19 replies to this topic

[pdr87]

No reads. Is this an easy shove?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t40/t80
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t2325
UTG+1: t1995
MP1: t1580
Hero: t1040
CO: t6735
Button: t2510
SB: t2355
BB: t2780

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is MP2 with T A
3 folds, Hero raises to t220, 2 folds, SB calls t180 (pot was t340), BB calls t140 (pot was t520).

Flop: 2 7 A (t660, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero..?

[copernicus]

Push. Your SPR is barely over 1 and you arent folding if you check and get bet into.

[Wingman008]

What does SPR mean?

[AKProdigy]

What does SPR mean?

Stack to Pot Ratio I believe. And yes, I shove here.

[Jam-Fly]

Yeah, I'd probs shove.
Bettng like 400 or 500 is ok too I think, trying to induce action. Checking is maybe ok too (ie trying to rep a PP) but I wouldn't do it too often

[jmbreslin]

I don't like the PF raise. Your M is less than 10 - either shove or fold PF.

[AbsolutKnuts]

All you can eat baby.

[copernicus]

I don't like the PF raise. Your M is less than 10 - either shove or fold PF.

Pushing here is undervaluing ATs. While your M is 10, the whole tourney isnt that deep stacked, you arent likely to be called when you really want to accumulate chips, not just blindds, and you can play poker back into it with an M of 10. Im not in push or fold mode with ATC and first in vigorish until an M of 3 or 4.

[HijackedAffairs]

Yeah an M of 10 is not where you enter shove/fold territory. I use the 10xbb rule instead. If you have less than 10 times the big blind, push instead of a standard raise.

[jmbreslin]

He doesn't have an M of 10, he has an M of less than 10 - about 8.6, to be more precise. A standard raise eats 20% of his stack and there is still a bigstack to act after him. Although the blinds are still relatively low, so I see the point about wanting to accumulate chips...

I just hate the idea of making a raise for 20% of my stack here when so much can go wrong (biggie and/or button decide to call, negating your positional advantage; you whiff on the flop and then have to decide what to do; etc). But maybe that's because I have less confidence in my postflop play than others have in theirs...

[rog]

So your M is less than 10. You're risking 1k and your tournament life to pick up 120 in blinds. Madness I says. Also keep in mind that ATs is one of those hands that is in very bad shape if you get called. I'd prefer this shove with 67s where at least you gain some value from fold equity.

[pdr87]

So your M is less than 10. You're risking 1k and your tournament life to pick up 120 in blinds. Madness I says. Also keep in mind that ATs is one of those hands that is in very bad shape if you get called. I'd prefer this shove with 67s where at least you gain some value from fold equity.

I'm not shoving to pick up 120 in blinds. The pot contains 660.

Let's analyze this:

If they have AJ-AK and maybe KK+(if they can't let it go) they will call me. (To make it a bit easyer, let's say I only get one caller, fair enough?).

It would be very rare for someone to limp with AJ+ here, but lets give them the benefit of the doubt and say that they have these hands 20% of the time

If they will call 20%, they will fold 80%. So 80% of the time i'll end up with 1480.

1480 * 0.8 = 1184

If I get called against that range (20% of the times) i have 28% chance to win and end up with around 2250.

0.2 * 0.28 * 2250 = 126

If I get called and lose I'll have 0 chips left.

If I fold I'll have 820 chips left.

EV of shove = 1184 + 126 + 0 = 1310

I do not think they have these hands 20% of the time, as these where pretty standard micro-stakes players.

Is this analisys OK? I may have missed something here.

Edit: I didn't take the times I'll get called by a weaker ace into the equation. But I don't think it would make the shove -EV. Rather the opposite.

[jmbreslin]

I think rog was responding to my suggestion about pushing PF...

In any case, I think I had a situation just like this a few nights ago. I raised PF w/ AT, got a caller, pushed the flop when I flopped an A, and lost to AQ. Flat calling a raise with AJ or AQ is certainly not unusual this early in a low stakes SnG. But the PF raise puts you in the position of having to push on the flop because you can't very well put half of your remaining stack in to the pot as a CB and leave yourself with 400 chips. This is why the standard PF raise in this situation is so tricky: because you end up committing yourself to the pot if you connect when you could be dominated without realizing it.

