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Drowning On The River


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#21 dbl_j_22

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 12:12 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Sunday, September 9th, 2007, 3:04 PM, said:

Why can't you call the turn and fold the river?Why can't you make him shove the rest in on the river with the knowledge that you might have a set of 8s or aces up?I think folding the turn regularly here becomes very exploitable if you're only calling with aces up and sets and stuff, but I don't think that calling the turn in any way shape or form commits you to a river call. They are separate streets and you gain more and more info as you move along with which to make better decisions.
That sounds good too. But i wouldn't count his river shove as more information that he has a hand, becuse we are still wondering about his capability to continue with a bluff, so I would think if you aren't sure on the turn, that this river action isn't going to help you anymore, which is why I like making the decision onthe turn. So I guess if you are calling the turn to gather more information on the river, and you don't get it, then do you have to stack off here to see his hand? And if you fold the turn, you do so with knowledge that he's not capable of pulling this type of move?I'm just glad I get to play this hand on the forum like this and wasn't put to the test with chips in front of me because this hand has me completely thrown off.Would you say that you normally will call off your chips ifyou didn't pick up a read on this river, or you would just let it go because he kept firing?
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#22 David_Nicoson

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 03:06 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Sunday, September 9th, 2007, 4:04 PM, said:

Why can't you call the turn and fold the river?Why can't you make him shove the rest in on the river with the knowledge that you might have a set of 8s or aces up?I think folding the turn regularly here becomes very exploitable if you're only calling with aces up and sets and stuff, but I don't think that calling the turn in any way shape or form commits you to a river call. They are separate streets and you gain more and more info as you move along with which to make better decisions.
Suppose we're the villain with one pair. Is our line on the river check/call or check/fold? I'm just not so convinced that I know anything sufficiently definitive when he bets the river.
QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
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#23 Acid_Knight

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 03:19 PM

On the turn? Check/call if he thinks it's good. Check/fold if not. I can't see this being 1 pair very often at all.

#24 mtdesmoines

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 03:26 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Saturday, September 8th, 2007, 7:31 PM, said:

I've been sitting here for about 2 hours and haven't done anything special. I'd say the same about the villain. He seems to be a competent player who hasn't done anything unusual yet.2/5 NL.Villain - $1200Acid - $575 or soTightish woman UTG raises to $15 (smallish for the table) and I make the standard call in MP1 with J :icon_dance: 8 :icon_dance: . MP3 calls and the BB (villain) calls too.Flop ($60) 4 playersJ :club: 8 :D 3 :icon_dance: Villain checks, UTG checks, I bet $25, MP3 folds, Villain calls, UTG folds.Turn ($110) 2 playersJ :D 8 :D 3 :icon_dance: (A :))Villain checks, I bet $70, he c/r $150 more to $220. I think a long time and call.River ($550) 2 playersJ :D 8 :) 3 :icon_dance: A :) (2 :icon_dance:)Villain shoves. It's $320 more for me to call. Comments on all streets welcome.
I usually bet pot with two pair that fall in the middle of the deck like 7-J on the flop. Reason is that you know the board is probably bringing an over on the turn or river that you're not going to like. Ace on the turn is a devastating card, because you know as well as I do that the villain could have very well call a second pair or a kicker pair with the A, and now hit a better two pair. Getting check-raised in this situation with this holding, I probably muck unless I have an awesome read.
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#25 mtdesmoines

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 03:37 PM

View PostNaismith, on Sunday, September 9th, 2007, 10:48 AM, said:

Whatever the villain has, I think we can all agree that he played it horribly!
Really? Villain has us contemplating either an awful call or a horrible fold.
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#26 David_Nicoson

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 03:42 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Sunday, September 9th, 2007, 7:19 PM, said:

On the turn? Check/call if he thinks it's good. Check/fold if not. I can't see this being 1 pair very often at all.
I meant his line with one pair on the river. You do think he has one pair sometimes, right? Otherwise I'm really lost on the turn play.
QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
I'm invincible. Like Super Mario when he gets that star thingy.


