22 replies to this topic

[Chisox6]

Here's the situation: 39 seats, 40th and 41st get $33, 42nd gets $9. Blinds are 4000/8000 with 400 ante. I have 13000 chips left after posting the ante UTG, so I can play both blinds and then would be anted off on the button. There are 43 players left, with one player all-in this hand and two more will be all-in on the next hand (all at other tables). The big blind has a mid-stack so he's trying to hang on, only one real big stack at the table, he's in the cutoff (with about 34,000).

I pick up A-K suited UTG...I....?

[Scott3705]

Here's the situation: 39 seats, 40th and 41st get $33, 42nd gets $9. Blinds are 4000/8000 with 400 ante. I have 13000 chips left after posting the ante UTG, so I can play both blinds and then would be anted off on the button. There are 43 players left, with one player all-in this hand and two more will be all-in on the next hand (all at other tables). The big blind has a mid-stack so he's trying to hang on, only one real big stack at the table, he's in the cutoff (with about 34,000).

I pick up A-K suited UTG...I....?

Fold, you're going to lose the hand.

[rdtedm]

Fold, you're going to lose the hand.

I don't think you can play scared. If you push here most people will fold because it's so close to the bubble, and you have to take advantage of that. the REALLY big stack might call light, looking to eliminate, and any other hands that call you off you're likely to be ahead of. It sucks finishing on the bubble, but when you're close to it, you can't fold big hands unless you have chips to survive a few orbits.

[Scott3705]

I don't think you can play scared. If you push here most people will fold because it's so close to the bubble, and you have to take advantage of that. the REALLY big stack might call light, looking to eliminate, and any other hands that call you off you're likely to be ahead of. It sucks finishing on the bubble, but when you're close to it, you can't fold big hands unless you have chips to survive a few orbits.

Yeah, I forgot the sw. I don't play a ton of satellites, but I can't imagine getting this short stacked. This is an easy push i would think.

[Orcasgt22]

all in. Noone calls unless its AA KK QQ or monster stack

[Yahkin]

Shove it in this situation. If there were 40 left I think you could fold it.

[monix]

Wow...tough spot...I'd push since anyone with a brain should fold everything, unless they were a real shortie with AA or KK, AK...

[StupidKid]

The fact that the big stack only has 34K (in comparison to ur 13K) means this is def an insta shove.
AA/KK are unlikely due to u having AK so gogogo.

[SpeedKills]

You have to push there. You dont want to have to play a random hand in the blinds.

[Wingman008]

instapush.

People aren't going to be calling unless they hold a monster, and since you have an ace and a king it diminishes those chances.

You have two other hands left, and while people may be all in this hand, if either of them win then you're gonna be forced to play a hand regardless.

Because this is a top 10% hand you have to push because the likelyhood that you pick up another similar hand in the next two hands is very unlikely.

[TB17]

are you guys seriously saying shove?

[Wingman008]

naw, I just like typing.

Why wouldn't we be? If we don't then we are gonna be blinded out anyways aren't we?

[StupidKid]

are you guys seriously saying shove?

4 players will be knocked out before hero?
I don't think we can fold to seat here.
But I may be wrong.
Should this be a fold?

[TB17]

It should definately be a fold. If you have AA you probably can't fold. But you have 3 hands, the chances that 4 people will be knocked out in 3 hands is much higher than surviving, evne if you are way ahead.

[Chisox6]

Interesting discussion. The fact that having A-K diminishes the chances I'll be up against A-A or K-K was something I hadn't thought of. Anyway, I pushed all-in and everyone folded. The tourney ended on the hand I was in the SB, so I would've squeezed in if I hadn't pushed as well. So everyone was right! Thx for the help and the ideas.

[StupidKid]

Interesting discussion. The fact that having A-K diminishes the chances I'll be up against A-A or K-K was something I hadn't thought of. Anyway, I pushed all-in and everyone folded. The tourney ended on the hand I was in the SB, so I would've squeezed in if I hadn't pushed as well. So tb17 was right! Thx for the help and the ideas.

FYP, if you didn't NEED to shove DON'T shovel in a satty.
Surviving without having to play a hand>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Surviving and having to play a hand.

[Scott3705]

It should definately be a fold. If you have AA you probably can't fold. But you have 3 hands, the chances that 4 people will be knocked out in 3 hands is much higher than surviving, evne if you are way ahead.

When do you start letting yourself just fold out to seat? Is there any sort of standard? Is there a certain M you are looking for x# of players out of the money?

[Yahkin]

FYP, if you didn't NEED to shove DON'T shovel in a satty.
Surviving without having to play a hand>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Surviving and having to play a hand.

The problem is...he could not know that 4 people would be knocked out on that hand. I think 4 people getting knocked out in 3 hands is a coin flip at best.

[TB17]

The problem is...he could not know that 4 people would be knocked out on that hand. I think 4 people getting knocked out in 3 hands is a coin flip at best.

Letting yourself blind out close to the end of a satty is not bad. If you don't get there, then there's really nothing you can do about it.
Shoving a marginal hand like AKs in this spot is flat out CRIMINAL. The only thing worse in a satellite than blinding out, is shoving when you dont have to, and getting busted.

[vbnautilus]

It should definately be a fold. If you have AA you probably can't fold. But you have 3 hands, the chances that 4 people will be knocked out in 3 hands is much higher than surviving, evne if you are way ahead.

I can't understand why you are so confident in this decision TB17. What do you estimate is the liklihood of 4 ppl going out in 3 hands? He's told us that 3 are forced in during the next two hands, not knowing their hands we only expect 1.5 of them to go out there, so we need to get 3 others from somewhere, and everyone is very tight on a satellite bubble.

Given the very high fold equity in this spot and the strength of the hand even if you do get called (some percentage of the time), I'd say you are taking this hand down most of the time, and the chances of busting 4 isn't much better than 50/50.