Posted 28 November 2007 - 01:05 PM
I've found overbet river shoves/bets to be generally a sign of extreme strength, not weakness. If you have evidence to believe otherwise, you can call, otherwise I fold here. The line usually is, if he was going to bluff, wouldn't he bluff less? That's usually the case. And unless he's using some ridiculous meta-game on your azz here, I see him having the A and you making a relatively easy fold with a lot of chips left to actually play.
It's weird I know, but what's going through his mind with the A is this. "If he can call the turn, he must have a 3 or an A, so I'm going to shove with my A" And if he has A-4...he's thinking he can get called by a naked ace and win with the nuts.
Unfortunately, his logic is backwards....because if you have an A, you are going to raise his river bet anyway...and if you have a 3, you are going to flat. So the optimal bet for him is actually about a pot sized bet, which you'd call with a 3 and raise with an ace.
It's hard to choose from just one. ~Walt Disney