (or tie) that have been noted...AA/KK, Q9s, middle pairs. If the action had gone down differently where we'd clearly repped our hand, then I think we could make a more informed decision. I don't get why y'all are so discounting the middle pairs. They're not "likely", but they're possible. UTG could've viewed the action on the flop as button taking a stab with air and Daniel calling with a 4. Once the turn checks through, he's making a 'value-bluff'.I mean, I actually kind of like the way Daniel played it. In fact, I'm really roughly 50/50 on calling or folding this river. I think it's a close decision based on the factors I said. If we had something in the way of reads, I think we can sway the decision.

#49 Royal_Tour

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 01:14 PM

I still dont know how this isnt a call.the turn is a big indicator that no one has anything. (or at least, this is how it would be viewed from an outsider)DN checks the river. The shortstack, who realizes this is a small pot, that no one seems very interested in decides to make a large bet, but not too large so it doesnt look like a straight steal. and why not? If he missed completely and has no show down value he might think he needs to make a bet.although i have no idea what he would call the flop with. except a pair or a Q... so...fold?



#50 Sheiky

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 01:21 PM

Who knows how shortstackers think?

#51 DanielNegreanu

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 03:50 PM

I understand Q8 isn't an easy hand to play, but IMO it's a little too good to justify folding. Here is a question: if you were all in for 25 more would you call or fold? Meaning, you call the SB and then check it down with four players, will you make a profit or not? Clearly I think the answer to that question is an astounding yes. So, the question lies in how well you play post flop. For a bad player, they shouldn't play ANY hands really, as they'll likely make mistakes with every hand they play and lose more money than they would if they just fold every hand! However, for a winning, capable player, it makes sense to call with the price in the hopes that you A) flop the best hand or B) are able to represent something on a ragged flop. I think all of the most successful players would call here with Q8 and not think twice about it.
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#52 Naismith

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 05:11 PM

View PostDanielNegreanu, on Monday, December 31st, 2007, 3:50 PM, said:

For a bad player, they shouldn't play ANY hands really
This made me chuckle. :)Dan, do you use Poker Tracker? If so, can you filter it so it shows your profit in the blinds? If you don't use PT, would you consider getting it and trying it for a month to see what it says?
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#53 BoostedJ

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 05:22 PM

View PostMoneyball16, on Sunday, December 30th, 2007, 9:39 PM, said:

I don't know how much credit to give to this read, but I find that with UTG stack, which at 45bb, is often a good sign that someone is kind of a donk, atleast at the lower levels. Unless its a shorty that doubled up most of the better players seem to have atleast 100bb or they're a shorty with something around 20bb. Again this isn't definite but I think it makes it more like that he could have a hand that he either shouldn't be calling the flop with or a hand he shouldn't be betting the river with.Im still not sure if that turns this into a call or not cause like others have said the only hands that we should be beating are AA or KK.
Daniel instant messaged me to come check this hand out, and maybe I'll stop by a little more often to include my thoughts. Preflop is a standard limp for me with a hand like Q8. I think I outplay people a lot more than other people can outplay me in unraised pots. With that said, I think the difference between Q8 and Q7 here is pretty big given the straight possibility with Q8. On the flop I would check almost every time but might lead with bigger Q's like KQ or AQ. If I lead the flop and get raised, I call, and then if I face a big bet on the turn with a hand like Q8-QJ I dont feel too good, whereas with KQ/AQ it's much easier to call down as there is a significant value difference between Q8-QJ and KQ/AQ on this board. I dont like to check-raise here because that builds the pot when there's no reason to since it'd be sick to get lots of value from worse hands, we're out of position, and there's no draws. The guy who overcalls usually means a Q, I think 444 raises a lot here but is also capable of calling as well as 55-JJ peeling for two outs. I expect the Turn to be checked a lot and that's what happened, I'm actually pretty happy about this. However the Turn and the River complete 2 of those pocket pairs that might peel although fairly unlikely so I'm not thrilled about that. Although 89 and AK makes straights I'm not concerned about that either. I dont like to bet the river either because I dont know what would call me that I would beat, especially into two players where a lot of flop strength was shown. Overall, I think DN's play is good here and I'd play it the exact same except maybeeeeeee call once in a while on the river against an unknown UTG, if I know him then i dont even bother calling. But I'd like to call to get a feel for his timing tells with what he had and how he actually plays whatever kind of hand he had since it's cheap information.
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#54 DanielNegreanu

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 05:31 PM

Smart kid this BoostedJ... :-) Y'all can learn a lot from him.
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#55 Acid_Knight

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 05:50 PM

View PostDanielNegreanu, on Monday, December 31st, 2007, 5:31 PM, said:

Smart kid this BoostedJ... :-) Y'all can learn a lot from him.
You recruited him to post in your thread, so you have to agree with him :)It is a very good post by BoostedJ.DN - Your other post about calling the all-in is a valid point and it's certainly an instacall for $25 to see the next 5 cards. I think that if you're that confident that Q8o in the SB will be profitable for you here, or even oEV, which helps balance ranges, then go for it. To everyone else here, I'm sure that folding Q8o should usually be the more standard play.

