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Qq Vs A Dry Board


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#41 mtdesmoines

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 01:53 PM

View Postcwik, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 1:40 PM, said:

I very much agree with your write up, but just want to mention I wouldn't rule out AA/KK here. UTG raise -> UTG+1 reraise -> a 4bet here looks VERY strong, almost always going to be AA/KK sometimes AK/QQ and very rarely a bluff. For this reason I think a lot of players will flat call to conceal the strength of their hand. Maybe 50/50 raise to call.
Right. The hands we beat don't give us this PF action. Only AK. Only AK. We're behind 80% of the villain's range here.
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#42 krup24

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 01:54 PM

View Postcwik, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 5:40 PM, said:

I very much agree with your write up, but just want to mention I wouldn't rule out AA/KK here. UTG raise -> UTG+1 reraise -> a 4bet here looks VERY strong, almost always going to be AA/KK sometimes AK/QQ and very rarely a bluff. For this reason I think a lot of players will flat call to conceal the strength of their hand. Maybe 50/50 raise to call.
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#43 Acid_Knight

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 02:31 PM

View Postcwik, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 2:40 PM, said:

I very much agree with your write up, but just want to mention I wouldn't rule out AA/KK here. UTG raise -> UTG+1 reraise -> a 4bet here looks VERY strong, almost always going to be AA/KK sometimes AK/QQ and very rarely a bluff. For this reason I think a lot of players will flat call to conceal the strength of their hand. Maybe 50/50 raise to call.
Ok, well, not ruling out AA and KK here doesn't help us since we can't beat those anyway. That kind of just reinforces my points that we really can't beat any reasonable hand that he'd play like this.I think both AA and KK are possibilities, but I just think that of the 2, KK is less likely.

#44 Temporary Nuts

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 02:43 PM

All you nits that would fold this:Stop 3 betting Q-Q preflop.So horrible
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#45 mtdesmoines

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 03:10 PM

View PostTemporary Nuts, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 2:43 PM, said:

All you nits that would fold this:Stop 3 betting Q-Q preflop.So horrible
heads up, I die with these queens in my hand.six max, I don't like where this is headed.
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#46 Acid_Knight

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 03:11 PM

View PostTemporary Nuts, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 3:43 PM, said:

All you nits that would fold this:Stop 3 betting Q-Q preflop.So horrible
Is there a (SW) to accompany this post or are you serious?

#47 Temporary Nuts

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 05:53 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 7:11 PM, said:

Is there a (SW) to accompany this post or are you serious?
We're in a 100bb game.The only more favorable boards we don't have a set on are like 2-2-6-9 rainbow... not too many of themIf you fold here, honestly, you're saying to wait to hit a set with pairs unless you have AA/KK, because the bet presented here is like the weakest bet possible, and the people advocating folding I know to be habitual C-bettors. So if you three bet them preflop, and c-bet, but fold to any turn bet... just think about it here... you're creating a big pot you're not playing without a set, so you may as well just keep the pot small and play them passively, because all you're looking to do with the three bet and c-bet is pick up the pot... and you're risking a lot more of your own chips in relation to what you can win by taking this line.As far as the hand goes...I'm not disagreeing that people would play set hands or A-A / K-K this way, or that it's probably the best way to approach their hand if that's what they're holding. It just drives me bonkers to no only assume an unknown is holding a monster, but to assume he plays it perfectly. It's a rare enough occurrence that we're going to run into a brick wall with Q-Q at six max on a favorable board, but to have it played well by an unknown? Surely you don't think the majority of players are awesome players... and if you do then I guess that's why we don't see eye to eye. I mean it seems when you guys approach hands you put yourselves in the villain's shoes and are blind to anything you wouldn't play in such a manner... but I digress... the point is, when the combination of cards a villain can be holding aren't in huge disporpotions favoring one move over the other, you've really got to look at how often a player will play those hands in such a manner... and I just don't see the majority of players playing hands that beat us this way, but I do see the majority of players being capable of making blocking bets, and being capable of getting involved preflop with a marginal holding, especially since the villain has almost every right to believe that UTG is coming along for the ride in this preflop situation, and that this isn't a full ring game.Wow that was a long post... it'll prolly be ignored especially since *I* posted it lmfao.
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#48 Acid_Knight

