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Flopped Nuts Facing Raise


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#1 Citizen Erased

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Posted 17 October 2007 - 08:02 PM

Villain's on his first cycle, and PokerTracker aren't fixing us Mac users up yet, so this is without reads.Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)saw flop|saw showdownMP1 ($51.10)MP2 ($18)Hero ($57.70)CO ($17.35)Button ($14)SB ($49.50)BB ($47.25)UTG ($29.50)UTG+1 ($53.60)Preflop: Hero is MP3 with KPosted Image, KPosted Image. 4 folds, Hero raises to $1.2, 3 folds, BB calls $0.70.Flop: ($2.65) TPosted Image, 5Posted Image, KPosted Image (2 players)BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB raises to $5, Hero calls $3Turn: ($12.65) 9Posted ImageBB checks, Hero ???
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#2 Metternich

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Posted 17 October 2007 - 08:04 PM

just call.


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#3 aasurfer

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Posted 17 October 2007 - 08:12 PM

yeah all you're really worried about is JQ making a straight... when you call it will be on him to try to push you off again on the turn, so let him. a reraise here prevents him from hanging himself further if he is bluffing

#4 danc1984

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Posted 17 October 2007 - 08:33 PM

Firstly, his raise represents a made hand here I think, or QJ which is the only draw. It is extremely rare for an OOP villain to bluff-raise a cbet when a K falls.This hand is all about position. Because you have it here, I might advocate a call and then raise his turn bet. If you were OOP I would definately repop it here.

#5 krup24

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 04:36 AM

easiest call ever in position with an uncoordinated board
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#6 Influcted

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 04:39 AM

Flat call this and let him play himself broke.
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#7 Temporary Nuts

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 05:41 AM

I dunno about flat calling here...He's got1) 2 pair or a set, in which case we're not going to have problems getting money in the pot the hand plays itself2) Exactly Q-J, which we really don't want to slowplay against, not just because we don't want to let him draw cheaply, but because we only have one more street left of value here.3) Complete air that was taking a stab at this and is in all likelihood done.I raise to 12-15ishEdit: oh yeah, and his light check-raise, makes me lean towards this being #2
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#8 mtdesmoines

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 05:46 AM

View PostCitizen Erased, on Wednesday, October 17th, 2007, 8:02 PM, said:

Raise. Your hand is going to be very well-disguised here. If he has nothing, he's not paying you on the turn anyway. If he has something, he's coming along for the ride. Make it $10.
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#9 David_Nicoson

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 06:13 AM

Nuts, he could be probing with the case king. KQ or KJ.
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#10 Temporary Nuts

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 06:16 AM

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Thursday, October 18th, 2007, 9:13 AM, said:

Nuts, he could be probing with the case king. KQ or KJ.
I tend to ignore case cards... maybe that's a leak... does it really change the decision that much?
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#11 711Buddha

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 07:20 AM

Since he check raised, you can be pretty sure he'll fire again on the turn no matter what hits. There's no way to be sure he'll call a reraise. I think calling will get more money in over the long run.

#12 shinzilla

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 09:08 AM

Call with intentions of raising the turn.
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#13 vasivious

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 02:00 PM

View Postshinzilla, on Thursday, October 18th, 2007, 10:08 AM, said:

Call with intentions of raising the turn.
I'd agree with this.

#14 Money022

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 03:44 PM

View PostTemporary Nuts, on Thursday, October 18th, 2007, 8:41 AM, said:

I dunno about flat calling here...He's got1) 2 pair or a set, in which case we're not going to have problems getting money in the pot the hand plays itself2) Exactly Q-J, which we really don't want to slowplay against, not just because we don't want to let him draw cheaply, but because we only have one more street left of value here.3) Complete air that was taking a stab at this and is in all likelihood done.I raise to 12-15ishEdit: oh yeah, and his light check-raise, makes me lean towards this being #2
This makes no sense. If he has 2 pair or a smaller set then we can get his money on a later street. Sure if we raise and he has that, then he sticks along. If he has QJ then we're a huge favorite and we can let a card peel off and allow him to make a mistake on a later street because we didn't telegraph we have a monster. If he has air and we just call, then he may think he can fire the second bullet on a semi-bluff.The point of calling is that we allow him to continue taking the lead and perhaps make a mistake by bluffing off more chips. And if he did hit a big hand on the flop, then we're way ahead and it should still be easy to get the money in later.
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#15 Temporary Nuts