#56 David_Nicoson

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Posted 31 December 2007 - 11:15 PM

Can anybody back up a belief in a positive result with Q8o in the SB in full ring NL with results from 100 hands or more? If so, do you play it on the button?
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#57 David_Nicoson

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Posted 01 January 2008 - 12:16 AM

View PostDanielNegreanu, on Monday, December 31st, 2007, 6:50 PM, said:

I understand Q8 isn't an easy hand to play, but IMO it's a little too good to justify folding. Here is a question: if you were all in for 25 more would you call or fold? Meaning, you call the SB and then check it down with four players, will you make a profit or not? Clearly I think the answer to that question is an astounding yes. So, the question lies in how well you play post flop.
To be clear, are you asserting that a superior post flop player should play all the hands that would break-even hot & cold? If so, I think this is a counter example:Villain open raises in early position with a range of nines or better and Ace Jack or better (99+,AJo+,AJs+) for 2.5BB.Folds to hero in the big blind holding the krablar (K3o). The hero is a 2.7 : 1 dog against his range. The pot is laying him 2.7 : 1.I think this is a clear fold against all but the weakest opponents (even considering the opportunity to do a stupid dance) for these reasons:
  • The hero has poor position.
  • The hero will have few opportunities to semibluff with this hand.
  • The hero will have few opportunities to value bet with this hand.
The second and third point apply somewhat less to Q8o, but still significantly, imho.

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For a bad player, they shouldn't play ANY hands really, as they'll likely make mistakes with every hand they play and lose more money than they would if they just fold every hand!
Even really bad players make money on big pairs. Bad players can make money on fewer hands than good players, but it's unrealistic to expect them lose money on all their hands unless we're playing extraordinarily deep.

Quote

However, for a winning, capable player, it makes sense to call with the price in the hopes that you A) flop the best hand or B) are able to represent something on a ragged flop. I think all of the most successful players would call here with Q8 and not think twice about it.
I suspect that's true of live players. Every time they get involved is a chance to exploit tells. I know I'd be far more likely to play it live than online. I can assure you in either case that it would have absolutely nothing to do with 7 : 1 pot odds and everything to do with the desire to play a hand with a particular opponent.

Edited by David_Nicoson, 01 January 2008 - 08:16 AM.

QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
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#58 ShadowKill

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Posted 01 January 2008 - 01:00 AM

View PostAndyZ28, on Sunday, December 30th, 2007, 11:04 PM, said:

I believe I would have lead the turn. As played, I think I would have had to call down the river even if just find out what he's limping with UTG. Is there a chance he limped with a suited A4 and figured 2 pair with an ace was good? I don't know who the hell would limp UTG with A4, but it happens.
I really don't think you can flat call the flop bet and then lead right out on the turn. It doesn't make any sense. You would be better off raising the flop if you were going to lead out on the turn because then you would gain a lot more information from villain's reactions. I'm not endorsing a raise on the flop by any means, only saying that a lead out on the turn after c/calling the flop is a bit disingenuous. Also, is there any merit in leading the river after the c/c/c on the turn for a small amount and then folding if raised?

#59 knoxxxy

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Posted 01 January 2008 - 01:10 AM

i don't like this call preflop......the only reason i call here every now and again will be to mix up my play, but for straight up value i think its bad.How do you expect to make profit from this?Your theory is if you play this hand 7 times, your postflop skills are obviously good enough to win it once, thus breaking even or better. But you're problem is your never going to win a big pot, unless you get a freak flop like Q-8-4, Q-Q-8, 8-8-Q, that is just too unlikely and then to get action aswell.Sure you can get a flop like 8-4-2, but once again...you won't win a big pot here, u'll either just pickup the 200 pot, or run into an overpair, a set, or whatever...which is alot more likely with the UTG limper....(but you didnt give us a read on him). Thats just another flop like the one that came (Q-Q-4) where you are going to just pickup the 200 pot or throw away some extra chips.So you paid $25 hoping to be able to pickoff a $175 pot......but ironically the hand ended up costing you exactly an extra $175. Which WILL happen 1 in 7 times i'm afraid, either just from you making a bluff trying to pickup the pot, or getting a small piece of it and playing it out like you did.So let me get this straight:- You have a hand where your not even happy with flopping 3 of a kind- With an UTG limper- 3 other players in the hand- Out of positionwhy bother playing it? WHY!?!Just pick a better spot, this isnt a tournament...the blinds aren't rising....patience.....Just because you have good postflop skills does not mean you should pick horrible spots, you will have plenty more opportunities, just pick a better spot and use your great postflop skills there where you are going to be more profitable more often :)Anyway thats just what i think, but like i said......if you're just trying to mix up your play thats fine.....and post flop i think you played it perfectly, i agree with your check on the turn for the reasons you said.That is all

#60 Royal_Tour

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Posted 01 January 2008 - 01:54 AM

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Monday, December 31st, 2007, 11:15 PM, said:

Can anybody back up a belief in a positive result with Q8o in the SB in full ring NL with results from 100 hands or more? If so, do you play it on the button?
the idea isnt to play Q8o as a premium hand. its the fact that we already have 1/2 the bet required to see a flop in, and we're being offered 7-1 on the other half.Not really the same idea as playing it from other positions






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