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 06:23 PM

View PostTemporary Nuts, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 6:53 PM, said:

We're in a 100bb game.The only more favorable boards we don't have a set on are like 2-2-6-9 rainbow... not too many of themIf you fold here, honestly, you're saying to wait to hit a set with pairs unless you have AA/KK, because the bet presented here is like the weakest bet possible, and the people advocating folding I know to be habitual C-bettors. So if you three bet them preflop, and c-bet, but fold to any turn bet... just think about it here... you're creating a big pot you're not playing without a set, so you may as well just keep the pot small and play them passively, because all you're looking to do with the three bet and c-bet is pick up the pot... and you're risking a lot more of your own chips in relation to what you can win by taking this line.As far as the hand goes...I'm not disagreeing that people would play set hands or A-A / K-K this way, or that it's probably the best way to approach their hand if that's what they're holding. It just drives me bonkers to no only assume an unknown is holding a monster, but to assume he plays it perfectly. It's a rare enough occurrence that we're going to run into a brick wall with Q-Q at six max on a favorable board, but to have it played well by an unknown? Surely you don't think the majority of players are awesome players... and if you do then I guess that's why we don't see eye to eye. I mean it seems when you guys approach hands you put yourselves in the villain's shoes and are blind to anything you wouldn't play in such a manner... but I digress... the point is, when the combination of cards a villain can be holding aren't in huge disporpotions favoring one move over the other, you've really got to look at how often a player will play those hands in such a manner... and I just don't see the majority of players playing hands that beat us this way, but I do see the majority of players being capable of making blocking bets, and being capable of getting involved preflop with a marginal holding, especially since the villain has almost every right to believe that UTG is coming along for the ride in this preflop situation, and that this isn't a full ring game.Wow that was a long post... it'll prolly be ignored especially since *I* posted it lmfao.
Just because this is 6 max, doesn't mean that you can't run into monsters.Just because the board is fairly harmless looking, doesn't mean that it's VERY likely that we're beatenThe small bet doesn't make much of a difference if we're very certain that we're losing and we don't have the odds to draw outI am not looking at the hand how I would play it because honestly, I'm probably folding most of my hands here since I figure that with TT or 99 or something, it's probably a set mining operation and UTG could still repop it and I'd just be burning money. As for him being an unknown, I'm not trying to give too much credit or too little, since that's really the only way to go about it. I chose a reasonable range for someone to play preflop with the action provided. You gotta admit, there just aren't that many hands that he can have here and there are even fewer that we can beat.This isn't being afraid to play QQ strongly. It's not like we're waiting for the perfect board or a set. This isn't seeing monsters that aren't there. Yeah, the board doesn't look scary, but when it meets up with his narrow range of hands, we're pretty crushed by it. I'm all for aggressive play and everything, but I don't think that the small bet means that we HAVE to call it or even continue past this point. All of the signs seem to add up to tell us that we're beaten here.

#49 Acid_Knight

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 06:25 PM

doublepostaments

#50 Acid_Knight

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 06:32 PM

View PostTemporary Nuts, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 6:53 PM, said:

you've really got to look at how often a player will play those hands in such a manner... and I just don't see the majority of players playing hands that beat us this way, but I do see the majority of players being capable of making blocking bets, and being capable of getting involved preflop with a marginal holding, especially since the villain has almost every right to believe that UTG is coming along for the ride in this preflop situation, and that this isn't a full ring game.
I think the exact opposite actually, that most players DO NOT make blocking bets and that they certainly don't make them in weird spots like this in massive reraised pots on the turn with only 1PSB left. I mean, do you really think he's trying to slow you down with this bet? Do you really think he's folding to a shove here? It just feels like he is pretty certain he's got the best hand and is trying to make sure the chips go in.

