Posted 23 November 2007 - 08:42 PM
I really really wanna dump this hand. UTG's actions just fit perfect for 64s, I don't think A4 shows up near as much as others think. He would have had to have check called a raise and reraise with only a gutter, without a read I'd assume that doesn't happen. Preflop he limped from UTG, which signals small pairs and suited connectors alot; that could be different for full ring but at 6 max its very safe assumption. Flop he check calls, very fitting of a draw. On the turn a draw hits and hes all of a sudden wakes up with a pot sized bet, hmmmm.
I'd say this is almost never a bluff. If he flopped a set and is going to slow play through a raise and reraise on the flop why all of a sudden apply so much pressure. I wouldn't expect to see a 99 or 1010 overpair here often either. 22 might make this play, but probably doesn't make it past the flop. Two pair would be a big stretch with his preflop and flop actions. Hands we beat just don't fit very well with his line.
With only 88, 64, and A4 beating us I am going to the felt just about every time with our hand. However, with the way you butchered it on earlier streets makes me think we can get away from it in this specific occasion. We don't much invested, two players played a dryish flop passively getting great pot odds, then they both went to the felt when the only real draw gets there on the turn. Go back to the flop and put in a decient sized raise followed by a good turn bet then I'm going to the felt with them; as played I get out. This a very tough laydown to make, but I think its probably the correct play given the flop action.