mtdesmoines, on Thursday, July 12th, 2007, 8:33 AM, said:
Smooth call or min-raise, and get more action on the river. Here's why:Like everyone else said, only a 9 can proceed with the hand if you shove, and a nine is shoving almost any river anyway, so we'll be ready and waiting for him there. But I don't think this is a nine. He didn't raise $14 PF with a nine unless it's a pair of nines, and if that's the case, we just laid a nasty on him. The only hand that will beat us on the river that he could be holding that we're folding out by shoving this turn is two pair, and two pair only has 4 outs anyway. We don't need to shovel to kill/dodge a hand htat's looking for four outs. Conversely, if he has a set, he's likely not folding the turn; likewise we aren't folding our straight on the river even if the board pairs, so pushing to protect only protects us against two pair, unlikely with the PF raise, and the odds of the hand getting ahead of us is a distant threat anyway.Smooth call or min raise.
You said only a 9 can proceed with the hand but then say if he has a set he's likely not folding? Whatever you meant, I personally have seen plenty of people call raises/pushes with sets here after slowplaying them on the flop. It's because generally they're bad players and they shouldn't be slowplaying sets on flops like that in the first place.Also, a 9 might not shove the river if the board pairs when he is checked too. Why? Because the only hands that are calling any bet on that board once it pairs are full houses, better straights, or hands he splits with (other 9's).Also, this is 6 handed and a 9 is very much in his range. If we call we basically screw ourselves on the river because we act first and if we check, he checks anything but a 9 on a non paired board and bets his house if the board pairs. If WE bet river he folds sets unless board pairs and even if he has a 9 and the board doesn't pair he calls in most cases instead of pushing over our bet(once again for same reason, anything that calls his push he splits with or loses too).We have to raise turn.