#51 cwik

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 06:54 PM

View PostTemporary Nuts, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 6:53 PM, said:

We're in a 100bb game.The only more favorable boards we don't have a set on are like 2-2-6-9 rainbow... not too many of themIf you fold here, honestly, you're saying to wait to hit a set with pairs unless you have AA/KK, because the bet presented here is like the weakest bet possible, and the people advocating folding I know to be habitual C-bettors. So if you three bet them preflop, and c-bet, but fold to any turn bet... just think about it here... you're creating a big pot you're not playing without a set, so you may as well just keep the pot small and play them passively, because all you're looking to do with the three bet and c-bet is pick up the pot... and you're risking a lot more of your own chips in relation to what you can win by taking this line.As far as the hand goes...I'm not disagreeing that people would play set hands or A-A / K-K this way, or that it's probably the best way to approach their hand if that's what they're holding. It just drives me bonkers to no only assume an unknown is holding a monster, but to assume he plays it perfectly. It's a rare enough occurrence that we're going to run into a brick wall with Q-Q at six max on a favorable board, but to have it played well by an unknown? Surely you don't think the majority of players are awesome players... and if you do then I guess that's why we don't see eye to eye. I mean it seems when you guys approach hands you put yourselves in the villain's shoes and are blind to anything you wouldn't play in such a manner... but I digress... the point is, when the combination of cards a villain can be holding aren't in huge disporpotions favoring one move over the other, you've really got to look at how often a player will play those hands in such a manner... and I just don't see the majority of players playing hands that beat us this way, but I do see the majority of players being capable of making blocking bets, and being capable of getting involved preflop with a marginal holding, especially since the villain has almost every right to believe that UTG is coming along for the ride in this preflop situation, and that this isn't a full ring game.Wow that was a long post... it'll prolly be ignored especially since *I* posted it lmfao.
I think in general you need to give unknowns credit until they prove themselves otherwise. Your saying it is possible that this players range is bigger then we are giving him credit for, which might be true, but if you are never willing to lay down an overpair, you are a calling station. You have to realize that there is really not much difference of staking off here with an overpair or TP/TK and without reads we try not doing that.I am not saying we should muck this hand, as I am stuck between calling and folding. But I am pretty sure this isn't a shove. We are either WA/WB, and we are not folding out any of the hands that beat us and there are no draws we have to worry about. If the villain bet more I am pretty sure this is a fold, however he is giving us a good enough price, that if we call he only needs to check the river about 1/4 times for this to be profitable (because I think we are ahead 90% if he checks).

#52 Acid_Knight

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 07:04 PM

View Postcwik, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 7:54 PM, said:

I think in general you need to give unknowns credit until they prove themselves otherwise. Your saying it is possible that this players range is bigger then we are giving him credit for, which might be true, but if you are never willing to lay down an overpair, you are a calling station. You have to realize that there is really not much difference of staking off here with an overpair or TP/TK and without reads we try not doing that.I am not saying we should muck this hand, as I am stuck between calling and folding. But I am pretty sure this isn't a shove. We are either WA/WB, and we are not folding out any of the hands that beat us and there are no draws we have to worry about. If the villain bet more I am pretty sure this is a fold, however he is giving us a good enough price, that if we call he only needs to check the river about 1/4 times for this to be profitable (because I think we are ahead 90% if he checks).
If you call the turn, you really have to fold to any bet on the river, even $40 again because it's just throwing away money. If he checks the river, then I'd check behind him too. Basically, if I were to continue with the hand (which I wouldn't given how ti played out) then I'd call his turn bet and not put another dollar into the pot.