#27 Acid_Knight

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 03:50 PM

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Sunday, September 9th, 2007, 4:42 PM, said:

I meant his line with one pair on the river. You do think he has one pair sometimes, right? Otherwise I'm really lost on the turn play.
Why does he ever have one pair on the turn unless it's Jxhh? You think he floats OOP with AK/AQ there and then raises the turn with it? That seems really odd.

#28 Naismith

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 03:53 PM

View Postmtdesmoines, on Sunday, September 9th, 2007, 4:37 PM, said:

Really? Villain has us contemplating either an awful call or a horrible fold.
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#29 David_Nicoson

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 04:10 PM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Sunday, September 9th, 2007, 7:50 PM, said:

Why does he ever have one pair on the turn unless it's Jxhh? You think he floats OOP with AK/AQ there and then raises the turn with it? That seems really odd.
Well, no I don't think that. I thought you did because you called. OK, suppose he's either beating us on the turn or he has a draw. He never check raises with a made hand that we beat. If he's beating us already, then we don't want to call the turn for 4 outs.If we're ahead AND he never bets the river with a busted draw, then clearly we want to raise. If he semi-bluffs the draw on the turn and occasionally bets the river, then we might call/call.So I don't understand why you're calling the turn and then contemplating a fold on the river.Edit: You're taking the river bet as evidence that he doesn't have a draw. So I guess it's possible that this is the best line with those assumptions and the right range for him. There might need to be some math here.
QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
I'm invincible. Like Super Mario when he gets that star thingy.


#30 tskillz187

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 05:40 PM

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Sunday, September 9th, 2007, 5:10 PM, said:

Well, no I don't think that. I thought you did because you called. OK, suppose he's either beating us on the turn or he has a draw. He never check raises with a made hand that we beat. If he's beating us already, then we don't want to call the turn for 4 outs.If we're ahead AND he never bets the river with a busted draw, then clearly we want to raise. If he semi-bluffs the draw on the turn and occasionally bets the river, then we might call/call.So I don't understand why you're calling the turn and then contemplating a fold on the river.
This is my exact line of thought. I feel like I've been trying to say exactly this!I also disagree with Naismith on Villain playing it horribly, I think he played it fine with either draw or a better hand honestly.
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#31 Footballguru

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 07:21 PM

tough decision. At first it seems like an easy fold. But is also a golden bluff opportunity if he was on the 910, esp if there hearts. Think if you are him. He prob puts you on like j10/jq ish type hand and when the ace falls its a beautiful opportunity to rep the ace and make you fold your now second pair. Also i have seen people do this with AK. Their line of thinking is something like "I have AK but im not re raising cuz it never falls" then on the flop "only 25? thats tiny bet , i still have 6 outs." On the turn and river"OMG i hit a pair with AK! i have the nuts i gotta get all in"But this also reaks a8 or 33. So id make his range 33,a8.88,Ak,and a draw draw. from there, its just math and any read you can get off of him

#32 David_Nicoson

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 07:41 PM

OK, so let me rough this in and see if it goes anywhere.Acid Knight thinks he can call the turn for pot odds, because the villain's range includes draws. His break-even win percentage is 27%. For the purposes of this exercise, assume that the villain never fires a second bullet with a missed draw on the river.When he's behind, he's drawing very thin. He's also behind more than he's ahead, so a raise is -EV.
Board: Js 8h 3c AhDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 07.727%  05.23% 02.50% 			 46 	  22.00   { Jc8c }Hand 1: 92.273%  89.77% 02.50% 			790 	  22.00   { JJ, 88, 33, AJs, A8s, A3s, J8s, AJo, A8o }
When the villain is drawing, the hero is a 3:1 ish favorite.
Board: Js 8h 3c AhDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 	76.136%	  76.14% 	00.00% 			   268 			0.00   { Jc8c }Hand 1: 	23.864%	  23.86% 	00.00% 				84 			0.00   { KhQh, Qh9h, JhTh, Tc9c, Th9h, Ts9s, 9h7h, Jh9d }
Let d = probability the villain is drawingLet p = pot sizeLet b = bet hero has to callcost to call = ( EV when drawing ) x (probability villain in drawing) + (EV when villain's ahead) x (probability villain is ahead) b = (3/4)pd + 0.08p(1-d) (I thought I could neglect the second term, but this turns out to be a poor approximation.)b = 3/4pd + 0.08p-0.08pdb = (3/4 -0.08)pd + 0.08p(b-0.08p) / [(3/4 - 0.08)p] = d(150- 0.08 x 550) / [(3/4 - 0.08)550] = d0.29 = dSo if the villain is semi-bluffing more than 29% of the time, then a call is better than a fold.If the villain is drawing a bit more than half the time, then it becomes better to raise than call.Fixed numerous mistakes in this post.

