Pick A Line

[Naismith 0]

My poker tracker datamined stats tell me that our villain runs 25/20/3.5 through about 500 hands. This is really early in the session, maybe the 20th hand or so.I had NOT been active at all. First hand I sat, I re-raised preflop and bet the flop when my AQ flopped the nut and second nut overs to the 9-high board. The second hand, I completed the SB with 88 and took a nice pot. Fourth hand, I raised and was re-raised and folded. I raised one more hand. Hmmm. Okay, just found two more.Ignore what I said about not being active. By this hand, the 20th hand or so, I had re-raised, won a decent pot with 88, raised five more hands including one where I got re-raised and folded. I don't think I'd played with the villain before, but I'm not 100 percent certain.No Limit Holdem Ring gameBlinds: $2/$45 playersConverterStack sizes:UTG: $330.30CO: $482Button: $841.90SB: $855.80Hero: $929Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with 9 J 2 folds, Button raises to $16, SB folds, Hero raises to $48, Button calls.Flop: 8 4 9 ($98, 2 players)Hero bets...?What's our line? What's our plan if we bet and he calls?

[Acid_Knight 2]

Open fold or open shove.Let me read the OP now.

[tskillz187 0]

Bet/3bet flop? C/R flop, lead turn? I think I like C/R and lead turn more. If he calls your 3bet on the flop then you have to put in a turn bet too, and that would suck.

[Acid_Knight 2]

What do you feel his range is for calling your preflop raise with? Will he ever flat call with TT+ here?Sometimes I c/r this flop if they're really aggro because it really shuts them down a lot more and it makes it harder for them to float you and stuff. I'd mix that in about 20% of the time (provided villain is aggro enough to stab at it) and just lead out the other 80%.

[Naismith 0]

The only real information I have on him is from datamining and I'm still not very good at using that information. Are there any stats I should be looking at for this specific situation?

[Acid_Knight 2]

The only real information I have on him is from datamining and I'm still not very good at using that information. Are there any stats I should be looking at for this specific situation?

If you have a meaningful sample, their bb/100 is useful to see if they're actually winning or not. I mean, mostly datamining just gives you a rough idea of what they're gonna do.I dont' know how it plays out on sites where you can start with 200BBs, but msotly with 100BB stacks, if you 3 bet from the blinds and are called, the player in position almost always has something like a middle pair or 2 big cards. This flop isn't going to help many of those hands, but you will get floated by middle pairs a lot. That's kind of why I like the c/r because it really helps define their hand more since it gets a bet out of the middle pairs or big cards and then defines their hand.

[Killrus 0]

is this being played at seminole?

[TB17 0]

C/R is very interesting. I'll bet/double barrel a lot here, I'll make it 75 on the flop at least, if he calls, 175-200 on the turn. I'm probably done on the flop if he raises depending ont he size of the raise

[Zach6668 513]

is this being played at seminole?

Yes.Jay has set up an intricate system to datamine PokerTracker stats from the B&M. It's groundbreaking, really.

[Naismith 0]

is this being played at seminole?

No, this is online. Seminole is the worst play on earth.

[simo_8ball 1]

I always spew in these situations. I stack off and villain can't see that his TT cannot ever be good. Well, apart from this time.I vote bet/call, check/raise. If he checks back on the turn fire big on the river.As I say, I stack off way too often here repping AA. It's why I play PLO now - I have the hands I rep more often.

[Naismith 0]

It's why I play PLO now - I have the hands I rep more often.

And if you don't, you're not really a big dog.

[simo_8ball 1]

And if you don't, you're not really a big dog.

Meh, not if you turn AKKQ into a total bluff on an 892r flop against a guy you know has AAxx for a 5 buyin pot. I can still spew real good in omaha.More seriously, this hand helps a ton if you have reads on his play. Against an unknown I would assume his range includes some good suited connectors, most pairs to JJ and maybe AK/AQ/KQ.With a read I wouldn't mind c/c flop and lead turn or something goofy like that.Absent reads I quite like the idea of a checkraise, even though you are turning your hand into a value bluff (you're probably better doing this with AK or KQ than with J9). Are you bluffing TT? Getting value from T9?Standard is to bet/fold $80, and bet/fold $180 on most turns. I don't think you'll lose too much overall by doing that compared to any other line.

[TheWanderer 0]

Just bet and try to get it in.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Look at y'all getting all fancy with check-raises...s'an interesting idea, and I don't hate it. Playing more straight-forward, I bet $65-80 here, though part of that's going to depend on whether villain is going to view particular bet-sizes as weak. If I can "trust" his raises, I probably let it go on the flop. My line on the turn depends on the card and whether villain needs to see two barrels to make decisions.