134 replies to this topic

[DanielNegreanu]

I'm new to this converter deal, how would you have played the Q8?PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)MP1 ($925)MP2 ($4569)MP3 ($15524.50)CO ($7791)Button ($9538)Hero ($12126)BB ($5075)UTG ($2272)UTG+1 ($5593)Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, Q. UTG calls $50, 5 folds, Button calls $50, Hero completes, BB checks.Flop: ($200) Q, Q, 4 (4 players)Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Button bets $150, Hero calls $150, BB folds, UTG calls $150.Turn: ($650) T (3 players)Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks.River: ($650) J (3 players)Hero checks, UTG bets $400, Button folds, Hero folds.Final Pot: $650

[Zach6668]

lol Daniel. Ty for converting. :)I think, if I'm playing this hand as passive as you did, I'm calling the river closing the action.

[krup24]

i lead the flop a lot at lower stakes. here i understand the deception factor so i think the check is ok. now that we are at the turn i definitely take the lead the UTG caller suprised me and i think i wanna get an idea of where i'm at. since the turn goes c/c/c i would plan on c/calling most all river bets including this one. your obv putting villian on 44 TT or bigger Q which are all possible holdings with the UTG limp and c/call on flop, lead river. i'm guessing this is almost ur exclusive range for this line and that is why you folded. i'm not quite good enough to fold this c/f this river.

[DanielNegreanu]

Zach6668, on Sunday, December 30th, 2007, 6:18 PM, said:

lol Daniel. Ty for converting. :)I think, if I'm playing this hand as passive as you did, I'm calling the river closing the action.

If you are calling, what hand can you put the UTG limper on that you can beat after he makes an over call on the flop and then bets the river? Do you really think he has A4? Possibly AA? If he has a Q, could his kicker possibly NOT play with the board reading J-10? I could tie Q-9, but would he limp with Q-9 in a full ring game UTG? How often do you think you'll make this call and win the pot? How often will you chop, and how often will you be beat?

[simo_8ball]

A read on UTG would be good. Given that he's shortstacking I'm assuming he's not a reg at those stakes.Given your penchant for playing passive with a huge range I like the flop play. You're repping a 4 mostly and button has a huge range. He probably has nothing and you can continue to check/call down (and he'll probably put you on king high or some random weak junk).UTG's overcall there *could* be something like 77/88, and it *could* be AA/KK trap gone wrong, but other than that his range is strongly centred around QJ/QT/Q9/44. Had he been open limping much? AQ raises preflop, KQ too (probably).I can't really think of a hand you beat on the river. You split with Q9 now, which is a reasonable possibility. Would he limp with low Q-X's?Meh, I probably pay it off for $400.

[krup24]

DanielNegreanu, on Sunday, December 30th, 2007, 9:25 PM, said:

How often do you think you'll make this call and win the pot? How often will you chop, and how often will you be beat?

15/2/83

[David_Nicoson]

Fold preflop?I think it's pretty clear that we're behind when UTG flat calls the flop. Does UTG limp with big pairs? That seems like the only thing that he can call with that we beat.

[Zach6668]

DanielNegreanu, on Sunday, December 30th, 2007, 9:25 PM, said:

If you are calling, what hand can you put the UTG limper on that you can beat after he makes an over call on the flop and then bets the river? Do you really think he has A4? Possibly AA? If he has a Q, could his kicker possibly NOT play with the board reading J-10? I could tie Q-9, but would he limp with Q-9 in a full ring game UTG? How often do you think you'll make this call and win the pot? How often will you chop, and how often will you be beat?

Eh, that's a good point, I suppose. NL is clearly nowhere near my strongest game. Maybe stick to the LHE hands, plz. :PSeriously though, hmmm. I guess AA would be a possibility. It just feels like there wasn't enough action for us to be sure we're behind, since we've under repped our own hand so much.We need to be ahead on this river 38% of the time to breakeven, for what it's worth.We chop with every Q worse than ours, but I'd say most/all of those are unlikely. We do beat AA and random bluffs. I doubt in a 3-way pot he'd be trying to v-bet a hand like A4 or 77 or something.You're probably right here. It's really hard to assign a range to an unknown here, IMO. Some reads on his UTG limping range would be so helpful. I don't think he shows up with TT or JJ, although it's a reasonable way to play either of them postflop, I just doubt he limps them preflop, so I'll ignore them. 44 is possible, AA if he was looking to limp reraise, QJs, QTs, Q9s (maybe), KQ, AQ are all possible, and of course, we lose to all of those and tie one. We even lose to AK now, although it's unlikely given flop action. Meh, it's really hard to find a reasonable hand we're ahead of.Given that range (excluding hands I've ruled out or deemed unlikely):

