Zach6668, on Sunday, December 2nd, 2007, 9:31 AM, said:
Sure it is.On an AcQh5h board, we have Ah6h vs AdKd, for example, we've got 45.455% equity.Now switch it up a bit, AhQc5h, with Qh7h vs AdKd, we've got 49.293% equity.Meh, it's only 4%, but it makes a difference to our overall EV of playing fast.
I went through the same thought process.
- No way AK. It's more out!
- Bleh, it's only 4%.
- Maybe there's a different way to express this makes it look like it matters.
It's 1.2 : 1 vs. 1.03 : 1, FWIW.If we put the whole 468 in on the flop, how much do we be lose (speaking marginally):
top pair + flush draw vs. better top pair:468 - (0.45455)(468)(2) = $42.54
middle pair + flush draw vs. top pair:468 - (0.49293)(468)(2) = $6.62for a difference of $35.92. If we thought we were in a nearly break-even situation, then this would be a big deal. That is, our bluff has to work much more often in the top pair case. At least, that's how I would spin it if I were arguing this in court. The chance that TPTK snaps us off for all that on the flop seems pretty small. We're much more likely to face a set or two-pair if we really stack off, so it turns out to be irrelevant. If there were two raises before the flop, I think it matters (because it's much more reasonable for the villain to stack off with one pair) a lot. Here, not so much.
Edited by David_Nicoson, 02 December 2007 - 08:10 AM.
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