9 replies to this topic

[Shimmering Wang]

Reads:
BB is an older lady, a regular who appears to know what she's doing.

Button has been pretty quiet so far.

So. Hand

2 limpers to Opie in the CO. Opie raises w/QQ. Button calls, BB calls, limpers call.

10sb and 5 players to the flop

9TJr

Check, Check, Check, Opie Bets, Button Raises, BB 3-bets, fold, fold, Opie calls, Button calls


Opie doesn't appear to love his flop call all that much, especially when a quiet player raises, and an older, apparently solid player 3-bets


Turn (8BB): blank, completing the rainbow


BB Bets, Opie Folds...




Opie's analysis:

Opie's worried about it getting raised/3-bet behind him, and doesn't want to draw so expensively

[Shimmering Wang]

Welcome to the boards, Opie.

You fucking butchered this hand. I mean, you really played the shit out of this hand, huh gangster?


Cheers,

Wang

[WayneDx2]

If i'm reading your post right, you're QQ against 9 10 J flop and an 8 on the turn? Why the fold here...Doesn't the 8 make you Q high straight? With two queens in your hand you can't really be that afraid someone else has KQ are you?

Puzzled here.

[kkot]

If i'm reading your post right, you're QQ against 9 10 J flop and an 8 on the turn? Why the fold here...Doesn't the 8 make you Q high straight? With two queens in your hand you can't really be that afraid someone else has KQ are you?

Puzzled here.

Turn (8BB): blank, completing the rainbow

The pot is 8bets and the turn is a blank.

[opie]

Wang - thanks for posting this AND the completely accurate analysis.

But let's look at some numbers when it comes back to me with a decision to call 2 bets. At this point there are 16 small bets in the pot (and hopefully button just calls for one more bet), giving me 8-1 odds.

Best case, button has AJ and has put me on AK, but BB has to have AT LEAST Ten-Jack for 2 pair. In this case, I have 10 outs - any 8, Q, or K (minus button's runner-runner straight and BB's full house possibilities). That's better than 8-1, especially with future bets factored in.

Worst case, someone has KQ and I have 3 outs for a split pot and only a miracle wins me the pot. That's just bad - no point looking at any math there. Plus, I button could cap. Bad. Bad Opie.

Actual case - I have 7 outs (minus a few combinations where I hit and still lose or split), which is sort of a tough decision.

The mistake - thinking "Well, I could still hit the straight even if I'm behind" and not adding enough weight to the playing styles of the opponents who had to both have very good hands.

Peace,
Opie

[Shimmering Wang]

Once the flop gets 3-bet, you probably know you're drawing. I more than likely cap the flop when it comes back to me -- since there's some chance it'll happen behind you anyway -- because it might get one player to slow down (earning you a cheaper river if you simply check the turn, and one opponent decides not to raise), and we're usually drawing rather live (so it doesn't cost us all that much).

On the turn, folding for one more is simply a gigantic mistake. This could be all sorts of hands, and getting 8-1 we need to let a river peel off and try and spike a K or an 8. I could do some math and prove it to you, but:

Even if our opponents turned JJ and 78 face up, we could call with our hand and break even IF WE REMOVED TWO BETS FROM THE POT AND NEVER WON A BET ON THE RIVER. But it's a mistake to analyze this hand ex post facto. Our opponent's could have us in much better or worse shape.


I suspect this fold isn't as bad as terrible as I'm making it out to be -- for all I know, the hands exposed are at the bottom end of our opponents' ranges -- but it isn't one you should get into the habit of making in these games. In my experience, somebody usually slows down on the turn unless he has the nuts. It's very, very good that you're trying to anticipate whether the pot will get raised behind you, and taking that into account. This puts you way ahead of the game. But when you're drawing live in big pots in these games, folding for a single bet (or -- quite often -- three bets cold) is a big mistake.


Wang

[Sheiky]

No way i'm folding that there in a limit game, no way.

You've got an up and down straight draw with an over-pair, it's a definite call imo.

Sometimes, i think people can over complicate the skill of limit players, i think the BB could easily play this the same way if she has AJ and with your hand being as good as it is, i would just call it down because the pots so huge already.

[radmanjeff]

all i can say about this hand is that its a terrible fold and u suck big floppidy sloppidy vag

[Shimmering Wang]

I'd just like to point out that I didn't play this hand, but was merely using it as an example of how to format a strategy hand from a player thinking about about posting hands.


Anyone who knows me understands that both players could flash me KQ, and I'm still probably going to shrug and try and find a 3-way chop on the river.

[opie]

I'd just like to point out that I didn't play this hand...

Um, yeah, just to be clear - that was me who played this hand so poorly. I was looking for a hand to post where I got confused. Obviously, this one fit the bill. Please send all congratulations to me.

To balance this out, I thought I should also post a hand I played brilliantly, to prove that I really am a freakin' genius. But that is even harder to find (although, maybe I'm just a dullard!). It seems like there aren't many great plays in limit hold'em, just correct plays and stupid ones (accepting that there are different styles and so possibly different correct plays, although one may be slightly more profitable). I've set up a few bluffs against an opponent that I thought were sort of clever, but that is hard to post in one hand.

Can anyone post a hand as an example of a very clever play? Or is there just right and wrong?

Peace,
Opie