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Awesome Variance Demo

Started by simo_8ball, Oct 26 2007 05:01 AM

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14 replies to this topic

#1 simo_8ball

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Posted 26 October 2007 - 05:01 AM

This just shows what is possible and likely. It's an excel spreadsheet which simulates a graph over 100k hands based on your standard deviation and true winrate.

http://pokerfilz.50megs.com/variancedemo.xls

For a 3ptBB/100 winner with 70 ptBB/100 standard deviation, here is an example graph:


#2 avsfan

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Posted 26 October 2007 - 05:03 AM

ouchies....ewwww. that maketh me sad. Try harder.

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#3 Zach6668

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Posted 26 October 2007 - 05:04 AM

aim786 made something like this for LHE.

He posted it somewhere in here, gen strat.

It's VERY interesting.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#4 simo_8ball

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Posted 26 October 2007 - 05:06 AM

Comes from this thread:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat...p;vc=1&nt=4



BTW, the SD in that graph is really high. Most players are around 50 I think. But it's worth playing around with different stats to see what's possible.

#5 avsfan

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Posted 26 October 2007 - 05:21 AM

QUOTE (simo_8ball @ Friday, October 26th, 2007, 6:06 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Comes from this thread:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat...p;vc=1&nt=4
BTW, the SD in that graph is really high. Most players are around 50 I think. But it's worth playing around with different stats to see what's possible.


ehhhh yuck what the hellz? your linkin with the devil there.

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#6 ccaff23

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Posted 26 October 2007 - 07:53 AM

I added a couple modifications to this related to annual income. All assumptions are in blue, with calculations in black. Pretty interesting to watch income variances as you refresh the chart.


http://www.furniturecooperative.com/varian...assumptions.xls

Attached Files


#7 channjalen2003

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Posted 26 October 2007 - 07:56 AM

QUOTE (simo_8ball @ Friday, October 26th, 2007, 5:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
This just shows what is possible and likely. It's an excel spreadsheet which simulates a graph over 100k hands based on your standard deviation and true winrate.

http://pokerfilz.50megs.com/variancedemo.xls

For a 3ptBB/100 winner with 70 ptBB/100 standard deviation, here is an example graph:


I like her better as a blonde this year.

#8 ccaff23

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Posted 26 October 2007 - 07:59 AM

To add to my post above...

ALSO, you can override the ptbb/hr, by simply replacing the forumla in the PTBB/100 cell with an actual number. I play a couple times a week in the cash games in LA, moral of the story the guys I see everytime I roll into the commerce aren't making millions... and are hardly making enough to do anything in LA....I guess I'll stay an investment banker.

#9 gfdsa146

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Posted 31 October 2007 - 06:20 AM

what does ptBB/100 mean?

Percent Max Buyin/100 hands?

#10 Zach6668

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Posted 31 October 2007 - 06:22 AM

pokertracker big blinds/100 hands.

it's just 2x the big blind because PT was designed with LHE in mind, thus they made the win rate in terms of Big BETS/100, and the big bet is 2x the big blind. (BB vs bb)
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#11 krup24

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Posted 31 October 2007 - 07:29 AM

QUOTE (Zach6668 @ Wednesday, October 31st, 2007, 10:22 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
pokertracker big blinds/100 hands.

it's just 2x the big blind because PT was designed with LHE in mind, thus they made the win rate in terms of Big BETS/100, and the big bet is 2x the big blind. (BB vs bb)


so to calculate my PT BBs / 100

would i divide [(BBs won/# hands)*100]/2
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#12 Zach6668

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Posted 31 October 2007 - 07:33 AM

huh?

ptbb/100 is what poker tracker gives you as your winrate.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.

#13 David_Nicoson

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Posted 31 October 2007 - 07:33 AM

QUOTE (krup24 @ Wednesday, October 31st, 2007, 11:29 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
so to calculate my PT BBs / 100

would i divide [(BBs won/# hands)*100]/2

If BB is big blinds, then yes.
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#14 krup24

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Posted 31 October 2007 - 09:15 AM

QUOTE (David_Nicoson @ Wednesday, October 31st, 2007, 11:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
If BB is big blinds, then yes.


thanks dave

and zach i don't have PT i keep track of results in excel
Give me a paper and pen so I can write about my life of sin. A couple bottles of gin in case I don't get in.
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#15 Zach6668

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Posted 31 October 2007 - 09:48 AM

oh.

get pt.
QUOTE (serge @ Tuesday, May 12th, 2009, 7:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
LETS GO PITTSBURGH
QUOTE (Acid_Knight @ Monday, March 10th, 2008, 4:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Zach is right about pretty much everything.
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