#53 Temporary Nuts

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 07:07 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 10:23 PM, said:

This isn't being afraid to play QQ strongly. It's not like we're waiting for the perfect board or a set. This isn't seeing monsters that aren't there. Yeah, the board doesn't look scary, but when it meets up with his narrow range of hands, we're pretty crushed by it.
And why have we put him on such a narrow range? Because we did what preflop? (rhetorical)Would you say that if this was UTG that called the range was any different? (serious)So... we threebet c-bet... and when we get called we're confident on non-set boards that have no ace, no king, no completed draws, and can't have 2 cards within the 8 to jack range........ whoa, that's a lot of boards :club:
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#54 Acid_Knight

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 09:15 PM

View PostTemporary Nuts, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 8:07 PM, said:

And why have we put him on such a narrow range? Because we did what preflop? (rhetorical)Would you say that if this was UTG that called the range was any different? (serious)So... we threebet c-bet... and when we get called we're confident on non-set boards that have no ace, no king, no completed draws, and can't have 2 cards within the 8 to jack range........ whoa, that's a lot of boards :club:
If this was UTG, I'd be slightly more inclined to stack off mostly becuase it's more reasonable for him to show up with AJ here. But it's not. We can't analyze this hand for UTG playing this way becuase he didn't. This is the SB. This is a player who voluntarily coldcalled a raise (UTG) and a reraise (EP) knowing that UTG could still reraise the pot.Let's do this. If you're so confident that we should be putting money into the pot, WTF are you putting the villain on? I've provided an analysis for the hand and stated why I feel that I think folding is the best move here, or conceding the point that we could call the turn and fold to a river bet. Your reasoning seems to consist of "we've got an overpair on a non-threatening looking board; if we're folding now, why the hell are we playing the hand anyway" which doesn't even begin to address anything about our opponent's cards, which should be of a primary concern to us. And to answer your question, YES, I'm confident on this board that has no ace, no king and no completed draws that our hand is very likely beaten. It's a hand reading exercise. It feels like you're reading the "Q" and the "Q" on our two cards and not trying to read what our opponent is hiding.I'm not giving him too much credit or too little. I'm trying to give the benefit of the doubt to a player that I know nothing about, which seems to be a reasonable approach.

View PostTemporary Nuts, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 6:34 AM, said:

Call this down, and call down any non-A non-J river.
Nevermind, I guess I know that you put him on AJ or some combo hand with a J in it.

#55 NoBBiR

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 09:41 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 12:41 PM, said:

People need to focus on what happened preflop becuase I think that's really the key to everything going on here.An UTG player raised and a player behind them reraised. The villain in the hand coldcalls a raise and a reraise, OOP, with the original UTG raiser still to act. He then check/calls a bet on a totally dry flop and leads an equally harmless looking turn card with a bet that the Hero is never expected to fold to.For everyone saying that the villain can have AJ, I think that's pretty ridiculous. Yeah, I know people are bad, but that's just a disgusting play. When someone coldcalls here, they almost always wind up with a hand that's either AK or 88-JJ type of hands and rarely AA. I think KK probably 4 bets preflop. Yeah, I know if they're gonna coldcall with 88, how is 33 or 44 any different, and the answer is: it's not.I would put my money on the fact that the villain has 99, TT or JJ here and the TT just seems unlikely beucase the line is so weird. Given the action, it's unlikely that Cwik would bet unpaired overcards on the turn again, so TT would likely check and fold to another bet. I really think the whole hand feels way too much like a flopped or even turned set here. I even think that 99 is more likely because a set often raises this flop becuase it's usually their best chance to stack an overpair.If you want to call, I call the turn and fold to a river bet. I think that there's nothing wrong with folding to this turn bet here. Yeah, it looks kind of exploitable, but everything adds up to us being beaten here. The whole sequence of events that happens is so rare that I don't think that dumping QQ here is gonna be too exploitable at all. It really feels like the villain knows he's got a lock on the hand and doesn't want the turn to get checked through, so he makes a small enough bet that you could consider calling with an AK/AQ type of hand, thinking that an overcard might be a win for you. There are just so few hands that make sense for a reasonable player to play this way and you basically only beat 1 of them, so I'm probably letting this hand go.
I agree with this pretty much 100%. This looks a LOT like 99 to me. I think folding isn't bad, but neither is calling, at least if you plan on folding if he bets the river hard.
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#56 Naismith

