Posted 04 January 2005 - 10:16 PM
One fact missing in your outline of the hand is the price of the blinds. You mentioned that it was a $5K NL game and that the initial bettor raised to $300. I'm assuming that is 3x or more sized raise. If it is, AA, KK, AK, QQ or JJ are the most likely hands (if it's a loose player, maybe something weaker - know your opponent). The caller behind may also have any of these or some other lower pair or suited connector like you, or possibly Axs. With the original raiser checking, to me, this either indicates that he is either very weak (QQ, TT, AJs) or very strong (KK, JJ, AA with the A of spades, or AK with the A of spades, or possibly AK without the A of spades) If he is weak with QQ or TT and scared of the K on the board, he will just fold to any bet, or possibly call if he has the Q of spades. If he is strong, he is planning to check raise you. In either case, you need to bet a nice sized bet to prevent QQ with the Q of spades from drawing the higher flush on you. In addition, if he did flop a set or AA/AK with the A of spades, he will likely raise, and if he doesn't, you want him to pay for his full house or nut flush draw.I personally would bet about a pot sized bet being content to take it right there, and if called, moving all in at the turn or moving all in at the flop if re-raised.Bottom line is that this is going to be a big winner (or big loser if your opponent draws out) for you or you will just win it at the flop if no one has anything, but the low flush is vulnerable to the full house and the 4 flush making a higher flush and you will be very reluctant to fold if the board pairs or if another spade hits. I say bet it fairly strong and get your money in while its highly likely that you have the best hand.Another factor to consider is how good/reckless is your opponent. It sounds like you played it perfectly over betting the pot a little making it look like you were trying to steal with a draw thereby inducing him to re-raise with AK. If you had been up against another opponent, he may have just called hoping you were on a draw and would slow down at the turn and if another spade hit or the board paired, you may slow down and he could get out without risking his whole stack. Some very tight players may even fold AK there with no spade, so over betting may not be the best play, but I think it's better to overbet there and scare off a potential caller than to underbet and let a drawer make his draw for cheap.