9 replies to this topic

[Detra]

Im not at my home computer so unfortunately I can't better demonstrate what I mean but what do you guys do in a capped 3rd street multi-way pot with a monster like 3 small suited cards in Stud 8 or a 5 low draw in razz and you catch bad on 4th?

I've read arguments for and against and personally I can't get myself out of a very large pot on 4th for 1 or 2 bets depending on the situation/cards because I caught one bad card. Heads up is different.

So what do you guys think?

[dingas]

Interesting question. In Stud/8, it is quite complicated because a lot depends on the opponents' board textures. For Razz, I decided to boot up twodimes.net and enter some hands to see if it helps:

pokenum -mc 500000 -r ac 3c 5c kc - 4d 5d 7d 3d - 6s as 2s 7s - 3h 4h 5h 2h
Razz (7-card Stud A-5 Low): 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 5c 3c 50878 10.18 446488 89.30 2634 0.53 0.104
7d 5d 4d 3d 137787 27.56 352526 70.51 9687 1.94 0.285
As 7s 6s 2s 64174 12.83 435751 87.15 75 0.01 0.128
5h 4h 3h 2h 235797 47.16 253862 50.77 10341 2.07 0.482

So here, we started with A53 and caught a King, while our three opponents all caught good. Our equity drops to only 10%, so we should obviously not be in a hurry to put in bets here. Probably call one bet if you are closing the action or don't expect a raise behind, but insta-fold for two cold.

pokenum -mc 500000 -r ac 3c 5c kc - 4d 5d td 3d - 6s as 2s 7s - 8h 4h 5h 2h
Razz (7-card Stud A-5 Low): 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 5c 3c 86607 17.32 412464 82.49 929 0.19 0.174
Td 5d 4d 3d 83712 16.74 414661 82.93 1627 0.33 0.169
As 7s 6s 2s 162396 32.48 337360 67.47 244 0.05 0.325
8h 5h 4h 2h 165240 33.05 333469 66.69 1291 0.26 0.332

Here, I made one of the opponents a donk with 10-high, and gave the third opponent an 8. Here we have 17% equity, which is probably enough to see fifth.

So I guess we can conclude that against solid/tight opponents you should lean towards folding 4th, and against loose/weak opponents you should lean towards calling.

Another way to look at the situation is to estimate the number of cards you can catch that will allow you to continue past 5th street. So with AK53, we will definitely be continuing if we catch a 2,4,6, or 7. Just say for example that we are playing 8-handed, have 3 opponents on 4th, and have seen two 4s and one 6 in the other hands. That means we have seen a total of 14 cards, and there are 38 left in the deck, of which 13 help us. So the probability of improving is about 33%. Now you need to estimate your pot equity when you do catch good. I would estimate that we probably have about 33% equity against 3 opponents when we improve our hand. So multiply .33 (chance of improving) by .33 (equity if we improve) and we get .11. This works out to about 9:1 odds. So, we should call if we are getting 9:1 pot odds. In practice, this means that we can call one or two bets if we are closing the action, but should fold if we expect it to be three-bet or capped.

[Cappy37]

Simple answer: you've pot-protected yourself in both instances.. Both cases you have a pot big enough to give you the odds to pay multiple bets on 4th street to see another card.

If you catch bad on 5th, simply give up (unless multiple players have gone out and you can see 6th for 1 or 2 bets), knowing you were given a nice price to see 5th street.. If you catch good, then you are in business.

[Detra]

Beautiful, I love this stuff.

The reason I brought it up is because I was watching a friend play stud 8 and he had a 324 suited or 325 and he and what seemed like 1 other who had an 8 up were aiming at the low in a 4 or 5 handed hand that was capped on 3rd. Fourth street brought an of suit 9 and he immediately mucked, citing Todd Brunson's section in SS2 saying that this is a must fold.

I thought that couldn't be right, but there it was, so I wanted some feedback on how and why the expert on the subject feels this way.

[Cappy37]

Beautiful, I love this stuff.

The reason I brought it up is because I was watching a friend play stud 8 and he had a 324 suited or 325 and he and what seemed like 1 other who had an 8 up were aiming at the low in a 4 or 5 handed hand that was capped on 3rd. Fourth street brought an of suit 9 and he immediately mucked, citing Todd Brunson's section in SS2 saying that this is a must fold.

I thought that couldn't be right, but there it was, so I wanted some feedback on how and why the expert on the subject feels this way.

lol.. he quoted Brunson/SS2 and then folded? Ditch your friend completely: he a. ) can't read and b. ) can't play poker..

the offsuit 9 is a bad card, but with no one drawing a better than 8 low, you are still a huge favorite for the low pot in Stud8, and a favorite overall in Razz, unless someone else catches a... nm, if no one is showing better than an 8 on 3rd, your draw is *still* best with a 9 showing on 4th. All the 9 does is hide your hand better in Stud8.

