5 replies to this topic

[sealster]

Ok so I used to play cash and MTTs but I've found that MTTs take too long and I tilt too much in cash games so I've decided to try turbo SNG's and see how it goes for now. I'm 3 tabling them right now and am starting low with 3$ ones. I was really lost as to what to do in this hand on the bubble. I had pushed the last 2 hands after the big stack limped in one on and then open jammed on the button with 33. He hadn't been playing aggressive really so I knew he had a hand and would likely call. How important is making the money vs trying to win, I know top 3 is key but 3rd places obviously aren't amazing. Should I be able to find a fold here, just flat call and see what develops or is it okay to push?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

Hero (t2660)
UTG (t2510)
Button (t8575)
SB (t1255)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A , K .
1 fold, Button raises to t800, 1 fold, Hero?,

[Metternich]

ship it in

[natedawg2]

instashove

[Cappy37]

You need little reason to raise on the bubble.

You need good reason to call on the bubble.

1. ) Big Stack pot-committed: he will call you.

2. ) You aren't short stack, and your M is about 7ish

3. ) You have been able to steal fairly liberally from what I gather.

You want to apply the pressure, not call. Button is probably pushing ATC, which makes it less likely he has an A or a K. This is actually *bad* for us because it puts you between a 2-1 and 3-2 favorite, but rarely more than that.

Others will tell you to play the math, and that's fine. You can amass a nice stack of chips here roughly half the time or 3 out of 5 times. You go home with nothing between 40-50% of the time. That's not great equity.

It costs you less than 10% of your stack to fold. If you had raised with AK and gotten pushed on, you have a closer decision to make. This is not the case here.

You can definitely find a fold here on the bubble. I wouldn't think less of you.

I actually like a stop-and-go here more than a PF push: because he's far more willing to gamble with ATC pre-floop. If he's got something retarded like J7 or Q5, he'll like it a lot less if he doesn't catch a piece of the flop. I still prefer the fold.

[pdr87]

This one is actually closer than it looks. We are risking so much icm equity because of the shortstack with 6bb left.

So for this to be a good move, I think he has to fold our reshove over 50% of the times here, and if you have a read on him that says he's more likely to call here, then this is not a reshove.

So it's either a stop'n'go or a fold imo. But I think stop'n'gos are somewhat risky with an unpaired hand. Tough one.

If he was a light raiser / tight caller this would be an easy shove though.

[copernicus]

This is very close. I'll do the real ICM later, but I think this is very risky against the huge stack unless hes been trying to bully and can be on a very wide range. Hes got 2:1 odds to call your push so a call is very likely. Lets look at the extreme good side..you have him dominated. If you fold you have about 30% equity in the prize pool. Call and win youve got about 38% equity. Call and lose your done. So we're at best about .38*.7 = .27 equity under these extreme conditions. Ie you need fold equity to make this profitable, and a helluva lot of it, because picking up the 800 plus the blinds doesnt do much for you at all.