Board: Qh Qc 4d Ts JsDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	40.625%	  37.50% 	03.13% 				 6 			0.50   { Qs8h }Hand 1: 	59.375%	  56.25% 	03.13% 				 9 			0.50   { AA, 44, KQs, Q9s+, KQo

We've actually got enough equity to call here, but that assumes he plays AA this way. That's the hand that really swings the numbers, since the combos of Qx hands are so small. If we say he limps AA say 1/3 of the time, we actually fall down to 20% equity. So basically, it's probably a fold overall.Ok, I'm down with the fold after my analysis.And, one more thing, on preflop, as was mentioned before, what about folding preflop? I realize someone with superior postflop skills can play more hands postflop, but if we're flopping three queens and not really thrilled about it, I'm not really sure I want to play Q8o out of position. What kind of flop and action were you looking for? It seems, with our thinking in this particular hand, that when you do hit a flop with Q8, we're probably only getting a lot of action from worse hands. Agree?

[Zach6668]

PS - I'm loving the strategy posts, Daniel. Please keep them coming. Thank you.

[Acid_Knight]

I agree with folding preflop being best. Hands like this just don't play well OOP and we're gonna get into trouble more often than not I think. If you had Q9 or Q8s that flops a little better, I would like it more. I'm pretty sure you're not giving up an ounce of EV by folding this preflop.UTG overcalling the flop bet seems like a lot of trouble. If we make the reasonable assumption that he's either got a better Q or a good pair (99+) here most of the time, then I think folding the river is best.Also, Zach, you really should include JJ and TT in there since they seem to make more sense than any hand for playing like this. I mean, the chance that he's bluffing with any kind of air-type hands after overcalling the flop is really unlikely.

[Zach6668]

Adjusting to my "NL mind" is so hard after focusing on LHE for so long.

[Royal_Tour]

DanielNegreanu, on Sunday, December 30th, 2007, 6:13 PM, said:

I'm new to this converter deal, how would you have played the Q8?PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)MP1 ($925)MP2 ($4569)MP3 ($15524.50)CO ($7791)Button ($9538)Hero ($12126)BB ($5075)UTG ($2272)UTG+1 ($5593)Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, Q. UTG calls $50, 5 folds, Button calls $50, Hero completes, BB checks.Flop: ($200) Q, Q, 4 (4 players)Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Button bets $150, Hero calls $150, BB folds, UTG calls $150.Turn: ($650) T (3 players)Hero checks, UTG checks, Button checks.River: ($650) J (3 players)Hero checks, UTG bets $400, Button folds, Hero folds.Final Pot: $650

I dont mind completing the sb. too many people here focus on folding and saving bets. in multitabling cases i agree. playing 1 or 2 or 3 tables. I dont mind the occasional completion with mediocre hands. I check.-call the flop just like played.but i lead the turn. just like what happened, we run the risk of it checking through.This is an odd situation because UTG limped, and only smooth called the flop after a bet and call. I`m starting to think he doesnt hold a weak Q. I lean toward a KQ or AQ. but would he limp those UTG.... has he been playing tight.. if so, is limping KK and AA in his arsenal...without that info, i lean towards a call because of his range. The turn checked through, you checked the river, so he eliminated a Q from both your holdings, and value bets AA, KK...

[Acid_Knight]

Royal_Tour, on Sunday, December 30th, 2007, 8:17 PM, said:

I dont mind completing the sb. too many people here focus on folding and saving bets. in multitabling cases i agree. playing 1 or 2 or 3 tables. I dont mind the occasional completion with mediocre hands. I check.-call the flop just like played.but i lead the turn. just like what happened, we run the risk of it checking through.This is an odd situation because UTG limped, and only smooth called the flop after a bet and call. I`m starting to think he doesnt hold a weak Q. I lean toward a KQ or AQ. but would he limp those UTG.... has he been playing tight.. if so, is limping KK and AA in his arsenal...without that info, i lean towards a call because of his range. The turn checked through, you checked the river, so he eliminated a Q from both your holdings, and value bets AA, KK...

