Acid_Knight, on Thursday, October 25th, 2007, 12:41 PM, said:
People need to focus on what happened preflop becuase I think that's really the key to everything going on here.An UTG player raised and a player behind them reraised. The villain in the hand coldcalls a raise and a reraise, OOP, with the original UTG raiser still to act. He then check/calls a bet on a totally dry flop and leads an equally harmless looking turn card with a bet that the Hero is never expected to fold to.For everyone saying that the villain can have AJ, I think that's pretty ridiculous. Yeah, I know people are bad, but that's just a disgusting play. When someone coldcalls here, they almost always wind up with a hand that's either AK or 88-JJ type of hands and rarely AA. I think KK probably 4 bets preflop. Yeah, I know if they're gonna coldcall with 88, how is 33 or 44 any different, and the answer is: it's not.I would put my money on the fact that the villain has 99, TT or JJ here and the TT just seems unlikely beucase the line is so weird. Given the action, it's unlikely that Cwik would bet unpaired overcards on the turn again, so TT would likely check and fold to another bet. I really think the whole hand feels way too much like a flopped or even turned set here. I even think that 99 is more likely because a set often raises this flop becuase it's usually their best chance to stack an overpair.If you want to call, I call the turn and fold to a river bet. I think that there's nothing wrong with folding to this turn bet here. Yeah, it looks kind of exploitable, but everything adds up to us being beaten here. The whole sequence of events that happens is so rare that I don't think that dumping QQ here is gonna be too exploitable at all. It really feels like the villain knows he's got a lock on the hand and doesn't want the turn to get checked through, so he makes a small enough bet that you could consider calling with an AK/AQ type of hand, thinking that an overcard might be a win for you. There are just so few hands that make sense for a reasonable player to play this way and you basically only beat 1 of them, so I'm probably letting this hand go.
Pretty much spot on. The $40 lead on the turn is waaaayyyy too callable, AND it is just enough to commit us to the hand. The villain is positive he's ahead, and he's filling the pot. If we were sure we were ahead, we'd want to massage this pot in just this way. I'll bet that we find ourselves getting pushed into on the river.
Somewhere Jimmy Carter is smiling because he knows that he is no longer the worst President of the modern era