Posted 29 November 2007 - 11:51 PM
Tricky spot. My SOP against people who min-raise in position is to assume they have a draw, but given the super dry flop, that's unlikely. The next most common hand is usually top set, but 15's a high enough PFR that I can't imagine villain would be smooth-calling with AA in the CO. I guess I'd probably call the flop with the plan to lead at almost any turn to either steal if a scare card came off or find out exactly where I was if a safe card came. Then, when the actual turn gave me 6 outs against middle set, I'd probably c/c it just like you did.On the river, it looks like he has something like AKQJ after all and was indeed drawing OOP, but the line's so bizarrre I'd be sorely tempted to look him up. Ultimately though, I'd look back to the 1.5 agg factor and assume that he probably has something. Actually, if I were going to guess a hand, I guess with would be AKQT. He's scared to commit to two pair on the flop, but feels like he has to raise, bets his two pair with the betting lead on the turn and then goes for value when he hits the straight on the river. Good aces looking to LRR preflop are also a possibility, especially if Button has been aggressive.
Lady luck's my fuck-buddy.