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 03:51 PM

View PostMoney022, on Thursday, October 18th, 2007, 6:44 PM, said:

This makes no sense. If he has 2 pair or a smaller set then we can get his money on a later street. Sure if we raise and he has that, then he sticks along. If he has QJ then we're a huge favorite and we can let a card peel off and allow him to make a mistake on a later street because we didn't telegraph we have a monster. If he has air and we just call, then he may think he can fire the second bullet on a semi-bluff.The point of calling is that we allow him to continue taking the lead and perhaps make a mistake by bluffing off more chips. And if he did hit a big hand on the flop, then we're way ahead and it should still be easy to get the money in later.
How does this make no sense? I simply think he shows up with Q-J here more often than air. C'mon... a light check raise with air? Give me a break.Are you going to slow down if a 9 or A falls on the turn? Maybe then I could see why you'd call.If you can't three bet this, then what exactly are you three betting?
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#16 Money022

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 04:19 PM

View PostTemporary Nuts, on Thursday, October 18th, 2007, 6:51 PM, said:

How does this make no sense? I simply think he shows up with Q-J here more often than air. C'mon... a light check raise with air? Give me a break.Are you going to slow down if a 9 or A falls on the turn? Maybe then I could see why you'd call.If you can't three bet this, then what exactly are you three betting?
You're not three betting it because you chance folding out a hand you're ahead of. If you just call, you give him a better opportunity to bet the turn with his draw. If he isn't on a draw, and has a hand like two pair or a lower set, then he's still getting more money in on the turn or river. A raise here will often kill the action from hands that might lead out if you let them think they still have control of the hand.
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#17 Temporary Nuts

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 05:21 PM

View PostMoney022, on Thursday, October 18th, 2007, 7:19 PM, said:

You're not three betting it because you chance folding out a hand you're ahead of. If you just call, you give him a better opportunity to bet the turn with his draw. If he isn't on a draw, and has a hand like two pair or a lower set, then he's still getting more money in on the turn or river. A raise here will often kill the action from hands that might lead out if you let them think they still have control of the hand.
Besides the case king and really crappily played air, what hands are these exactly?
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#18 Money022

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Posted 18 October 2007 - 06:31 PM

View PostTemporary Nuts, on Thursday, October 18th, 2007, 8:21 PM, said:

Besides the case king and really crappily played air, what hands are these exactly?
I have no clue what you're getting at here. The opponent either has a strong hand, or weak/drawing hand. By calling you give yourself an opportunity to get action from hands that fall into both groups. By raising you get half of that group to fold. Do I have to spell it out for you? You have position, don't give them a reason not to fire another bullet. If they have TT or 55 then you're getting their stack either way you play it, so there's no reason not to give a bad hand a little more rope.
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#19 Temporary Nuts

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Posted 19 October 2007 - 05:15 AM

View PostMoney022, on Thursday, October 18th, 2007, 9:31 PM, said:

I have no clue what you're getting at here. The opponent either has a strong hand, or weak/drawing hand. By calling you give yourself an opportunity to get action from hands that fall into both groups. By raising you get half of that group to fold. Do I have to spell it out for you? You have position, don't give them a reason not to fire another bullet. If they have TT or 55 then you're getting their stack either way you play it, so there's no reason not to give a bad hand a little more rope.
The point is that the case K is so rare, and this is air like never. We're not worried about him having power hands which has been established. So to the rest of his range, the lone draw, where this betting pattern actually makes a ton of sense our hand really doesn't matter unless he makes the draw AND the board pairs. Raise.
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#20 KramitDaToad

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Posted 19 October 2007 - 06:06 AM

View PostTemporary Nuts, on Friday, October 19th, 2007, 2:15 PM, said:

The point is that the case K is so rare, and this is air like never. We're not worried about him having power hands which has been established. So to the rest of his range, the lone draw, where this betting pattern actually makes a ton of sense our hand really doesn't matter unless he makes the draw AND the board pairs. Raise.
Couldn't disagree more. This is a King more often than a draw. Also if he is halfway competent he is not reopening the betting with a strong draw to the nuts.If you allow for any suited King calling in the BB there are many more combinations of a Kx than QJ. You've also got pocket pairs testing the water this way, AT, QT, JT, 9T as well. There are plenty hands that the average .25/.50 player will be here with. The only one that can reasonably overtake us is QJ. Raising is scaring off value more often than not.




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