That scenario with KK or AA is the ONLY scenario where we're ever really ahead here. So much more of his range is made up of a better Qx, JJ, TT and 44.Also, if completing the SB with Q8o when MTing is a leak, then it's a leak at 1 table as well.

[AndyZ28]

I believe I would have lead the turn. As played, I think I would have had to call down the river even if just find out what he's limping with UTG. Is there a chance he limped with a suited A4 and figured 2 pair with an ace was good? I don't know who the hell would limp UTG with A4, but it happens.

[Acid_Knight]

AndyZ28, on Sunday, December 30th, 2007, 9:04 PM, said:

I believe I would have lead the turn. As played, I think I would have had to call down the river even if just find out what he's limping with UTG. Is there a chance he limped with a suited A4 and figured 2 pair with an ace was good? I don't know who the hell would limp UTG with A4, but it happens.

He limped. He overcalled a bet on that flop and now he's apparently value betting the river into 2 people. I would give 1000-1 that this is NOT A4 for value.

[DanielNegreanu]

I would never recommend folding this for 1/2 a bet from the SB in a limped pot. This is an unlikely situation, the way it played out, but that doesn't mean putting in $25 is a losing play. It isn't. As for not leading the turn, I had already decided that if I checked and there was a bet from one of the other players in the pot that it would be highly likely that one of them had me beat, no question about it. Rather than pay a bet on the turn to find out where I'm at, I can check and pay attention to the action and accomplish the same thing, only cheaper.

[AndyZ28]

Acid_Knight, on Sunday, December 30th, 2007, 11:12 PM, said:

He limped. He overcalled a bet on that flop and now he's apparently value betting the river into 2 people. I would give 1000-1 that this is NOT A4 for value.

I didn't mean that as I'm certain he's VBing with A4 on the river. I just simply asked if it was a possibility? At NL50BB I would hope that that wouldn't happen, but what do I know? The more I think about this hand, the more I get confused. As played, I'd still call the river just out of curiosity and expect to be beaten with a better Q. I would have folded preflop though. I don't like playing hands like Q8os OOP, but I'm no flop master like DN either.

[Bubba83]

Without reading replies...I play preflop the same.I vary what I do on the flop, sometimes leading out for $150, sometimes check/calling, rarely check/raising.Since UTG overcalled on a flop that contains no drawing possibilities, I would lead the turn because I want to find out where I am at against UTG's hand. Also, Button could now have a draw with a hand like KJ that I don't want him checking behind, since for all we know Button could easily have just tried to pick up the pot on the flop in which case he will not follow through with a bet on the turn. Given how the flop was played, I lead for about $400 on the turn in that situation.The rest of the hand changes too much based on the $400 lead I would make depending on what the opponents do, so I can't comment on the river in that situation.As played with the turn checking through, I like the river fold unless you have a read on UTG that he limps some marginal hands UTG like A4, or a queen less than or equal to Q9, also if he often limps KK or AA your hand might be good, but it costs a lot into what turned out to be a rather small pot to find out...Edit: I'm with everyone else on the give us some reads thing, even if you've only played with your villains for an hour you should have some small understanding of how they play. Without reads, it's really hard to gauge how strong UTG might be.

[David_Nicoson]

DanielNegreanu, on Monday, December 31st, 2007, 12:19 AM, said:

I would never recommend folding this for 1/2 a bet from the SB in a limped pot. This is an unlikely situation, the way it played out, but that doesn't mean putting in $25 is a losing play. It isn't.

I think the important issue is the relative skill of the players involved in the hand. The question is, can I take this marginal hand and play it out of position for a profit after the flop? If the stacks are very short or we're playing structured limit, then I care about preflop pot odds. Here, though, they're nearly a non-issue.

[Moneyball16]

I don't know how much credit to give to this read, but I find that with UTG stack, which at 45bb, is often a good sign that someone is kind of a donk, atleast at the lower levels. Unless its a shorty that doubled up most of the better players seem to have atleast 100bb or they're a shorty with something around 20bb. Again this isn't definite but I think it makes it more like that he could have a hand that he either shouldn't be calling the flop with or a hand he shouldn't be betting the river with.Im still not sure if that turns this into a call or not cause like others have said the only hands that we should be beating are AA or KK.