Edited by David_Nicoson, 10 September 2007 - 06:54 AM.

QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
I'm invincible. Like Super Mario when he gets that star thingy.


#33 Acid_Knight

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 08:17 PM

Even before he fixes errors, I just want to say that David Nicoson is The MAN!

#34 CobaltBlue

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Posted 09 September 2007 - 10:40 PM

View Posttskillz187, on Saturday, September 8th, 2007, 11:51 PM, said:

I don't think we can call turn and not call river. I think once you make the decision on the turn you have to call on the river.

View PostAcid_Knight, on Sunday, September 9th, 2007, 3:04 PM, said:

They are separate streets and you gain more and more info as you move along with which to make better decisions.
Just wanted to reiterate what AK said here. The more action we force villain to take, the more information we can gather. Yeah, he's probably going to shove in on the river...but if we know he never does this without more than a pair, we can more confidently fold at that point. If he might do it strong or on a bluff, we should be able to gauge his reactions a bit. As AK noted, I told him that do think it's going to be extremely tempting to call the river once we call the turn based on odds...and that it might be possible to fold the turn...but I don't think it's entirely unreasonable to call the turn and fold the river.

#35 David_Nicoson

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Posted 10 September 2007 - 05:25 AM

We left out QT for two-overs and a gut-shot (and perhaps a 3-flush) on the flop and then double-gutted on the turn.
QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
I'm invincible. Like Super Mario when he gets that star thingy.


#36 Pot Odds RAC

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Posted 10 September 2007 - 05:29 AM

View PostAcid_Knight, on Sunday, September 9th, 2007, 8:17 PM, said:

Even before he fixes errors, I just want to say that David Nicoson is The MAN!
David.Some friends and I are considering invading a Middle Eastern countr... ummmm... playing a risky hand. We have the best trained and equiped arm... errr... hand. However there is a slight chance that public opinio... uhhhh... the villian could turn against us on the River...A little help?Thanks,W.

#37 David_Nicoson

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Posted 10 September 2007 - 06:07 AM

If I'm the villain, I'm making a semi-bluff only because I read the hero as weak. Otherwise, I'm going to draw and cackle to myself about my hand's back-door goodness. When the hero flat calls on this board, my evaluation changes but not that much.For those times that I do semi-bluff the turn, a very high percentage of the time I will bluff on the river.It's possible for a Very Clever Player to make a little money with call/fold with a good river read. So I have to concede on that point. I don't think I fall into that category, though. It requires a precise a read for a small gain.

Edited by David_Nicoson, 10 September 2007 - 01:59 PM.

QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
I'm invincible. Like Super Mario when he gets that star thingy.


#38 David_Nicoson

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Posted 10 September 2007 - 06:33 AM

Can we talk combinations for a second?33 2JJ 188 2AJ 6A3s 3 (I think he folds A3o mostly. This makes a big difference, so think on that a little.)J :club: 8 :D 1 15 combinationsThe "behind" range is a little harder to pin down. Some of the possibilities are iffy, so I'm arbitrarily counting only some suits for some ranks. Combo Draws:T :) 9 :icon_dance: T :club: 9 :club: T :D 9 :D 7 :icon_dance: 9 :icon_dance: K :icon_dance: Q :icon_dance: Q :icon_dance: T :icon_dance: Q :icon_dance: 9 :heart: Q :club: T :club: Jack with hearts:J :club: T :club: Q :club: J :club: K :heart: J :heart: Big aces:A :club: K :club: A :) K :) A :D K :club: A :club: Q :heart: Also 15 hands. This "behind" range is a 3:1 dog, just like the first one.
Board: Js 8h 3c AhDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 75.455%  75.45% 	00.00% 			   498 			0.00   { Jc8c }Hand 1: 24.545%  24.55% 	00.00% 			   162 			0.00   { AcKc, AsKs, AcQc, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, QcTc, QhTh, Qh9h, JhTh, Tc9c, Th9h, Ts9s, 9h7h, AdKc }
So if he always semibluffs the turn with these hands and shuts down on the river, we have a clear call. We don't really expect that, though. We can say that if the villain check raises from the behind range 29%/50% = 58% of the time that we should call the flop. I'm pretty sure that implies an unwarranted precision. When he has a good draw, does he bluff the turn half the time?
QUOTE(bleacherbum3 @ Friday, February 29th, 2008, 3:28 AM) View Post
I'm invincible. Like Super Mario when he gets that star thingy.