[Detra]

lol.. he quoted Brunson/SS2 and then folded? Ditch your friend completely: he a. ) can't read and b. ) can't play poker..

the offsuit 9 is a bad card, but with no one drawing a better than 8 low, you are still a huge favorite for the low pot in Stud8, and a favorite overall in Razz, unless someone else catches a... nm, if no one is showing better than an 8 on 3rd, your draw is *still* best with a 9 showing on 4th. All the 9 does is hide your hand better in Stud8.

Thank you. And its what I said! But I mean, what is Brunson's logic then, he like, says that an "expert" in stud said he would call a bad card on 4th in a capped 3rd street hand and Brunson says he's an idiot.

How about if my buddy's hand had the villan's low at a 7 up instead of an 8. Still call? I say yes, Brunson says no, He's large and rich and famous, and I currently am none of those things. Is this style preference or what is going on.

[dingas]

Beautiful, I love this stuff.

The reason I brought it up is because I was watching a friend play stud 8 and he had a 324 suited or 325 and he and what seemed like 1 other who had an 8 up were aiming at the low in a 4 or 5 handed hand that was capped on 3rd. Fourth street brought an of suit 9 and he immediately mucked, citing Todd Brunson's section in SS2 saying that this is a must fold.

I thought that couldn't be right, but there it was, so I wanted some feedback on how and why the expert on the subject feels this way.

It really depends on what the other people had and how aggressively they were betting. Also the liveness of his draws on fourth. For example, here is a hand where we are up against a pair of aces, a low draw, and a donk playing a pair of Queens (I gave him a few back-door straight draws just to be nice):

pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 ad ah 2c 5h - 3s 2s 5s 9d - 6h 7h 3c 2d - qd qs ts jh
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
2c Ad Ah 5h 60083 184470 315250 280 108745 69905 1236 0.319
5s 3s 2s 9d 44743 89079 410603 318 106240 70899 3227 0.203
3c 2d 7h 6h 19994 32330 467629 41 228093 127967 2466 0.266
Qs Ts Qd Jh 17789 193801 306198 1 0 0 0 0.212

Even after catching the 9, we have 20% equity, which means we should be calling a cap. But if you change a few of the opponents' side-cards to spades and put in a dead 4 or two, the equity drops dramatically. Also, if one of the opponents has trips, we are not doing very well at all, or if the third opponent has a low draw instead of a high-only hand. In sum, there are really too many factors in play to be able to give a general answer.

It is definitely not a "must-fold" in a vacuum, but there are cases where you should fold.

[Frez]

Everything cappy has said is bang on. If the pot was capped on third only a moron folds on 4th for one bet, or even two if oyu know it will not be raised behind you. Even in dingas' worst case scenario we have 10% equity, and with 16 bets in preflop if it's not raised on 4th we're getting 19-1 to call. Even if it is raised we're getting 22-2, still OK for 10% equity.

I'm at work too so I can't grab the book, but I doubt Todd Brunson wrote to fold when you catch bad on 4th, 4 way when it was capped on 3rd.

[Cappy37]

Thank you. And its what I said! But I mean, what is Brunson's logic then, he like, says that an "expert" in stud said he would call a bad card on 4th in a capped 3rd street hand and Brunson says he's an idiot.

How about if my buddy's hand had the villan's low at a 7 up instead of an 8. Still call? I say yes, Brunson says no, He's large and rich and famous, and I currently am none of those things. Is this style preference or what is going on.

Uhh... Have your bud re-read the Stud-8 section of SS2.. Brunson is 100% for seeing 5th street if you've put in significant bets on 3rd with 3 connecting babies.. Pairing your hand on 4th actually makes you far more versatile.

As for villain having a 7 up, it all depends on what villain catches on 4th.. If the villain catches anything from a 2-5 I might consider folding, an ace is too likely to pair him, and a 6 still has him not enough of a favorite over us (if it didn't pair him) to make a fold +EV.

This isn't hold 'em.. It's Stud8. There is a boatload of cards that come out on 5th that make us huge favorites once again, and enable us to be in position to "get there" and scoop the entire pot.

And in Razz, no one even can really consider their hand defined until 5th street. I'm sure Checky will add more later, but your friend is crazy if he's folding in these spots, no matter what the blinds. I would gladly put myself all in fourth with 7765 late in stud8.

[Cappy37]

I'm at work too so I can't grab the book, but I doubt Todd Brunson wrote to fold when you catch bad on 4th, and you have a 2-way hand, 4 way when it was capped on 3rd.

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