14 replies to this topic

[Absolute]

I know this should probably go in the bad beats, but I told a friend I would try to help him out on the math for this hand he encountered.Playing a weekly cash game when the following PL O8 hand comes up.I am not involved in this hand, but am at the same table. Neither hand here is strong whatsoever, but you have to expect this with most people who play this game.Player 1 has: A K J 10Player 2 has: K J 3 4Flop comes: J J 2(I don't recall suits, they are irrelevant in this problem though)Player 2 bets pot, player 1 re-raises pot, player 2 goes all in. Player 1 calls.turn comes 5river comes 6player 2 scoops the pot with the low and the straight.how could one (and what are) the odds of player 2 scooping here?

[wrto4556]

He only has 1 out to a scoop...so 25-1 because there are two cards to come.On the turn his odds go up for a scoop...

[allinbluff35]

do you just want the % of chance he has on the flop and turn? if so cardplayer has an omaha odds calculater

[allinbluff35]

XXEddie said:

allinbluff35 said:

do you just want the % of chance he has on the flop and turn? if so cardplayer has an omaha odds calculater

this was hi/lo

learn to read up on how to use an odds calculatorhttp://www.cardplaye...maha/index.php#

[Vade]

wrto4556 said:

He only has 1 out to a scoop...so 25-1 because there are two cards to come.On the turn his odds go up for a scoop...

Eh? I may be a noob to omaha, but can't he catch a 3 or a 4 for a boat? Player one can't possibly make a low...

[Absolute]

Vade said:

wrto4556 said:

He only has 1 out to a scoop...so 25-1 because there are two cards to come.On the turn his odds go up for a scoop...

Eh? I may be a noob to omaha, but can't he catch a 3 or a 4 for a boat? Player one can't possibly make a low...

Player 1 can't get a low this is correct.Player 1 moves in on the flop when the low is very unlikely.Player 1's starting hand is very marginal here.Player 2's is even worse.

[Abbaddabba]

He could scoop with a 3 or 4, supposing no king or ace falls and he can scoop with the 5 _and_ the 6 falling.( (6/45) -6/45*6/45 )*2 + (4/45*4/44)--/ Probability of 3 or 4 falling and being good is... the probability of a 3 or 4 minus the probability of both a 3 or 4 falling AND a king or jack falling. Times two, since it applies for both the turn and the river in an identical but inverse way.--/ Probability of a 5 falling and a 6 falling is the probability of one mulitplied by the other= 6/45 - 36/2025 + 16/1980= (12150-1620)/91125 + 16/1980= 10530 / 91125 + 16 / 1980= 1458000+20849400 / 180427500= 22307400 / 180427500= 0.1236I think my calculations are a bit off though, so someone correct me if im wrong anywhere. Twelve percent seems to be a bit high.

[Nutcracker]

According to the odds calc, it's actually 24% chance that player 2 scoops. Remember that he has 6 outs twice to hit the boat (no low possible), then player one only has 5 redraw outs, 2 of which are actually for a split pot. Then of course, the 56 hitting turn/river.

[Absolute]

Nutcracker said:

According to the odds calc, it's actually 24% chance that player 2 scoops. Remember that he has 6 outs twice to hit the boat (no low possible), then player one only has 5 redraw outs, 2 of which are actually for a split pot. Then of course, the 56 hitting turn/river.

By the odds calculator "win" means at least half the pot. Not the same as scooping.

[wrto4556]

He's scooping with a runner runner straight and a full house.7 outs with two cards to come. 2.35-1like, 25% of the time it looks like.

[Nutcracker]

Check it out.. It says Scoop:24%. I assume that means 24% chance to scoop, what do you think it means?And wrto, check your messages box and get back me!

[Abbaddabba]

Nutcracker said:

According to the odds calc, it's actually 24% chance that player 2 scoops. Remember that he has 6 outs twice to hit the boat (no low possible), then player one only has 5 redraw outs, 2 of which are actually for a split pot. Then of course, the 56 hitting turn/river.

And he has zero outs to scoop supposing that a king or ace hits on the turn. My calculation originally used a 6 in the place of where a 5 should be, but that would account for a very small portion of the figure. Im pretty sure that it isnt as high as 24%.

[Nutcracker]

Alright, here's the math for you, since you don't believe it.Chance of scooping via hitting a boat and dodging the other player hitting a boat:Chance that the 6 outer will hit times the chance the other dude's 8 outer won't hit on the redraw (3 tens and 3 aces for scoop, 2 kings for chop).(1 - ((35/41) * (34/40))) * (32/40) = .2195Chance of hitting runner runner for a straight:(8/41)*(4/40) = .0195Chance of player 2 scooping:.2195 + .0195 = .239So 23.9%Any questions about the math? Let me know.

[cdddc75]

This took about 30 seconds to calculate:http://twodimes.net/h/?z=915695I assumed that everything was offsooooooooooooted.Both players are donks.