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 09:56 PM

Acid told me to look at this hand and my first reaction was that you're running into JJ a ton here. I'm really bad in spots like this.
Peace,
Jay



#57 Temporary Nuts

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 10:07 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Friday, October 26th, 2007, 1:15 AM, said:

If this was UTG, I'd be slightly more inclined to stack off mostly becuase it's more reasonable for him to show up with AJ here. But it's not. We can't analyze this hand for UTG playing this way becuase he didn't. This is the SB. This is a player who voluntarily coldcalled a raise (UTG) and a reraise (EP) knowing that UTG could still reraise the pot. We can analyze that situation. I was wondering if it really changed THAT much. And by slightly more inclined, you seem to be inferring you'd still highly consider folding, which is my point about the threebet. Also, I'm amazed that less than a third of your stack and less than third of the pot suddenly equals stacking off for like everyone here... you do realize this bet is the size of a flop minraise...Let's do this. If you're so confident that we should be putting money into the pot, WTF are you putting the villain on? check earlier in the threadI've provided an analysis for the hand and stated why I feel that I think folding is the best move here, or conceding the point that we could call the turn and fold to a river bet. Your reasoning seems to consist of "we've got an overpair on a non-threatening looking board; if we're folding now, why the hell are we playing the hand anyway" which doesn't even begin to address anything about our opponent's cards, which should be of a primary concern to us. Not at all. But if you fold this you shouldn't have built a big pot in the first place. We built a big pot, we're facing a small portion of it, and now we're folding. It's pathetic.And to answer your question, YES, I'm confident on this board that has no ace, no king and no completed draws that our hand is very likely beaten. It's a hand reading exercise. It feels like you're reading the "Q" and the "Q" on our two cards and not trying to read what our opponent is hiding.Ok, so you need a completely naked board like 2-2-6-8 or a set to play a big pot with the range you've specified against a three bet. Congrats, don't three bet queens preflop then because those boards don't come up all that often.I'm not giving him too much credit or too little. I'm trying to give the benefit of the doubt to a player that I know nothing about, which seems to be a reasonable approach.Nevermind, I guess I know that you put him on AJ or some combo hand with a J in it.Wow, so you've gone from saying I'm blind to saying I'm completely ignoring a range and putting him on a single hand? You haven't even read my earlier posts in the thread and you're just being an ass. You can't even stay consistent in the same post.
Stop 3-betting Q-Q in 100BB games preflop because you play like a pussy. Period.
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#58 NoBBiR

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 10:48 PM

View PostTemporary Nuts, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 10:07 PM, said:

Stop 3-betting Q-Q in 100BB games preflop because you play like a pussy. Period.
That has nothing to do with it Mr. Potty Mouth.If you're just going broke all the time with overpairs just because the board is safe, we've found you a leak. This isn't a god awful place to call, but just figuring that, "Hell, I have an overpair and have ~100bb so I'm going broke ASAP" is plain wrong.You really think this guy flat called two raises with anything that we're beating other than 1010 here? Ever? Your standard villain here isn't showing up with anything that we beat very often.
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#59 Ricer98

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 10:50 PM

View PostTemporary Nuts, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 10:07 PM, said:

Stop 3-betting Q-Q in 100BB games preflop because you play like a pussy. Period.
This hand is Folding Overpairs 101, feel free to stack off here, thats how the rest of us make money.

#60 Naismith

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Posted 25 October 2007 - 11:14 PM

This isn't a great board for QQ when we had an UTG raise and a re-raise followed by a blind smooth call.
Peace,
Jay






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