[pdr87]

I think rog was responding to my suggestion about pushing PF...

In any case, I think I had a situation just like this a few nights ago. I raised PF w/ AT, got a caller, pushed the flop when I flopped an A, and lost to AQ. Flat calling a raise with AJ or AQ is certainly not unusual this early in a low stakes SnG. But the PF raise puts you in the position of having to push on the flop because you can't very well put half of your remaining stack in to the pot as a CB and leave yourself with 400 chips. This is why the standard PF raise in this situation is so tricky: because you end up committing yourself to the pot if you connect when you could be dominated without realizing it.

What you are saying makes a lot of sense. But when I'm this situation, even though the preflop-play wasn't spot on. It's actually +EV to shove even if I get called 50% of the times by my given calling range. And a few times I'm going to be called by lower aces as well, so I think we can agree that the shove is right on this flop. Or can't we?

Edit: Maybe I'm the slow one here. Have we already agreed that pushing the flop is my only option at this point?

[pdr87]

Another thought about preflop:

Wouldn't you think AJ+ will call my all in preflop anyway? Atleast AQ+.

[jmbreslin]

Yes, which is why I find this kind of situation so tricky. Pushing PF is far from ideal because the blinds aren't worth stealing, and you're likely to get called only by a hand that has you beat. But making a standard raise and CB commits your stack on the flop, at which point you are again likely to get called by a hand that has you beat.

I guess the question comes down to this: Are the chances of getting called by a worse hand when you push the flop higher than if you push PF? If so, it makes sense to make a standard raise PF and then push the flop. Of course the standard raise also leaves you with an escape on the flop if you whiff.

Okay, I can see why the standard raise is the better play here.

[copernicus]

Yes, which is why I find this kind of situation so tricky. Pushing PF is far from ideal because the blinds aren't worth stealing, and you're likely to get called only by a hand that has you beat. But making a standard raise and CB commits your stack on the flop, at which point you are again likely to get called by a hand that has you beat.

I guess the question comes down to this: Are the chances of getting called by a worse hand when you push the flop higher than if you push PF? If so, it makes sense to make a standard raise PF and then push the flop. Of course the standard raise also leaves you with an escape on the flop if you whiff.

Okay, I can see why the standard raise is the better play here.

Think of it in reverse...its pushing vs a stop and go. While stop and gos generally are better with middle pairs, they still pick up some fold equity from PF to flop, because villain misses 2/3 of the time. The question is do you want a fold PF at all. Limping PF is definitely an option here. You are likely to get the same pot going into the flop, when you miss you get away cheaply, when you hit top pair you face some additional risk, when you hit a flush draw youve retained some favorable implied odds.

[jmbreslin]

Actually, I had typed "How stupid would a PF limp be?" and then deleted it. The only problem with limping PF is that you could allow both CO and Button to see a flop cheaply, which would not only increase the # of villains on the flop but would negate your positional advantage. On the benefit side, though, is the ability to get away from the hand for only 80 chips if you whiff on the flop.

So, limp>raise or raise>limp?

[pdr87]

I don't think I'll limp this one. For three reasons:

1) I'll probably get raised more often than not.

2) If I hit a flop like the one in this post in a 4-5-way pot, it would be pretty sick to shove.

3) In most cases, I will not be able to steal if I miss the flop.

[copernicus]

I don't think I'll limp this one. For three reasons:

1) I'll probably get raised more often than not.

2) If I hit a flop like the one in this post in a 4-5-way pot, it would be pretty sick to shove.

3) In most cases, I will not be able to steal if I miss the flop.

1) isnt that big a deal, you wont be committing that many more chips if you call, you'll have the same information from a raiser as you do from a caller.)

2) yes but you dont need to shove if PF is limped around. You will be investing somewhat more then you would have with a preflop raise but the additional information you have is tremendous when someone is willing to call/raise into the face of an Ace. you can get away more easily. Also on a flop with 2 diamonds youve gained a lot of implied odds. You flop two diamonds almost as often as you flop an A.

3) Are your chances of stealing with a rag flop very good anyway after a called raise and having a nearly committed stack?