Facing An Allin Bet On River With A Set

[Moneyball16 0]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)No reads, new to table.SB ($97.50)BB ($43.15)UTG ($139.70)UTG+1 ($55.65)MP1 ($48.35)Moneyball ($98.50)CO ($116.35)Button ($55)Preflop: Moneyball is MP2 with 6 , 6 . 2 folds, MP1 calls $1, Moneyball raises to $4.5, 2 folds, SB calls $4, 1 fold, MP1 calls $3.50.Flop: ($14.50) 4 , 3 , 8 (3 players)SB checks, MP1 checks, Moneyball bets $13.8, SB calls $13.80, MP1 folds.Turn: ($42.10) 6 (2 players)SB checks, Moneyball bets $27, SB calls $27.River: ($96.10) 5 (2 players)SB bets $52.2 (All-In), Moneyball calls $52.20.Final Pot: $200.50The guys river bet was instant, which some people from the challenge thread say is often a bluff, but Im not so sure how much weight I should put into that.Does this guy have a weaker hand enough to call here? Need to be good about 1/4 of the time to make it correct.I think the rest of the hand is standard, but be welcome to comment on the whole hand.

[No_Neck 0]

i bet like $38 on the turn and call a shove, can't fold the river he could be on missed hearts!Any reads?

[Moneyball16 0]

No reads, new to table.

[mtdesmoines 2]

Does this guy have a weaker hand enough to call here? Need to be good about 1/4 of the time to make it correct.I think the rest of the hand is standard, but be welcome to comment on the whole hand.

The PF action tells me the guy doesn't have a straight.

[gfdsa146 0]

Agree with No Neck, turn could have been bet a little harder.

[Acid_Knight 2]

This guy should show up with 2 pair or a lower set (both of which should be good against your hand, which easily looks like an overpair) here more than enough to profitably call this. Also throw in some missed draws and you're looking at a very +EV call I think.He could have A7hh. I don't see any straights beating you unless he backed into it after missing a heart draw.

[LJB723 0]

I call, but disagree that he never has the straight, does 77 not play this hand similarly?

[2pair05 0]

I call, but disagree that he never has the straight, does 77 not play this hand similarly?

with a new player at table pushing action pf , i would call with suited connectors so i see a straight here. also there is the 7-7 .

[Orion071 0]

I call, but disagree that he never has the straight, does 77 not play this hand similarly?

Is 7-7 seriously going to flat call both of those big bets on the flop and turn? With what? A bad pair and a gutshot? The only straight that I could see would be Ah7h. I've seen enough busted flushes make this bet that I'd have to call.

[NoBBiR 0]

i bet like $38 on the turn and call a shove, can't fold the river he could be on missed hearts!Any reads?

Hearts with a 7

This guy should show up with 2 pair or a lower set (both of which should be good against your hand, which easily looks like an overpair) here more than enough to profitably call this. Also throw in some missed draws and you're looking at a very +EV call I think.He could have A7hh. I don't see any straights beating you unless he backed into it after missing a heart draw.

This man is as smart as they come.

[StilettoNole 0]

I agree that a call is in order here. I think it is pretty unlikely that he has a straight unless he backed into it from the flush. I don't think 7-7 is too likely (although its not entirely impossible).I agree that a little harder bet on the turn would be correct. The six is great for you, but does adds some draws (that ironically got completed), so betting a little heavier here is correct.OK, basically I agree with everything that was said before.

[Moneyball16 0]

I disagree that I should bet the turn harder. Assuming that he has A7 of hearts on the turn and that I will play off any heart or 5 river and assuming that he will go broke on the 6 and 3 of hearts he is losing money by calling the 27 dollar turn bet.11 out of 44 he is +$1032 out of 44 he is -$97.531 out of 44 he is -$45.3This averages out at -$10.60 per hand.This also doesn't even count the times when he loses even more money at least a percentage of the time on a A river. Also since rake isn't included his wins will be about 3 dollars smaller.I may have made a mistake with the math, but I don't think so.I haven't done the math for if he has A5hh on the turn and I might if someone asks for it, but even then he is much less likely imo to c/c the flop with A5hh than A7hh since he would also have a gutshot on the flop with A5hh.I know with A7hh he would probably withstand a bigger turn bet, but I dont think if I bet pot on the turn that all naked flush draws are calling or even enough to make it more profitable than a 2/3 bet on turn. I also think that against made hands a 2/3 bet on turn and 1/2 bet on river is paid off more than a pot sized bet on turn and a 1/3 bet on the river.

[Moneyball16 0]

He was bluffing with AQhh. How much weight do you guys give to the possible click tell of the instantaneous allin?Would you call here with AA?

[No_Neck 0]

He was bluffing with AQhh. How much weight do you guys give to the possible click tell of the instantaneous allin?Would you call here with AA?

insta allins I have found a lot of the time are bluffs. Here is the thing, most of the time you are going to have to think about how much to bet, so if you just instantly push it really doesn't make sense sometimes.

[David_Nicoson 1]

I disagree that I should bet the turn harder. Assuming that he has A7 of hearts on the turn and that I will play off any heart or 5 river and assuming that he will go broke on the 6 and 3 of hearts he is losing money by calling the 27 dollar turn bet.11 out of 44 he is +$1032 out of 44 he is -$97.531 out of 44 he is -$45.3This averages out at -$10.60 per hand.

You know that, but he doesn't. He thinks 6 and 3 are winners for him. He thinks an ace might be a winner. (Or in the case of the A Q , a queen but not 6x.) He's in a position where he might very well make a bigger mistake. I like a pot-sized bet on the turn.

Also since rake isn't included his wins will be about 3 dollars smaller.

Here be dragons.

I know with A7hh he would probably withstand a bigger turn bet, but I dont think if I bet pot on the turn that all naked flush draws are calling or even enough to make it more profitable than a 2/3 bet on turn. I also think that against made hands a 2/3 bet on turn and 1/2 bet on river is paid off more than a pot sized bet on turn and a 1/3 bet on the river.

Against the bet on the river, you feel (correctly, I believe) that you are a dog to his range, but the incomplete information makes that decision difficult. It's not a question of are we a dog to his range or not (we are), it's how big a dog are we to his range. (If we're not sure, then it's an easy call and you never post the hand.) On a coordinated board, the lack of information favors the player in position. Don't let him play lots of money on the river.

[Acid_Knight 2]

I don't put a ton of stock in timing tells. And no, I'd fold a 1 pair hand here, even AA.

[David_Nicoson 1]

I don't put a ton of stock in timing tells. And no, I'd fold a 1 pair hand here, even AA.

So you think a lot of his range is two pair then, right?

[NoBBiR 0]

wrong topic!

[mtdesmoines 2]

I don't put a ton of stock in timing tells. And no, I'd fold a 1 pair hand here, even AA.

I play HU online and long-pause-raise/reraises are always HUGE hands. HUGE. I've never called a long pause raise/re-raise and not seen the nuts or second nuts.

[AndyZ28 0]

Bet more on the turn is what I instantly thought when I saw it. $38-pot sized. The rest is standard in my book.

[No_Neck 0]

He was bluffing with AQhh.

can't fold the river he could be on missed hearts!