#39 Acid_Knight

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Posted 10 September 2007 - 06:53 AM

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Monday, September 10th, 2007, 7:07 AM, said:

If I'm the villain
Oh, I was the villain by the way.

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Monday, September 10th, 2007, 7:07 AM, said:

I'm making a semi-bluff only because I read the hero as weak. Otherwise, I'm going to draw and cackle to myself about my hand's back-door goodness. When the flat hero calls on this board, my evaluation changes but not that much.For those times that I do semi-bluff the turn, a very high percentage of the time I will bluff on the river.
So, really a lot about this hand was very standard for me.Preflop with the tightish lady leading UTG and getting a couple of callers, I call this preflop like 100% of the time because people were deep (and the guy with J8 had the fewest chips) and the UTG lady has a narrow range.On the flop, his bet is really weak. I am not sure whether I read it for strength or weakness just yet, but I like my hand so I decide to call and see what happens on the next streets. We wind up getting HU.On the turn, I check and when he bets $70, it really feels like he wants the hand to be over right there. I am unsure whether he can even beat the A from his bet. I decide to c/r becuase it's exactly how I would play any number of really strong hands and even a few semi-bluffs if I felt the timing was right. When he thinks and then just calls the turn, I put him like 80-90% on J8 for 2 pair becuase I didn't think he'd call with a lesser hand and I could tell that he didn't love calling.The river came out and I pushed. The hero/villain (guy with J8) thought for a very long time and then finally said "nice hand, you got me" and called.Now what am I holding?

#40 Acid_Knight

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Posted 10 September 2007 - 06:56 AM

View PostDavid_Nicoson, on Monday, September 10th, 2007, 7:33 AM, said:

Can we talk combinations for a second?33 2JJ 188 2AJ 6A3s 3 (I think he folds A3o mostly. This makes a big difference, so think on that a little.)J :club: 8 :D 1 15 combinationsThe "behind" range is a little harder to pin down. Some of the possibilities are iffy, so I'm arbitrarily counting only some suits for some ranks. Combo Draws:T :) 9 :icon_dance: T :club: 9 :club: T :D 9 :D 7 :icon_dance: 9 :icon_dance: K :icon_dance: Q :icon_dance: Q :icon_dance: T :icon_dance: Q :icon_dance: 9 :heart: Q :club: T :club: Jack with hearts:J :club: T :club: Q :club: J :club: K :heart: J :heart: Big aces:A :club: K :club: A :) K :) A :D K :heart: A :heart: Q :club: Also 15 hands. This "behind" range is a 3:1 dog, just like the first one.
Board: Js 8h 3c AhDead:  	equity 	win 	tie 		  pots won 	pots tied	Hand 0: 75.455%  75.45% 	00.00% 			   498 			0.00   { Jc8c }Hand 1: 24.545%  24.55% 	00.00% 			   162 			0.00   { AcKc, AsKs, AcQc, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, QcTc, QhTh, Qh9h, JhTh, Tc9c, Th9h, Ts9s, 9h7h, AdKc }
So if he always semibluffs the turn with these hands and shuts down on the river, we have a clear call. We don't really expect that, though. We can say that if the villain check raises from the behind range 29%/50% = 58% of the time that we should call the flop. I'm pretty sure that implies an unwarranted precision. When he has a good draw, does he bluff the turn half the time?
A3 would definitely be in my range here if it were suited.The big aces are NOT in my range since I'm really never going to float that flop OOP with that hand.The QT suited gutshot isn't in the range for me either.And lastly, FWIW, I'm not really gonna c/r the turn with the J :club: x :club: in this case.




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