3 replies to this topic

[fakepoo]

Hello all, this is my first post and I just wanted to get some input about a hand that I played in a live cash game.

Game: $2-$5 blinds No-Limit Hold'em, 6-handed

Stack Sizes: Just sat down at a newly created table with unfamiliar faces
Me: $400
Player A: $300

I am dealt As-10h in BB.

Action: Player A raises to $15.

My Thoughts: I have never played a hand with this person so I have no background information.

Action: I call to see the flop. Pot size: $32

Flop: Qd-Js-9s

My Thoughts: Open-ended straight draw gives me a nice draw and I would not mind taking it down if Player A missed.

Action: I bet $20. Player A raises to $50

My Thoughts: At this point I am pretty sure that he has hit the flop, maybe Q-J or a set, possibly top pair with a straight or flush draw to go with it.

Action: I call. Pot size: ~$130

Turn: 8c

My Thoughts: I just made my straight and I would like to suck him in for a check-raise.

Action: I check, he bets $30, I raise to $100, he reraises all-in for another ~$130 on top.

My Thoughts: What could he have? My guess is that he also has to have the straight now and possibly the nuts. So, now, here is the tricky part. I got myself into this mess and the question is, should I call or fold?

Pot size: $390
Price to call: $130
Pot Odds: 3 to 1

His possible holdings: K-10, 10-8, Q-10, J-10(maybe), A-10(maybe), QQ/JJ/99(probably not)

My goal here is to calculate the likely-hood of each of these holdings and the odds of me winning the pot (considering that one card is still to come). Could someone walk me through this please?

[KevinFKHS]

Well you're ahead of everything except for KT, and you're freerolling a lot of the time I guess, so I instacall this, especially getting 3-1 because one out of 4 times you'll probably have him beat if a blank falls on the river.

[Acid_Knight]

Thoughts:
This isn't really a pot odds question. You really don't need to calculate odds here, just shovel in your chips.
You really shouldn't bother doing a complicated hand distribution analysis when you're calling anyway in what is a pretty simple and straightforward situation.

Also, welcome to the forums
Nice format for the 1st post.

[David_Nicoson]

Pokerstove can help you answer this sort of question based on strictly combinations. You can tweak your results a bit if you think some holdings wouldn't play that way.

Oh, and call.