Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converterPreflop: Kojak is MP3 with K:diamond:, J:spade:. UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Kojak raises, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.Flop: (14.50 SB) Q:spade:, 9:club:, 3:heart: (7 players)BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Kojak bets, Button calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.Turn: (10.25 BB) A:club: (6 players)BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets...i definitely have the odds to call here, but i'm wondering if this is a raise situation to clean up some outs?specifically, is it worth a raise to make the rare KJ fold (so that if i hit on the river, i'll earn the whole pot instead of half pot)? or is it better to just call so that the rare J8 might stay in (giving me tremendous implied odds when he caps his straight to my nut straight)?aseem
gutshot draw--call or raise?
Started by akishore, Apr 27 2005 09:07 PM
6 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 27 April 2005 - 09:07 PM
#2
Posted 27 April 2005 - 09:12 PM
You don't have many outs to clean up. An ace has you beat to 4 outs. A queen has you beat to 3 outs. Not really much you want to clean up.I call and hope everyone behind me does, too. That would be pretty sweet.PS. You are rarey splitting this pot when you hit.
back for kramit
#3
Posted 27 April 2005 - 09:13 PM
wrto4556 said:
You don't have many outs to clean up. An ace has you beat to 4 outs. A queen has you beat to 3 outs. Not really much you want to clean up.I call and hope everyone behind me does, too. That would be pretty sweet.PS. You are rarey splitting this pot when you hit.
#4
Posted 27 April 2005 - 09:26 PM
ok, thanks.i called, a lot of people called behind me, i hit my gutshot, checked to me, i bet, got checkraised, i three-bet, got capped with one person being sandwiched, and we both split it with KJ.the thought did go off in my head on the turn--should i raise here to make another KJ fold? i just figured that would be pretty rare so it's better to call.thanks,aseem
#5
Posted 27 April 2005 - 09:57 PM
On the turn you're 10.5 :1 to hit your gutshot, and that's assuming the T
is good. You have no other outs. The absolute last thing you want is to open this up to a 3-bet, and you want all the overcalls you can get. It's worth a call, since it looks highly doubtful this will get raised behind you, but that's it.Correct me if I'm wrong, but even if you know that one opponent also had KJ (which was highly unlikely), and your raise would knock him out (it should have, but may not have), I still don't think you gain any expectation by raising the turn. Now you'd be investing $2 into an $11.25 pot on a 10.5:1 shot, whereas if you're splitting the pot you're only investing $1, so it's basically the same odds, and poor value either way. But it's highly doubtful that this is the case - just calling is correct.On the other hand, if you've hacked into party's system, and you know the ten is coming, then I think absolutely you should raise. :twisted:
Then you go to da box for 2 minutes by yourself, you feel shame... then you get free.
#6
Posted 27 April 2005 - 10:14 PM
mr. nice guy, i like your points the most. so basically, even if i know that there is another K-J out there, either move is -EV, so i have to just assume there is no other K-J out there, in which case calling is correct.aseem
#7
Posted 28 April 2005 - 09:47 AM
Assem, raising might be correct if many in front of you had called, and you had an overcard, in which case your raise is to pad the pot for the times you would hit either you overcard or the gutshot
Wine Notes for those that care about such pretentious things
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